With the end of the 2022-23 regular season in sight and the playoffs quickly approaching, the matchup is finally set. The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to get their revenge against the Tampa Bay Lightning after losing to them in seven games in 2022.
Unofficially, this matchup was decided in the third or fourth month of the season as it was only a matter of time before both teams clinched and the series was set in stone. Now that both teams have locked their spot, it’s time to break down the matchup.
Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas has been tinkering with his lineup since the team’s defeat. They’re a completely different team this time around as they made plenty of changes to their roster– both in the offseason and at the trade deadline– in order to be ready for another tough and physical affair. The main focus is definitely going to be on the main core of this group as they’ll carry the load offensively, but other players are going to be relied on as well in order to push this team past the first round. Here are three players that’ll be a key for their success in their opening series.
Ilya Samsonov
As of late, head coach Sheldon Keefe was trying to balance out the workload of Ilya Samsonov and try to give Matt Murray more starts as well. There was the possibility of even splitting the starts in the playoffs.
Based on the numbers this season, it was starting to become clear that Samsonov was going to be the starter, though it was one final chance for Murray. Just when Murray was starting to come around, he suffers a head injury against the Detroit Red Wings. It’s all but certain that Samsonov is going to be the one to back stop the team in net.
Much like last season, the Maple Leafs starter is going to be the underdog going up against the Lightning’s Andrei Vasilevskiy. Despite him having his own struggles in the first-round last season, he shined when it mattered the most when facing elimination. Samsonov is definitely in tough as he doesn’t have the playoff resume as Vasilevskiy, but can definitely give him a run to try and outplay him. He did look to provide great goaltending for the Washington Capitals in the post season with a .912 save percentage.
While the Lightning has the advantage in net, Samsonov has kept up with one of the top goaltenders in the league at five-on-five.
| Category | Samsonov | Vasilevskiy |
| SV% | .924 | .926 |
| Goals against Average | 2.11 | 2.26 |
| GSAA | 8.30 | 16.03 |
| HDSV% | .898 | .870 |
| HDGAA | 0.81 | 1.11 |
Both have been strong this season, with Samsonov having better high danger results than Vasilevskiy. That could be the deciding factor with Samonov being better when dealing with those chances in front of the net and home plate area. If the Maple Leafs are going to come out on top, he has to be dialled in every time. So far this season, he has. Especially on home ice.
Samsonov has been extremely dominant with an 18-3-3 record and a .926 SV% compared to his 7-7-1 record and .900 SV% on the road. Though he has had some better outings as of late when the team is away. If he can continue this trend of home ice dominance and provide average results on the road between a .900- .910 SV% on the road, then he can be a major factor in stealing a win on the road for the Maple Leafs when it matters.
They’ve been looking for quality goaltending to push them over the top and Samsonov is going to be relied on to do so.
Michael Bunting
Michael Bunting has seen his production dip from 63 points last season to 47 this season. While he can still be a fixture in the top-six, he has been demoted as a result of his play and lack of self-control.
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Postgame when the Maple Leafs played the Red Wings, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman said that it’s “obivous” that Bunting is a targeted player by officials and that they’re tired of his actions on the ice. Bunting is effective at being in your face, agitating and getting under the opponents’ skin. But he has voiced his displeasure on the ice with officials for missed calls in the past and now, the officials are finding anything to punish him. While he has drawn 40 penalties, there are plenty of times this season where he draws a call, but it’s negated and results in a four-on-four because of his reputation.
If he retaliates and is being watched closely by the officials, rest assured they’ll call him for something. Teams now know that Bunting can be set off easily and any sort of push back from him, even when defending himself, the referees are going to make a call on him. While he has got better at knowing when to walk away, there’s the odd time where he starts to cross the line.
Bunting is going to be a vital factor for this team in the playoffs. This is a player that can provide a physical, agitating presence on the forecheck and be a factor offensively. He can score and has the play style needed for the playoffs, as he also has the edge and intensity. Since he has that target on his back, he needs to have a level head and know when to walk away and just not say anything. Otherwise, he will find himself in the box. He can’t be crossing that line and being an easy target for the officials. He needs to keep the complaining in check, but still play to his strengths.
He had three points in six games in the 2022 playoffs. He’s going to need to replicate that and provide even more of an impact this time.
Luke Schenn
I probably could’ve picked any other forward or defenseman, but why not pick the one player that is very familiar with the opponent and has won two Stanley Cups with the Lightning. Luke Schenn won back-to-back Cups in 2019-20 and 2020-21 and he was a noticeable factor for them during those runs.
Schenn was a strong and dominant presence with the Lightning as his defensive play and punishing physicality stood out. That’s the reason why the Maple Leafs went out and acquired the “human eraser” to try and match their physicality and intensity. The Maple Leafs know how the intensity ramps up in the postseason as they know how the Lightning play. Schenn is the leader in the league in hits with 296. The Lightning have that edge and he makes the Maple Leafs tougher to go up against.
While that’s a big factor to Schenn’s game, he also provides a steady presence within his own end. Especially in front of the net. The Maple Leafs have struggled at times to be tough battling in front of their own net. He has been extremely effective at boxing players out and making life difficult for the opponents’ star players. By him clearing the traffic out in front of the net, it’ll make life easier on the goaltender to see the puck and make a save.
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Schenn was a fan favourite with the Maple Leafs when he started his career. In a short time, he is once again that kind of player with his style of play. He can be an underrated but effective reason why the Maple Leafs have success against the Lightning.
Even though you can have a longer list here, the Maple Leafs are going to need Samsonov, Bunting and Schenn to play pivotal roles when their series starts up. The goaltending needs to be on point, one of their top-six forwards needs to find a balance to his game and a key deadline acquisition can prove to be effective with his shut down style. If all three succeed, then it’ll be a big reason why they could move onto the next round.
Statistics from Natural Stat Trick and NHL.
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