Winnipeg Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff, after re-signing Dylan Samberg and Morgan Barron to separate two-year deals earlier this month, has four restricted free agents (RFAs) remaining and just enough cap space to sign them.
Here, we’ll explore how the final $7.2 million will be spent.
A Raise for Vilardi
The majority of it will go to Vilardi, a budding star and the key piece in last month’s trade that sent disgruntled power forward Pierre-Luc Dubois to the Los Angeles Kings.
Vilardi, 23, is coming off a breakout campaign and is due a significant raise from the one-year contract worth $825,000 he played under last season. The natural centre — who played mostly wing last season — was chosen 11th overall by the Kings in 2017 and set set career highs in goals (23, just four fewer than Dubois) assists (18,) average time on ice (15:36,) and plus-minus (plus-10) last season. In 154-career NHL games, he has 41 goals and 37 assists for 78 points and two goals and two assists for four points in seven playoff games.
Cheveldayoff believes Vilardi, who suffered through some injuries in his formative years, is “just scratching the surface” of his potential. HE filed for arbitration and the hearing is set for July 28, but there’s no doubt Cheveldayoff will want to get a deal done before that to avoid any potential animosity or conflict between him and someone he hopes will be a foundation to build upon in the new era ahead.
Related: Jets and Gabe Vilardi Must Agree to a Deal Quick
A shorter-term “prove it” contract — which would give Vilardi a chance to establish himself on the top six — seems most likely at this point. A two-to-three year deal with an average annual value (AAV) around $4 million would work for both sides: it would ensure Vilardi is still an RFA under team control the next time he is due a new contract, while eliminating the chance Vilardi feels he’s leaving future money on the table by signing long term now for relatively cheaply.
Such a deal would be in line with what others have inked in other markets. Drake Batherson, Victor Olofsson, Kyle Palmieri, and Alex Tuch all produced in a similar fashion to Vilardi (around 20 goals and 40 points) and make similar money.
Projected cap hit: $4 million
A Bridge for Kupari
A two-year bridge is most likely for Rasmus Kupari, whose ceiling is not entirely clear but who has the potential to blossom with increased opportunity.
Kupari, a 23-year-old Finnish centre who can also play wing, was selected by the Kings 20th overall in 2018 but has not established himself as a dominant player to this point of his career. The 6-foot-2, 200-pounder has had some flashes of brilliance, but has struggled with his two-way play, confidence, and consistency.
Last season, he played a career-high 66 NHL games and recorded three goals and 12 assists for 15 points and won 54.6 per cent of his faceoffs, but in 130-career NHL games, has just 29 points and has bounced between the AHL and the NHL.
Kupari could simply be a late bloomer offensively and it seems he’ll get the chance to challenge for a bottom-six role. He is coming off his entry-level contact that slide twice and will be due a slight raise from the $1,050,833 AAV it carried, but not much. His AAV should be similar to Barron’s, who is 24 and had 21 points last season, his full first NHL campaign.
Projected cap hit: $1.25 million
Modest Deals for Defensemen
The two remaining RFA defensemen are trending in different directions, but will ultimately end up with similar salaries.
Declan Chisholm enjoyed a splendid 2022-23 campaign with the Manitoba Moose and seems poised to push for a full-time NHL job in the fall. The left-shooter, chosen in the fifth round in 2018, was a consistent presence on the Moose top pairing and recorded five goals and 38 assists for 43 points in 59 games and four assists in five Calder Cup Playoff games. He was also named an AHL All-Star for the first time in his career.
The 23-year-old has reached the end of his entry-level contract and a new one or two-year deal should come with an AAV around $900,000. He has played just two NHL games and there’s no guarantee he makes the Jets considering veterans Neal Pionk and Nate Schmidt are creating a logjam of defensemen and Ville Heinola will also be in the mix.
Chisholm’s projected cap hit: $900,000
Meanwhile, Logan Stanley is a player the Jets just can’t seem to quit on despite his chances of being a full-time regular dimmer than ever.
The towering 24-year-old has been a long-term project since being drafted 18th overall in 2016, and the project has not turned out well. Other than his brief rise to a regular in the shortened 2021-22 season, he has been a disappointment.
Cheveldayoff was not willing to lose him for nothing, and tendered Stanley a qualifying offer despite being on the outside looking in for much of last season and being unable to stay healthy. He suffered two separate long-term injuries and ended up playing just 19 games, recording one goal and two assists for three points.
While six-foot-seven and 230 pounds, Stanley is not overly physical and will never be the second coming of Zdeno Chara — at best, he is an adequate third-pairing defensemen. Chisholm and Heinola are younger and have more upside.
Stanley requested a trade at the Trade Deadline, but one did not ultimately materialize, indicating Cheveldayoff either didn’t receive any offers or believes Stanley’s trade value is higher than it actually is. A sign-and-trade is a possibility here.
Stanley, who is coming off a two-year deal with a $900,000 AAV, will make $1 million as that was the qualifying offer required to keep him an RFA.
Stanley’s projected cap hit: $1 million
Total cap hit of all four RFAs: $7,150,000
Jets Could Have More Cap Space Before Season Begins
As we can see, signing the four players above would put the Jets right up at the cap ceiling as they’re currently configured. However, if Cheveldayoff were to trade Mark Scheifele ($6.15 million AAV) and/or Connor Hellebuyck ($6.166 million AAV) before the season begins, he would have more space at his disposal (depending on the contracts inherited in the return.)
