Matvei Michkov had a fantastic rookie season for the Philadelphia Flyers. Registering 63 points in 80 games as a 20-year-old learning the English language, it went about as well as anyone could have hoped. But his upside is even greater than it appears. Below are three reasons why he will be the league’s top breakout star in 2025–26.
Reason 1: Michkov’s Mid-Season Drought Was a Fluke
Between Dec. 11 and Feb. 5 of last season, Michkov had quite the scoring drought: just seven points in 26 games. But there’s reason to believe that this was only a fluke. If he can eliminate such a stretch in 2025–26, unthinkable scoring feats will be within his grasp.
Michkov’s scoring drought was a case of severely bad luck—snake bitten to some extent, but mostly riding unsustainable outcomes. During that 26-game span, he had a 5.08% on-ice shooting percentage and a .897 PDO (sum of on-ice save and shooting percentage; both considered luck-based metrics). Among the 320 forwards who logged at least 250 minutes of ice time, those marks ranked 312th and 320th, respectively. For the most part, only fourth-liners accompanied him, not high-skill scorers.
Encouragingly, the numbers suggest Michkov should have had an incredible stretch, not one that prevented him from winning the Calder Trophy. Among forwards with the same 250-minute ice-time requirement, except at 5-on-5 play, he ranked 15th in expected goals scored per 60 minutes and 26th in expected goal share. In essence, the only difference between Michkov during this run and his body of work outside it was that pucks weren’t going his way.
There’s probably truth to the idea that Michkov was in his own head a bit. However, that doesn’t mean he wasn’t creating scoring chances. This feels like a rookie-season hiccup, not something to expect long-term. So, what if we erased it?
To preface this, Michkov had an on-ice shooting percentage of 13.48% and a .999 PDO last season without those 26 games. When performing this type of experiment, it’s quite common to create unsustainably favorable luck. But that’s not the case here.
Michkov’s PDO is perfectly normal, so that box can be checked off. His on-ice shooting percentage is indeed high, but he would’ve ranked 38th out of 388 forwards with at least 500 minutes of ice time over the entire season. While I’ve established that on-ice shooting percentage is luck-based, star players still excel in the metric due to the quality of chances they generate. Thus, Michkov’s really not out of place at all. Perhaps it’s optimistic, but 13.48% is probably around where he belongs.
Under the assumption that Michkov’s 54-game span outside the drought was sustainable, he would have had 85 points in a full 82-game slate. That’s exceptional for a 20-year-old rookie, but even more so considering he was getting second-line usage. Accounting for that, his 3.54 points per 60 minutes would’ve ranked 11th among forwards with 500 minutes of ice time—narrowly behind now-teammates Jack Eichel and Mitch Marner.
Of course, Michkov will have to actually prove he can put up these numbers over a full season. Even if the logic is sound, the stats are a bit cherry-picky. Still, his odds of reaching these heights are more promising than they appear. With his rookie jitters out of the way, superstardom is reasonably on the horizon.
Reason 2: Flyers’ Power Play Should Finally Improve
I’ve made this claim three offseasons in a row now, but with significant change occurring behind the bench, it’s more justified this time. The Flyers’ power play converted at 15.02% efficiency last season, ranking 30th in the NHL. This cost Michkov a lot of points—he had only 17 on the man advantage. To put that in perspective, on a team with objectively less talent, fellow 2023 draftee Connor Bedard had 29.
Related: First Connor Bedard vs. Matvei Michkov NHL Matchup Is a Long Time Coming
If Bedard’s Chicago Blackhawks can finish seventh league-wide in power-play efficiency (24.87%), so can the Flyers. They added Trevor Zegras to help with that, as well. Reason 2 is more speculative than the last, so I won’t dive too deep here, but there should be some expectations on this front. The staff was overhauled, and the team is skilled enough to bring strong results.
Reason 3: Tocchet’s Mission Is to Maximize Michkov’s Potential
Maybe most importantly, the Flyers’ head coach now recognizes who the face of the franchise is. On 97.5 The Fanatic, Rick Tocchet expressed a desire to get Michkov the puck. While this may sound obvious, it wasn’t to John Tortorella. In 2024–25, the 20-year-old had questionable linemates and disrespectful ice time—this limited his puck touches, by my eye test, during the early and mid-stages of the season.
There are plenty of examples for the “questionable linemates” part of that claim. Through the Flyers’ first 70 games, Michkov played just 15.05% of his 5-on-5 ice time next to Travis Konecny—a duo that torched opponents when united (3.58 goals scored per 60 minutes). Tortorella had no problem, however, playing Michkov with American Hockey League (AHL) call-ups. Anthony Richard, Olle Lycksell, and Rodrigo Ābols cumulatively spent 26.21% of their 5-on-5 ice time with the rookie.
In addition, Tortorella failed to recognize which center the young star had the most chemistry with. It’s not a coincidence that almost immediately after Morgan Frost was traded and Sean Couturier became Michkov’s full-time center out of necessity, the 20-year-old was unstoppable at 5-on-5—only David Pastrňák had more points from Feb. 6 onward.
Finally, Michkov only averaged 16:18 of ice time under Tortorella. There’s a case to be made that a rookie with a language barrier should be restricted slightly, but he flourished in an expanded role once Brad Shaw became the interim. In those nine games, Michkov received first-line usage (19:36 per game) and recorded 12 points as a result. Mind you, his on-ice shooting percentage was 13.46%—in the sustainable-for-a-star range I mentioned earlier.
Tocchet offers a brand-new perspective. From the sound of it, he will play Michkov with proper linemates, and the youngster will get the ice time he deserves. I’m sure their relationship won’t be sunshine and rainbows, but it’s an exciting change. If he’s not held back again, Michkov will go nuclear.
Across the entire NHL, there isn’t a player with more breakout upside than Michkov. If the three things I highlighted work in his favor, and he stays healthy along the way, be prepared for a superstar sophomore campaign.
Stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick
