Any speculation of soured relations between the Toronto Maple Leafs and John Tavares in the aftermath of the club’s captaincy transition to Auston Matthews can be put to bed, just as any wild theories on the Maple Leafs’ intentions to push away their hometown star should probably be walked back. Recent reports suggest the organization has begun contract talks to extend the 34-year-old pending free agent.
Even as Tavares ages out of his prime, he brings value as an on-ice leader, solid centre and potent point producer, so it stands to reason that both sides are hopeful their relationship will extend beyond 2024-25. The question comes down to money and term, as it always does in these cases. While Tavares deserves to be recognized for his NHL pedigree (more than 1,000 points in over 1,100 career games), the Maple Leafs must be prudent in evaluating what his next few years will look like. In other words, don’t expect another $11 million per year cap hit.
What is fair value for Tavares, who will be 35 once his new contract kicks in next season? A few comparisons around the league offer a clearer picture.
Steven Stamkos – Four Years, $32 Million
There is no shortage of parallels between Tavares and Steven Stamkos. They are two Greater Toronto Area natives who were selected first overall in back-to-back drafts (Stamkos in 2008 and Tavares in 2009). They have both enjoyed highly decorated careers and are among the 10 active players with over 1,000 career points. They are separated in age by a mere seven months (Stamkos is older).
It's Stammertime. pic.twitter.com/a1r50m0LHP
— Nashville Predators (@PredsNHL) September 22, 2024
Stamkos has had a more productive career (nearly 100 more points in 27 fewer games) and boasts two Stanley Cup rings. He has also aged a little more gracefully, maintaining a higher level of production (40 goals and 81 points last season, compared to 29 goals and 65 points for Tavares) into his mid-thirties.
Yet, the biggest reason that Stamkos’ contract is on the high end of what to expect for Tavares is the context of the deal. Rather than remain with the Tampa Bay Lightning on a presumably more team-friendly deal, Stamkos accepted a lofty offer from the Nashville Predators and now represents a different NHL team for the first time in his 17-year career. If Tavares opts to enter the open market in free agency, he may find better money and term than Toronto is willing to offer.
Matt Duchene – One Year, $3 Million
At the other end of the spectrum is Matt Duchene, who was drafted two spots after the 15-year veteran in 2009. On July 1, he signed a one-year deal to remain with the Dallas Stars.
While Duchene has experienced more ups and downs than Tavares, they are very similar players at this stage. Duchene recorded 25 goals and 65 points in Dallas last season and, like Tavares (for now, anyway), has settled into a No. 2 centre role on a team with ambitious postseason goals. Perhaps because of those expectations, the 33-year-old took a bargain deal, the type of contract agreement that the Maple Leafs surely hope they can convince Tavares to take to remain in Toronto (as they did with Mark Giordano).
At this point, the Duchene deal is the ideal scenario for the Maple Leafs. This way, they keep Tavares in the fold at significant savings, thus freeing up cap space to spend on players like Mitch Marner, Matthew Knies, Jake McCabe and Joseph Woll. However, they would need to offer more long-term job security to convince him to sign for a low cap figure.
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Ryan O’Reilly – Four Years, $18 Million
While Maple Leafs fans might not want to be reminded of the contract that sealed Ryan O’Reilly’s departure from Toronto, the deal he signed with the Predators in the summer of 2023 is the best comparable for Tavares. This contract also paid off handsomely for Nashville through year one.
O’Reilly was coming off of a massive eight-year, $60 million contract when he signed with the Predators. In exchange for accepting a $3 million annual reduction in pay (his current cap hit is $4.5 million), he was given a four-year deal that will expire when he’s 36. While O’Reilly was just 32 when he signed his new contract, Tavares will be approaching 35, so perhaps a two- or three-year term will be more feasible.
O’Reilly’s 2023-24 campaign is likely disheartening for anyone who had hoped he’d still be in blue and white but also encouraging for those seeking bang for the buck on Tavares’ next deal. In his debut in Nashville, O’Reilly recorded 26 goals and 69 points while playing a full 82 games in what was his best season since 2018-19. By the playoffs, he had turned back the clock to the point that he was averaging 22:32 of ice time per game.
Somewhere in between Stamkos’ $8 million per year and Duchene’s $3 million lies a bevy of aging stars who are playing out their twilight years. Along with Stamkos, Duchene and O’Reilly, there are players like Anze Kopitar, Evgeni Malkin, Jonathan Marchessault, Claude Giroux and Mats Zuccarello. Like them, Tavares is poised to bring value on his next contract, but at what price and at what term? The Maple Leafs may be about to find out.
