If you have been under a rock this season, the biggest storyline for the Toronto Maple Leafs has been the consistency and exceptional play of forward William Nylander. His production has even outshined that of Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner and as a result, he earned a massive payday.
Nylander and the Maple Leafs agreed to an eight-year, $92 million deal– an AAV of $11.5 million– making this the highest total value contract given in team history. Whether you feel this deal is fair or not for Nylander, his play this season has got him to the point where now he’s in discussion as an elite-level winger in the league. Nylander currently has the same number of points as Connor McDavid and more than other big names like Mikko Rantanen, Elias Pettersson, Leon Draisaitl, Brayden Point and Sidney Crosby. It’s been a long time coming, but here is how he got to this point.
Stalemate and First Three Seasons
The last time Nylander and the Maple Leasfs went through this process, it was a stressful and tenuous one. Both sides were at a stalemate and a deal didn’t get done until the final minutes before the deadline.
While both avoided a disastrous outcome, Nylander returned but didn’t have the production that met the team’s expectations. The struggles were evident as missing training camp and most of the season had a profound impact on his game, finishing with 27 points in 54 games. At that point, Nylander had to work his way back and block out the noise as media and the fan base were frustrated that he held out for that kind of production.
Nylander would then follow that up with a strong bounce back in 2019-20 with 31 goals and 59 points in 68 games. However, the season was then cut short because of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to Hockey Reference, Nylander would’ve been on-pace for a 70-point season and his production in the bubble in 2020-21 (42 points) would’ve had him on a 63-point pace.
While those numbers were decent– even his underlying metrics were strong– they weren’t jaw dropping as Nylander had that kind of production before his entry-level contract expired. For what he was making at that time, his production reflected the value of the contract as he was hovering around that 60-70-point range in his first three seasons. The offense was clearly there, but the questions surrounding his commitment to defense and not being engaged at times was still evident. Head coach Sheldon Keefe has stated in the past that he needed to be pushed in order to be better.
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The team needed Nylander to take a big step forward and did he ever.
Post-Covid Surge, Elite Production
While the first three seasons presented its highs and lows for Nylander, his last two– including this season– have been phenomenal. Especially when it comes to putting up the points and consistency from year to year. He recorded back-to-back 80-point seasons (80 in 2021-22 and 87 in 2022-23) and is on-pace to shatter those numbers this season with a potential 45-goal, 115-point season. As a result, he leads the Maple Leafs in points with 54, including stealing the spotlight during the Global Series in Sweden.
Many wondered if he can replicate the production from the previous seasons and he has done just that. Over the last three seasons, Nylander has been one of the most consistent point producers. Since 2021-22, he ranks in the top-15 in goals with 95, points with 221 and is in the top-20 in even strength points with 140. He also finds himself in the top-25 in assists with 126 and 22nd in points per game with 1.11. Nylander has shown that he can be among the best of the best and be able to do it on a consistent basis. This season alone, he has only gone four games without recording a point. That itself is impressive.
Even his underlying numbers at five-on-five have been consistent during that span when it comes to shot generation and scoring chances for. Here is a breakdown of his numbers in key statistical categories.
| Season | xGF% | SCF% | HDCF% |
| 2021-22 | 55.86 | 56.06 | 55.48 |
| 2022-23 | 55.88 | 56.26 | 58.65 |
| 2023-24 | 55.20 | 55.65 | 55.37 |
This season, he is above 55% in expected goals for, scoring chances for and high danger chances for. Nylander has truly taken advantage of being a dominant and dangerous player in the offensive zone this season. Not just at 5v5, but in all situations, even producing on the penalty kill as he scored his first two short-handed goals of his career this season.
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In his prime years, Nylander’s starting to be a well-rounded contributor with his shot and play away from the puck to break up plays and win battles.
Can he Live Up to Contract?
If there’s one thing that Nylander has shown to do as of late, is continue to get better with each season towards the end of his current contract. Even before he signed his deal, he was continuing to prove his worth and show he deserves a big contract while producing at an elite level. His play wasn’t hampered by the negotiations as things unfolded. Every step of the way, things looked promising.
The big question is, can Nylander continue to replicate his success now that he got his payday? Given how he isn’t bothered by constant criticism and how he has been able to do just that for three seasons, he definitely can live up to this contract and remain motivated. This is the best he has played and he intends on keeping it that way. Yes, investing that kind of money for someone who has had defensive deficiencies in the pat is risky, but he has improved overall in all aspects of the game. Keefe has seen his progression to this point and he’s excited to “coach this version of Willy”.
During his press conference, Nylander said he calls Toronto home and wants to win a championship here. He’s a game-changing player and has risen to the occasion, be it regular season or playoffs. Now, he has the chance to do that and be a part of something special over the next eight seasons.
Statistics from Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference and NHL.
