The Winnipeg Jets have done a lot of good things in their first 15 games.
The club is beginning to look like a serious threat and sits at 8-5-2 at the important U.S. Thanksgiving threshold, a record good for third in the Western Conference. Since a sleepy 1-3-0 start, they’ve lost in regulation just twice and have put some early points in the bank.
5-on-5 Play The Straw That Stirs the Drink
There are many reasons the Jets are increasingly looking like a “wagon,” but the biggest reason is their strong play at five-on-five.
The Jets have controlled play more often than not at even strength and have excelled at controlling the offensive zone, attacking off the rush, and generating more chances than their opponents.
Doing better than your opponents where the majority of a game is played is a pretty good sign. At five-on-five, the Jets sit in the NHL’s top 10 in the following categories, according to Moneypuck.com: expected goals percentage (53.11 per cent, 9th) CORSI for percentage (55.48 per cent, sixth) and Fenwick for percentage (55.02 per cent, fifth.)
The Jets also have two of the NHL’s top 50 lines in expected goals percentage: The Mason Appleton/Adam Lowry/Nino Niederreiter trio is 31st at 61.4 per cent and the Nikolaj Ehlers/Vladislav Namestnikov/Cole Perfetti trio is 48th at 58.6 per cent.
These two lines are not the only reasons, but big reasons the Jets have a plus-10 goal differential at even strength (42-32.)
Jets Benefitting From Increased Forward Depth, Balanced Attack
The Jets have scored the third-most goals in the NHL with 55 and are fourth in goals per game with 3.67. For the first time in a long time, they are getting consistent contributions up and down the lineup.
The first line has been on fire, especially of late. The Kyle Connor/Mark Scheifele/Alex Iafallo trio has put up eight goals and 18 assists for 26 points in the past five games and is adept at creating turnovers that lead to chances.
Connor, after scoring a low-by-his-own-standards 31 last season, looks determined to be in the Rocket Richard race this season and is tied with the Toronto Maple Leafs’ Auston Matthews — a much more ballyhooed player — for the NHL goal lead with 13. Connor also leads the Jets in points with 20.
Scheifele, on Connor’s heels with 18 points, isn’t on track to score 42 like last season, but is on pace to easily surpass the 68 points he recorded.
But scoring goes beyond the usual suspects now, which makes the team much harder to play against and a more sustained threat. General Manager Kevin Cheveldayoff made increasing forward depth a priority over the past number of months, and a combination of trades for viable NHLers and homegrown players taking another step in their development has given the Jets a more balanced attack.
Each line has taken its turn driving the offence and the Jets have eight forwards with eight-plus points: Perfetti, Niederreiter, Appleton, Lowry, and Ehlers in addition to the Connor, Iafallo, and Scheifele.
The defence is also chipping in, something head coach Rick Bowness has stressed the importance of since day one of his tenure as bench boss. Blue liners have combined for 36 points, which is 22 per cent of the Jets’ 153 total points. That is slightly behind last season’s percentage, when defensemen had 192 points for 27 per cent of the team’s 691 total points, but still solid.
Josh Morrissey has picked up where he left off after his dominant 76-point 2022-23, with 14 points (one goal, 13 assists) while Brenden Dillon leads all defensemen with four goals.
“Each line has as bit of a different identity. I think they are all playing to their strengths,” Morrissey said after the Jets beat the New Jersey Devils 6-3 on Nov. 14.
“When we are a good team, which we are, it starts at our own end and builds from there. At the end of the day, they are all producing off good o-zone play with guys in front of the net. You have to go there to score, as everyone has always said in the game of hockey. I think a lot of good things are happening there for sure.”
Josh Morrissey
Surprise Performers Have Exceeded Expectations
Everyone expects Connor and Scheifele to produce, but a few others have exceeded expectations.
Cole Perfetti has come out of his cocoon and is blossoming into a top-end NHLer, posting 13 points (five goals, eight assists) and dominating analytically alongside Ehlers and Namestnikov.
The 2020 10th-overall pick is riding a four-game goal streak and seven game point streak and has rightfully seen his ice time tick up. The trust he’s beginning to gain from the coaching staff is illustrated by his promotion to the top power-play unit and his more frequent late-game deployment.
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The knock against Perfetti has never been on his ability — his playmaking and shooting skills are undeniable — but rather his durability. His first two professional campaigns were riddled with injuries: he missed 31 games last season due to two separate ailments, and in his rookie 2021-22, was knocked out for the remainder of the season in mid-February by a Jamie Oleksiak hit and suffered a separate injury while rehabbing that one.
Four injuries in 69-career games — especially for a player who is undersized by NHL standards and has put himself in vulnerable positions too often — put him under the microscope entering this season. So far, the microscope has only showed him getting into a good position for this summer’s contract negotiations (Perfetti is on the last year of his entry-level contract and will be a restricted free agent this summer.)
He hasn’t been the only pleasant surprise. Appleton, part of that dominant third line with Lowry and Niederreiter, has 11 points and is only five away from matching the 16 he recorded in 41 games last season. He seems poised to easily best his career-high of 25, set in the shortened 2020-21 campaign.
Dillon’s four goals — all scored in the past five games — has also been a interesting storyline. The rugged defenseman’s career high is six, set with the Dallas Stars over 80 games in 2013-14 when he was 23.
Jets Still Have Room For Improvement in the Crease and on Special Teams
While there’s plenty to be excited about, not everything is sunshine, lollipops, and rainbows.
Connor Hellebuyck’s play in goal has been below par for his standards and his 2.99 goals against average, .899 save percentage, .417 quality starts percentage, and -3.4 goals saved above average are all decidedly un-Vezina-like. Despite that, the 30-year-old — who signed a massive contract extension last month that will make him one of the NHL’s highest-paid net minders through 2030-31 — remains confident his process is solid.
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“What I’m looking for in my game right now is stealing a few more goals and then the stats will hopefully just come. We’re obviously playing a different way. We’re playing really good defensive hockey and I’m not getting as many filler shots. So if you’re just looking at stats, ‘Oh, his season is bad.’ No. My game is right, my details are great. My movement is great. I’m just going to build on what I have and try and be patient,” he told the Winnipeg Free Press lately.
I’m confident my game is right,” he insisted. “I’m watching all of my details. Everything is right. I just got to be patient for things to come.” (From ‘Hellebuyck holding his head up high, Winnipeg Free Press, Nov. 13, 2023.)
The special teams also require work. The power play has started to get things turned around after a dreadful four-for-34 start, scoring six goals in its past six games to increase its percentage to 19.64, but the penalty kill continues to be leaky.
They’ve regressed badly coming off a season where they killed off 82.43 per cent of their shorthanded situations — and used big kills to gain momentum. The penalty kill has killed off just 72.22 per cent of their shorthanded situations and have allowed at least one power play goal in 12 games.
Skepticism is Warranted, But Jets Are a Solid Spot
If the Jets can shore up their goaltending and special teams, they’ll be even more formidable. In fact, if the current strong trends continue, they might face the very good problem of figuring out where to put Gabriel Vilardi, who is working his way back from an MCL injury suffered in the third game of the season (he’s currently practicing in a non-contact jersey.)
Being in a playoff spot by U.S. Thanksgiving, which is Thursday, is a good sign for a team entering the season generally considered to finish somewhere in the middle. 77 per cent of salary-cap era teams in a playoff spot by the holiday have ultimately qualified for the postseason.
While there’s buy-in and a strong identity right now, anyone following the Jets should take any development with a healthy dose of skepticism. Leeriness is warranted until the team proves they can play to their strengths and show strong character for an entire season.
This is hardly the first time the Jets have looked good through 15: last season, they were even better at 10-4-1 and the good times rolled nearly uninterrupted until mid-January. However, when push came to shove and adversity came knocking, they fell back into bad habits and tumbled down the standings, barely sneaking into the playoffs and getting quickly dispatched in the first round.