The Winnipeg Jets, who were the toast of the NHL through the first quarter of the season and set a new league record by winning 15 of their first 16 games, are now in free-fall mode. Their utter dominance through October and much of November now seems a distant memory as they have lost seven of their past 10 — including four straight — and are no longer the NHL’s top team or even first in the Central Division.
There are a number of reasons for the Jets’ four-game losing streak specifically, and here, we’ll dive into four of them.
1: Lack of Overall Scoring
This author has written almost 800 articles for The Hockey Writers over nearly seven years and many have been deep-dive analyses. However, sometimes the issue is right in one’s face and doesn’t require hours of pouring over advanced stats.
This is one of those cases where a simple truism applies: you will struggle to win hockey games if you barely score.
The Jets have just six goals in the losing streak, and were held to one three times (against the Los Angeles Kings Nov. 27, against the Dallas Stars Dec. 1, and against the St. Louis Blues Dec. 3.)
Mark Scheifele has just one goal during the losing streak, with his third-period tally against the Blues his first in seven games. Gabriel Vilardi has only one as well, with his goal against the Kings being his only one in six. Kyle Connor and Vladislav Namestnikov have zero in the losing streak and over their past six. Cole Perfetti has two — both came against the Golden Knights and are his lone goals in his past 14.
One #NHLJets fan could be heard screaming "Wake the f— up" as that second period neared its conclusion.
— Mike McIntyre (@mikemcintyrewpg) December 4, 2024
I suspect coach Scott Arniel may have some similar words behind closed doors for his group.
That’s not nearly good enough for the guys who were most responsible for their team leading the NHL in goals until the current slump, and the guys put on the top six to produce offence.
2: Power Play Hitting a Brick Wall
Part of the reason the goal total is so low is because the once red-hot power play has gone ice cold. Sure, the near 40 per cent clip they were operating at by mid November screamed regression, but it seems the power play has gone from zooming along at 100 kilometres per hour directly to hitting a brick wall.
The NHL’s former best regime has been locked in neutral, with just one goal in 10 opportunities over the losing streak and two goals in 16 opportunities over their past six. Both units have struggled to gain the zone, and their puck movement hasn’t been crisp. Being without Nikolaj Ehlers, who is on the shelf for at least a week to 10 days with a lower-body injury he suffered against the Golden Knights, obviously isn’t helping matters.
They are down to a 30.67 per cent efficiency, which is still good, but more indicative of past success rather than anything they have done lately. They have been surpassed by the New Jersey Devils for first in the league.
3: Breakdowns at Key Times
The Jets weren’t far off from at the very least capturing a point against the Golden Knights and Stars as both contests were tied with less than 10 minutes to go. However, breakdowns at key times led to Winnipeg being the regulation loser in both.
Against the Golden Knights, it was the usually-defensively-reliable Namestnikov losing track of his man, Brett Howden, which allowed the Manitoban to get wide open for a cross-ice tap in with just 4:05 left to go.
William Karlsson sets up Brett Howden for his second of the game with a BEAUTIFUL backhand pass! 🎯🔥 pic.twitter.com/ea7uWA2JXf
— TSN (@TSN_Sports) November 30, 2024
Against the Stars, it was Josh Morrissey getting twisted up in a pretzel in a one-on-one situation with Mason Marchment and screening his own goaltender, allowing Marchment to backhand it past Connor Hellebuyck with 7:37 to go.
The wasted chances to snag a couple of so-called “loser points” stings even more when you see that the now-Central-leading Minnesota Wild have one fewer win than the Jets with 17, but four overtime losses to go along with four in regulation. The Jets have eight regulation losses and zero in extra time.
Against the Blues, it was matter of getting “too cute,” as head coach Scott Arniel said, during four-on-four play in the second period. Trying to be fancy rather than playing direct “north/south” hockey led to the Jets missing their defensive assignments and surrendering two goals in 39 seconds. The 0-0 tie turning into a two-goal deficit visibly deflated the club and was ultimately insurmountable.
“There are some mental things that are happening where you go ‘wow, where did that come from?'” Arniel said after the loss to the Blues.
These breakdowns are an alarming recurring trend for a team that was finding ways to win even when it wasn’t playing its best and now is finding ways to lose.
4: Arniel’s Player Deployment
Arniel is not blameless for the losing streak. Just three weeks ago, he was voted NHL.com’s frontrunner for the Jack Adams Award, but flaws in his player deployment strategy are beginning to show and are not befitting of someone worthy of the honour of NHL’s best coach.
His decision to continue to play Logan Stanley over anyone else defies all logic. We’ve spilled plenty of (virtual) ink over the years here at THW as to why Stanley shouldn’t be in the lineup, but the big defenseman seems exempt from accountability for his poor play and many penalties from a third-straight head coach.
Standards that apply to everyone else do not apply to Stanley and it’s become comical how much he is overvalued for his size. For example, Arniel spoke of the need to “load manage” Ville Heinola upon his recent return to the lineup from ankle surgery and healthy-scratched the Finnish defender against the Golden Knights and Stars after he played two games. However, he has seen no need to load-manage Stanley in a similar fashion despite him missing eight-straight games with injury. He has played three straight since returning to the lineup against the Golden Knights, has been blown by for a goal, and has taken three minor penalties.
Related: Logan Stanley Needs to Be Pulled From Winnipeg Jets Lineup
Arniel’s decision to continue to play Scheifele on the top line instead sitting him for a game or two and allowing him to recover from the hand/wrist injury he’s been dealing with for weeks is also odd. Scheifele — who took faceoffs for the first time in five games against the Blues — has not been effective at all since sustaining whatever injury he has, with just one goal and two assists (both assists came on empty netters) in his past seven and a minus-six rating.
Jets Head Back on the Road Needing to Dig Deep
The Jets can make excuses all they want — having Ehlers and Dylan Samberg out of the lineup, being tired due to their recent cross-country six-game road trip, having bad luck at the worst times — but the truth is every team goes through adversity in a long 82-game season. The elite teams find ways to overcome it.
“At the end of the day, we’ve got to look at ourselves in the mirror and just really dig deep because this isn’t going to get any easier,” defenseman Haydn Fleury said.
With all respect to Fleury, the Jets’ quality of opponent is set to ease for the rest of the week. They head back on the road for two against beatable opponents in the Buffalo Sabres (Dec. 5) and Chicago Blackhawks (Dec. 7) before returning home for another winnable game with the Columbus Blue Jackets (Dec. 8.)
If Arniel’s club can’t get things turned around against these teams, we’ll have to start entertaining the possibility they aren’t an elite team at all, but an average one that happened to start hot.
