With the 2023 NHL Draft officially in the rearview, the start of the league’s annual free agent period (July 1) is fast approaching. NHL history is littered with regrettable contracts that were signed during free agency and the 2023 edition promises to extend that storied tradition. Whether the missteps are realized immediately or further down the line, general managers are always ready to hand out eye-watering deals based on overvalued physical traits, unsustainable runs of production, or outdated reputations.
Of the 10 free-agent bust candidates I highlighted from last summer’s class, I’d argue that four provided negative value in the first year of their deals, with the rest playing around the level expected of them given the terms of their contracts. It’s the unfortunate reality faced by unrestricted free agents (UFAs) due to the NHL’s system, but that doesn’t give executives an excuse to be the ones to commit to such misguided contracts.
Related: Top 30 NHL Free Agents for 2023
This year’s list is limited to UFAs currently without a contract for the 2023-24 season at the time of this writing. Pending free agents who have re-signed with their teams ahead of July 1 were not considered, though it should be noted that the deals signed by Damon Severson (Columbus Blue Jackets), Ivan Barbashev (Vegas Golden Knights), and Andreas Athanasiou (Chicago Blackhawks) would warrant inclusion on this list. Now, let’s dive into five of the biggest potential busts of 2023 NHL Free Agency.
Patrick Kane, New York Rangers
2022-23 Statistics: 73 Games Played (GP) – 21 Goals (G) – 36 Assists (A) – 57 Points (PTS) – 19:19 Average Time on Ice (ATOI)
Future Hall-of-Fame winger Patrick Kane will be one of the most polarizing figures to hit the open market this summer, barring a return to the New York Rangers prior to July 1 who acquired him at the 2023 NHL Trade Deadline. The American playmaker underwent surgery earlier this month, and is slated to undergo a four-to-six-month recovery process before likely returning for the start of the 2023-24 season.
The discussion around his next contract revolves around whether, at age 34, he is both physically capable and motivated enough to warrant a multi-year deal at a significant cap hit. He grappled with the decision of whether or not to leave the only franchise he’s ever known, and the Chicago Blackhawks’ insistence on moving him to kickstart their rebuild took a toll.
Although Kane scored 92 points as recently as the 2021-22 season and was one of the NHL’s best puck carriers, his numbers in 2022-23 took a dive, though the Blackhawks’ tanking efforts didn’t help his cause. He scored below a point-per-game pace for the first time since the 2011-12 season and wasn’t exactly a difference-maker in the Rangers’ first-round loss in the playoffs despite tallying six points in seven games.
Kane’s defensive impacts have never been his calling card, and that aspect of his game has only declined with age and his spotty health record as of late. At this rate, it’s fair to question whether what he provides as an attacking force is enough to make up for his deficiencies defensively.
Contending teams will likely be enamored by the allure of a healthy Kane enjoying a renaissance in a more competitive situation under sheltered usage. Even so, his brief stint with the Rangers showed that interested suitors should be wary of committing too much by way of salary or term to a declining asset; championship pedigree be damned.
Matt Dumba, Minnesota Wild
2022-23 Statistics: 79 GP – 4 G – 10 A – 14 PTS – 21:17 ATOI
After years of the Minnesota Wild’s Matt Dumba being the topic of numerous trade rumours, it appears as though the veteran blueliner is set to finally become available while operating at the lowest point of his on-ice value. He has failed to eclipse 30 points in a season since scoring 50 points during the 2017-18 campaign, and his four-goal, 14-point output in 2022-23 represents the lowest full-season total of his NHL career.
Other than his age (he turns 29 next month) and reduced offensive production, questions remain about Dumba’s true defensive utility. He’s spent most of his Wild tenure alongside Jonas Brodin, arguably the NHL’s most-underrated defensive defenseman of the last decade, and it remains to be seen how he fares without his safety net.
Luckily for Dumba’s marketability, he’s a hot commodity as a physical right-handed defenseman with a strong reputation as a leader around the league, even while accounting for a down season offensively and his age profile. It’s tough to imagine him once again earning nearly $6 million annually on his next deal, but his player profile is one of the most sought-after in NHL circles.
If teams believe that Dumba is more than a product of his defensive partner and can rebound from a dip in form, they could secure the services of a tough, puck-moving blueliner at a discount. If not, they could be stuck paying dearly for an already discounted asset with a pessimistic outlook for the future.
J.T. Compher, Colorado Avalanche
2022-23 Statistics: 82 GP – 17 G – 35 A – 52 PTS – 20:32 ATOI
Like his former teammate Nazem Kadri – who inked a hefty contract with the Calgary Flames in free agency last season – Colorado Avalanche utility-forward J.T. Compher is set to cash in following a career year on the offensive end. With the Avalanche trading for center Ryan Johansen, his home in 2023-24 is likely to not be in Colorado.
Due to the resulting opening in the top-six and injuries to the Avalanche’s top forwards, Compher averaged over 20 minutes per night in the regular season, and topped 50 points in a season for the first time in his career. He also suppressed scoring chances at one of the best rates in the league and looked the part of a legitimate top-six center.
Unfortunately, Compher’s struggles in the postseason spoiled an otherwise solid regular season and may have cost him in terms of salary. In the Avalanche’s seven-game loss to the Seattle Kraken in the first round, he only managed to tally two points while going scoreless during 5-on-5 play. His possession metrics cratered at even strength and solidified that he’s likely miscast as a top-six center, and that he’s better suited to anchor a contending team’s bottom-six group.
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Working in Compher’s favour is the scarcity of centers in this year’s free-agent class and his versatility, as he’s capable of playing all three forward positions and is comfortable being used in all situations. Those factors could see him earn upwards of $5 million annually, which is a bit rich for a player who may not be a true top-six calibre forward, but really only has to compete with Ryan O’Reilly for the title of the best center available in free agency.
A comparable from last summer’s free-agent crop is Andrew Copp, who signed a five-year contract worth $5.625 million per year with the Detroit Red Wings after scoring 53 points in 72 regular-season games, and 14 in 20 playoff games. Both he and Compher are close in age, scored at similar rates prior to hitting free agency, and offer versatility in their deployment.
Copp struggled to start 2022-23 and finished with nine goals and 42 points in 82 games to start his Red Wings tenure, which may cause some buyer’s remorse in the Steve Yzerman camp. A similar fate could await the team which captures Compher’s services, so executives must be sure of the player they are recruiting before offering significant salary and term.
Ryan Graves, New Jersey Devils
2022-23 Statistics: 78 GP – 8 G – 18 A – 26 PTS – 19:57 ATOI
For better or worse, NHL executives love to follow trends when it comes to roster building or pursuing certain player archetypes which is often based on the roster profile employed by the most recent Stanley Cup champions.
En route to the 2023 title, the Golden Knights trotted out a lineup with heavy, physical players at every position, but particularly on the blue line. Alex Pietrangelo (6-foot-3, 215 pounds), Nic Hague (6-foot-6, 230 pounds), and Brayden McNabb (6-foot-4, 215 pounds) all stand at 6-foot-3 or taller, and all three are no lighter than 215 pounds. The rest of their main defensive core stood at no shorter than 6-foot-1 and no lighter than 207 pounds, rounding out a formidable group on the back end.
At a towering 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds, 28-year-old defenseman Ryan Graves looks to be one of the greatest benefactors of the Golden Knights’ playoff success in free agency. Primarily owing to his massive frame and long reach, Graves saw extensive usage on the penalty kill and ranked 44th among all defenders in total shorthanded ice time. He also compiled 151 blocks in all situations (20th) while only being the New Jersey Devils’ fifth-most utilized blueliner per game.
Surprisingly, Graves is infrequently penalized given his size and aggressiveness, and was only whistled for 14 minor penalties in all situations last season. However, he only drew five which brought his penalty differential to minus-9 on the year and sat just outside the bottom 50 of all defensemen despite not playing against top competition at even strength.
It’s difficult to discern how much of his strong 5-on-5 possession numbers were the byproduct of playing most frequently alongside the Devils’ defensive stalwarts in defensive partner John Marino and Selke Trophy nominee Nico Hischier. Both posted better results away from Graves, while the hulking rearguard saw his share of shots and scoring chances dip in response. Players fitting Graves’ profile have often been the leading candidates to receive wildly overvalued contracts on the open market, and don’t expect that to change this season.
Max Domi, Dallas Stars
2022-23 Statistics: 80 GP – 20 G – 36 A – 56 PTS – 17:46 ATOI
There may not be a more boom-or-bust candidate in this year’s free-agent class than forward Max Domi. After potting 56 points during the regular season, the 28-year-old added 13 points in 19 playoff games as the Dallas Stars advanced to the Western Conference Final. When he’s rolling, Domi functions as an energetic playmaker with a nasty streak, traits which could entice several NHL general managers to offer him a hefty deal this summer.
Unfortunately, Domi’s season splits make the most compelling argument against awarding him a sizable contract. Although his average ice time only dropped slightly from 18 minutes per game with the Blackhawks to 16 with the Stars, his scoring rate dropped significantly as he only scored seven of his 56 points in the 20 games coming after the trade deadline.
Notably, Domi’s shooting percentage (SH%) fell from over 12 percent with the Blackhawks, to under six percent with the Stars. Teams will have to decide which version of Domi is closest to the real thing, which makes for a risky gamble when it comes to committing significant portions of the cap to players with inconsistent track records.
Executives could be tempted by Domi’s name value and inflated box score stats as a result of very favourable deployment, especially in the postseason. Yet, they are likely to be greatly disappointed if they expect him to score upwards of 50 points again in a different offensive environment while providing anywhere near positive value on the defensive end.
2023 NHL Free Agency: Dishonourable Mentions
Other than the five aforementioned players, here are five additional names who could find themselves owning the worst contract from this summer’s free-agent period:
- John Klingberg, Anaheim Ducks (67 GP – 10 G – 23 A – 33 PTS – 19:56 ATOI)
- Frederik Andersen, Carolina Hurricanes (34 GP – .903 Save Percentage/SV% – Plus-2.34 Goals Saved Above Expected/GSAx)
- Vladimir Tarasenko, New York Rangers (69 GP – 18 G – 32 A – 50 PTS – 16:48 ATOI)
- Radko Gudas, Florida Panthers (72 GP – 2 G – 15 A – 17 PTS – 17:22 ATOI)
- Adin Hill, Vegas Golden Knights (27 GP – .915 SV% – Plus-7.02 GSAx)
2023 NHL Free Agent Period Promises Drama
Even though the 2023 free-agent class lacks the big names of years past, the diminished supply of top-tier talent suggests that management groups will battle to claim a scarce resource. This could spark aggressive bidding wars and result in some head-scratching contracts being handed out, which only serves to add to the entertainment value provided by the busiest day on the NHL calendar. Buckle up folks, the NHL’s silly season creeps ever closer.
Data courtesy of All Three Zones, Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and the NHL.
