With the approach of puck drop for the 2024-25 NHL season, there’s no better time for bold predictions. As rosters and line combinations shape up for the season, we can understand how things might play out. While a select few of these predictions will look genius months down the road, almost all of them will not come close to fruition. However, looking back at some bold predictions before the start of the season always brings some fun for the fans. Here are my three bold predictions for the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2024-25.
Jake Guentzel Wins the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy
For the second time this year, Jake Guentzel will experience a change of scenery after seven seasons with the Pittsburgh Penguins. Guentzel continued to produce at an elite level away from Sidney Crosby, proving to the hockey world that he is a system-proof player. In other words, Guentzel can thrive in any environment, no matter the circumstances. He doesn’t need a particular linemate or system to perform at the top of his game. However, what if head coach Jon Cooper gave him one of the game’s best passers (Nikita Kucherov) and minutes on the top power-play unit in the National Hockey League last season?
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With Steven Stamkos out of the picture for the 2024-25 season, Guentzel will fill his role in the deadly Tampa Bay top six and power play unit. Stamkos notched 19 goals on the man advantage last season, while Guentzel’s career-best in power-play goals is 13. He was part of an abysmal unit in Pittsburgh last season, scoring just four power-play goals in roughly 200 minutes of ice time. The possibilities are endless, but Daily Faceoff has him on the left circle. If Stamkos could post stellar goal-scoring numbers with Cooper’s deployment, we imagine Guentzel could do the same.
Furthermore, Guentzel has outscored Stamkos by 13 goals at 5-on-5 over the past five seasons. Guentzel scored a career-high 40 goals with the Penguins in 2021-22, which ranked 16th amongst skaters across the entire season. BetMGM gave him the 14th-best odds to capture the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy as the NHL’s leading goal-scorer during the regular season. Will Guentzel be able to outscore Auston Matthews on the Lightning’s top line next season? Only time will tell.
J.J. Moser Becomes Victor Hedman’s Permanent Defense Partner
In a trade to clear salary cap space, the Lightning sent Mikhail Sergachev to the Utah Hockey Club in exchange for multiple valuable assets. One of those assets was a 24-year-old, NHL-ready shutdown defender named J.J. Moser. Although he’s projected on the bottom pairing with Nick Perbix, Moser is a dark horse candidate to fill a first-pairing role for the Lightning. His exposure to elite competition at a young age makes him a suitable defense partner for Victor Hedman.
In recent years, Hedman has slowed down with age, and that outcome occurs for most players. The age curve exists for hockey players, where most peak in their mid-20s and start to slow down in their early 30s. With age, Hedman has sacrificed the defensive side of the game, which allows him to post stellar offensive numbers every season. Microstats tracked by Corey Sznjader from All Three Zones show Moser is a shutdown rush defender, which makes him a perfect fit alongside the veteran blueliner.
Moser’s play style will allow Hedman to continue to take risks offensively. The trade-off consists of the Lightning giving up a few minor scoring changes in exchange for one high-danger one. Adding Moser to the picture will allow the Lightning to move away from a “run and gun” style and post more consistent underlying metrics at 5-on-5. There’s no denying Moser has the talent, and we predict him to be a top-pairing caliber guy by the end of the season.
The Lightning Finish Top 2 in the Atlantic Division
The accuracy of the previous two predictions dictates if this third bold prediction comes true. The Atlantic Division will likely shake out similarly to last season, with the best teams slightly downgrading. As for the Lightning, the team remained relatively the same with a Stamkos for Guentzel swap. Teams that finished below the Lightning last season, the Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators, made minor improvements.
The Lightning’s success depends on how well the top line clicks. If the trio ends up being the best line in the league, the team will finish near the top of the Atlantic Division. However, if the top line flops, we can see the Lightning fighting for a Wildcard spot like last season. We anticipate the top trio to dominate play, given that Guentzel can create offense in any situation, which leads us to this third bold prediction for this season.
What are your bold predictions for the Lightning’s 2024-25 season?
