The Winnipeg Jets wrapped up their “first half” on Jan. 27 against the Toronto Maple Leafs, falling 4-2 in what became their third consecutive loss. Now, there are legitimate reasons for the recent struggles, but some course correction is needed.
Many fans shudder at the thought of the past January and February struggles for the Jets, but why is this team different? Ultimately, they need to be different, as a few good games after a much-needed break would be a boost for the Jets after losing three games in a row for the third time this season.
Injury Relief
It feels like a cop-out in normal situations to play the injury card as a reason for a struggling team, but this is one of those times where it is a legitimate explanation. Few teams can function when they’re down two top-line forwards, and in one game, were also down their number one defender.
Gabriel Vilardi returned late in the first half after missing time with an undisclosed injury and immediately reclaimed his spot on the top line. That top line, however, is still missing Mark Scheifele, who has now missed six games with a lower-body injury.
Ideally, Scheifele returns when the season resumes after the All-Star Break, and that’s an immediate boost. The biggest issue over the last stretch has been a disparity of chances, largely caused by a lack of a true top center. With Adam Lowry and Vladislav Namestnikov filling the gap in Scheifele’s absence, the loss was felt.
In a small sample size, Scheifele, Vilardi, and Kyle Connor have put up fantastic numbers. That said, it’ll be interesting to see if they can find their form quickly once the team gets back in action.
Past Troubles
Despite putting up more sustainable performances, the fear of complete collapse remains after multiple instances of that exact thing happening. Most recently, the fall from grace that happened last season began in January. After sitting near the top of the conference for most of the first half, the Jets went into a free fall that had them fighting for their playoff lives, only to hold on and immediately get sent packing by the Vegas Golden Knights.
Flashback to 2018-19 where the same thing happened to a high-flying Jets team. After their incredible 2017-18, they came out the next season without missing a beat. That is until they hit January and fell off a cliff. They hung around, but their underlying numbers plummeted and eventually, they fell in the first round.
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The underlying numbers are key, as in both 2018-19 and 2022-23, the Jets’ successes were coming at a fairly unsustainable clip. With that in mind, there should be more faith in the 2023-24 Jets. Their successes have come on the back of solid offensive efforts and incredible defence, both of which are sustainable in the Rick Bowness system.
With the return of a number one center and perhaps another on the way through trade, this team should be back to their winning ways as long as they play like they did during their nine-game win streak. Couple that with the Vezina-Trophy level play of Connor Hellebuyck, it’s hard to picture this year’s team spinning into a free fall like in years past.
Keys to Strong Start
There isn’t one clear solution to avoiding a slide, but there are a few things that can be done to help the team get off to a strong start in the second half. Notably, a reset of the special teams units is long past due. The Jets’ power play has slipped below 16% on the season and has yet to take any strides in the right direction.
More shots are being generated, but the successes are limited. Ideally, there needs to be a bigger focus on the tactical side of things, prioritizing movement and better positioning for the shooters. Personnel-wise, there are a few areas to be upgraded, but personnel doesn’t matter without a solid tactical plan.
In terms of personnel, there’s also an outside shot that the Jets add someone through a trade to better solidify their forward group and make a legitimate difference on the power play. The need for a forward was apparent in the absence of Scheifele, and with the deadline approaching, this might be the time to put the feelers out for a second-line center that can step up if needed.
Once the Jets return to action on Feb. 6, they’ll have a quick two-game trip to Pennsylvania for a visit to both the Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers before returning home to face the Penguins again. Those first few games will be a great indicator of how the team will look once at full strength again and should help to dispel any worry of collapse if they come out strong.
