We are in a “hot take” economy and sports punditry is no exception. With Winnipeg Jets training camp around the corner, it is time to plant some flags for the upcoming season. Here are 10 hot takes for the Jets’ 2023-24 season:
1. Nikolaj Ehlers Will Finish in the Top 25 in Scoring This Year
For reference, Evgeni Malkin, Zach Hyman, and Brady Tkachuk tied for 25th in scoring last year, each with 83 points. That would mean, relative to last year, Ehlers would need to score at a point-per-game pace, a feat he nearly accomplished in the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season (.98 points per game).
In fact, Ehlers ranked 23rd in points per game that season, sandwiched nicely between Cale Makar and Ryan O’Reilly. Talent has never been the issue; health has.
However, contrary to popular belief, Nik Ehlers is not injury prone. Prior to the 2021-22 season, Ehlers played in 416 of a possible 455 games equating to a 91.4% playing rate. It is only in the last two years that his playing rate dropped to 65.2%.
Predicting health is a fool’s errand, but I’ll venture that Ehlers plays 75 games this season and scores at a rate of 1.2 points per game. That yields 90 points, which would have been good for 19th last year. With Blake Wheeler no longer monopolizing first-line/right-wing minutes, there is no reason that Ehlers’ paltry 16:36 per game (career) can’t significantly increase, paving the way for the breakout season that Jets’ fans have been salivating for.
2. Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck Will Both Sign Long-term with the Jets
If you’ve come to this space looking for breaking news content, I am sorry to disappoint you. That said, in 2023, opinions ARE facts, so based on circumstantial evidence, I believe both Jets’ stalwarts will sign long-term contracts with the Jets.
A “no news is good news” philosophy dictates that perhaps the market for both players is not as robust as many pundits believed. It is unfathomable to me that the Jets’ plan for this upcoming season is to “play it by ear” with Scheifele and Hellebuyck. The Jets have openly stated their desire to remain competitive, and barring similar Pierre-Luc Dubois trade magic, the only option is to put ink to paper.
3. Gabriel Vilardi, Alex Iaffalo, and Rasmus Kupari Will Outproduce Blake Wheeler and Pierre-Luc Dubois From 2022-23
Wheeler and Dubois combined for 43 goals and 75 assists last season. Yet, Vilardi, Iafallo (and to a much lesser extent Kupari), had very good seasons of their own. The three totaled 39 goals and 53 assists in 2022-23. For context, Vilardi and Iafallo would have ranked fourth and sixth in goals above replacement (GAR – is a one size fits all number that encapsulates how valuable an individual player is in terms of on-ice play, relative to a ‘replacement level’ player) on the Jets last season:
Perhaps this hot take is more lukewarm, because for it to happen, Vilardi only needs to improve his totals marginally, and Kupari needs to play a full season. Not an unreasonable expectation.
More importantly, both Vilardi and Iaffalo are appreciably better in the defensive end than Dubois or Wheeler. This is not to say Dubois wasn’t the best player in the trade but rather the sum of the parts may be greater than the whole.
4. Cole Perfetti Will Lead the Team in Assists
Cole Perfetti can pass the puck. Vision is a skill that can’t be taught, and Perfetti’s is 20/20. Now he just needs the opportunity to maximize that skill.
The Jets’ ideal first power-play unit should be Scheifele, Ehlers, Perfetti, Kyle Connor, and Josh Morrissey. I’m almost certain that head coach Rick Bowness will look to shoehorn Nino Niederreiter or Adam Lowry into the mix as a net front presence, but that would be counterintuitive.
On the power play, Perfetti’s expected goals for per 60 (xGF/60) and Corsi for per 60 (CF/60) were equal to Kyle Connor (xGF/60 and CF/60 are a measure of overall utility relative to ice time). Perfetti’s actual production was not commensurate with his underlying stats, but he was very good on the man advantage. If Perfetti can get 200-plus minutes on the power play (and play center), it should set the stage for a breakout season.
5. The Jets’ Average Per Game Attendance Will Be Under 13,500
Last season, the Jets’ average per game attendance was 14,045, third lowest in the league. Low attendance relative to the rest of the league is understandable given that Canada Life Center is one of the smallest arenas in the NHL, but regardless, attendance trends for the Jets are not positive:
The Jets ranked 22nd in percentage of capacity in the NHL. As a result, True North Entertainment launched an aggressive “Forever Winnipeg” campaign to combat lagging attendance. The core concept was that Jets fans needed to increase their engagement to guarantee the validity of a team in Winnipeg. Metaphorically, it was like flipping the Monopoly board when things aren’t going your way.
Veiled threat or otherwise, True North Entertainment was preying on the insecurities of a small market fanbase. By all accounts, the campaign was met with resistance.
The Jets have launched some fan-friendlier season ticket packages, but the reality is, True North Entertainment took their customers for granted for far too long and now face the consequences. For the organization’s sake, I hope I am wrong with this prediction.
6. The Jets Will Have the Best Penalty Kill in the League
Hear me out. Last season, the Jets had the seventh-best penalty kill. With the addition of Iafallo (who is a good penalty killer), the return of Axel Jonsson-Fjallby, and penalty-killing savant Adam Lowry, the Jets are primed to improve on last season’s finish.
7. Dylan Samberg Will Replace Neal Pionk on the Second Pairing
This is where the Jets’ analytics team (should it exist) needs to step in. Dylan Samberg was objectively better defensively last season than Neal Pionk:
For context above, blue is good, and red is bad. Analytically, outside the 2020-21 season, Pionk has been a below-average defenseman. His offensive contributions, which are occasionally significant, do not mitigate his defensive liabilities. If Bowness is true to his defensive mantra, then it is only a matter of time before Samberg’s minutes exceed those of Pionk.
8. Josh Morrissey Will Regress From Last Season
Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic developed a statistical measure called “Game Score.” The output uses publicly available stats that you find on an NHL stat sheet, assigns a weight to each, and combines them in a meaningful way to evaluate how productive a player was within in a single game.
Dubois led the Jets last season with an average Game Score of 0.99. Josh Morrissey was second (0.93) and Connor third (0.90). The issue is that Morrissey did not have a Game Score above 0.7 from the end of December to the beginning of March. He started and ended the season on fire but was only above average for the rest.
This is not to denigrate Morrissey’s season in any way; he was incredible. It’s just that there were swaths of inconsistent play that lead to uncertainty. Morrissey was asked to carry a heavier burden at the beginning of the season with the litany of Jets’ injuries, which may have worn him out. For his career, Morrisey’s 2022-23 season is an outlier, and it’s never a sound strategy to bet on an outlier.
9. Patrik Laine Will Score 40 Goals Again This Season
This is more Jets adjacent, but we’re counting it. The gifted Finn has had a rough go of it since his departure from the Jets back in 2020. After three straight 30-goal seasons to start his career, Patrik Laine has failed to reach that plateau again. A slew of injuries and coaching malcontent have derailed a once very promising career.
Time heals all wounds, so this hot take is more wish casting than anything else. I refuse to believe he has lost any of his incandescent talent at the ripe age of 25; he just needs to stay healthy. Say what you will about Mike Babcock, but he is a real NHL head coach, which bodes well for Laine.
Parting is sweet sorrow, but I am rooting for Laine to regain his old form.
10. The Jets Will Finish with a Better Regular Season Record Than Last Season
In the words of a disillusioned cowboy, “I wish I knew how to quit you” (Jets).
All looked lost at the end of the 2022-23 season. However, with the Dubois trade and Schefiele and Hellebuyck returning to start the season, there is reason for optimism.
The Jets finished 46-33-3 last season despite playing the last 41 games at, or just below .500 hockey. The team’s underlying metrics (Corsi and expected goals) were better than in years past and Hellebuyck returned to form.
Ultimately, their success depends on how well the new trade pieces assimilate and Bowness’ ability to incorporate them. The Jets will look to turn the page for the 2022-23 season and “drop it like it’s hot.”
