The Winnipeg Jets have started the season a pedestrian 4-3-2, with impressive wins over the Detroit Red Wings and Florida Panthers, but disappointing losses to the Calgary Flames and Montreal Canadiens.
At the forefront of these losses has been the lack of special teams. The Jets were one for their last 15 power plays coming into Monday, Oct. 30th’s game against the New York Rangers, where they went 0-3 and lost a close game in overtime. The lack of special teams is costing them wins, and it’s a huge early-season concern for a team with playoff aspirations.
Jets’ Special Teams Have Started the Season Extremely Slowly
The Jets’ power play currently sits at 27th best across the National Hockey League, rolling along at a lacklustre 11.8 percent. There is a mountain of issues schematically, as it seems they are funnelling every shot attempt to Kyle Connor, and defences across the league have caught on.
No matter what the issue is with the power play, it’s costing them games early on in the 2023-24 season. They had power plays late against both the Canadiens and Rangers, failed to convert on both, and went on to lose those games where they dominated at even-strength.
They recently changed the personnel on the top group, swapping Cole Perfetti and Nikolaj Ehlers in an attempt to spark momentum, and the Jets promptly went 0-3 in their first game with that grouping.
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Their penalty kill, in comparison to the league, is 28th at 71.9 percent. The Jets had a top-10 penalty kill on average a season ago, at 81.25 percent, which makes this early-season dip all the more concerning. It must be stated that we are dealing with a small sample size of only nine games, but this is something to monitor as the Jets head into their second month of action.
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If they are unable to improve the special teams, it could cost them even more valuable points down the stretch that are much-needed for a team that projects to be right near the playoff line. While their power play has been the main talk surrounding the team thus far, the penalty kill has been arguably just as big of a concern.
Scott Arniel after the Rangers game, stated that special teams were the difference, as it often has been early in the season: “Tonight, their power play scored, ours didn’t, and that’s the difference in the game. It really was. I thought we played a heck of a hockey game 5-on-5 against one of the top teams right now.”Arniel was correct in his assessment, as the Jets largely controlled play at even-strength against the 7-2-0 Rangers.
Jets Record Could be Improved, Given Their Even-Strength Play
As Arniel alluded to, the Jets have been playing great hockey at even strength against some of the top opponents in the NHL. Even against the 9-0-1 Vegas Golden Knights, the Jets controlled the expected goals (xG) and Corsi (shot attempts) but ultimately failed to solve Logan Thompson in a 5-3 loss on Oct. 19.
According to Money Puck, the post below shows how the Jets are playing in comparison to the rest of the NHL. What lies in the numbers is Arniel’s assessment, that the Jets are generating and preventing chances as a high-level at even-strength, but when it comes to special teams, the script completely flips.
With the Alex Iafallo, Gabriel Vilardi, and Rasmus Kupari trade which saw all three players come to Winnipeg, it is a shock that the Jets penalty kill has regressed. Iafallo is known for his two-way abilities, even earning top power play time. A player like Iafallo, and Vilardi when healthy, should be elevating these units into the elite category, but instead, a team effort has caused their special teams’ numbers to plummet.
The Jets are a much deeper team up front at even strength, and they have a Vezina Trophy-winning goaltender signed for the next seven years. If they can keep up this pace at five-on-five, have Connor Hellebuyck remain at this level of elite goaltending, and raise their special teams’ percentages over the next month or two, the Jets record is going to look a lot prettier within the Western Conference standings.
Their next test to get back on track is a big one, as they take on the Golden Knights for the second time this season, who remain without a loss in regulation. If they are to defeat them, their special teams will have to step up in a big way as they look to continue their momentum at even strength.
