It’s not clear yet what’s going to happen in the Mitch Marner and Toronto Maple Leafs saga, but one thing does seem inevitable — that Marner is going to enter the 2024-25 season in the final year of his deal and without an extension.
Recently, on an episode of the Sticks in the 6ix podcast, beat writer David Alter joined the team to discuss the repercussions of Marner’s lack of extension with the team heading into the year. During the conversation, Alter suggested that if the Maple Leafs can’t get him signed to an extension prior to the season, their best route might be to wait until the 2024-25 season is over as a mid-season extension could end up coming as an overpayment.
This idea also stems from the notion that Marner — historically — has performed in the regular season while his production has taken a step back come playoff time.
With all that considered, and with some hesitation, here’s a look at four cities that Marner could land if he does reach unrestricted free agency following this season.
Marner Remains With Maple Leafs
I think that most people — at least around Toronto — are hoping that the Maple Leafs can find a way to get Marner signed to a long-term deal and that he can find his production come playoff time. At least that would be the result in a utopian world.
However, there is conversation that has overshadowed what his worth is to the team — a team that needs players to start taking team-friendly deals if they want to build a perennial contender.
William Nylander is signed to a long-term deal that carries an annual average value of $11.5 million until 2032. With the cap increase that will likely look like a steal down the road. But, Nylander’s production has topped Marner’s in recent years — including 40-goal seasons the past two years and coming just shy of 100 points in 2023-24. Marner’s playoff production is minimally better than that of Nylander, but where does that cap him when it comes to his overall salary?
If I’m Brad Treliving and the Maple Leafs, Marner comes in somewhere in the $10-million to $11-million range over a five to six-year term. That’s if he wants to stay in Toronto with this nucleus.
Marner, Utah HC Seem Like Realistic Partners
Going into the season, Utah Hockey Club has just over $8 million in cap space. After this season, Alex Kerfoot, Nick Bjugstad, Michael Carcone, Ian Cole, Robert Bortuzzo and Karel Vejmelka all become UFAs which would open up some space on the roster to bring in a player of Marner’s calibre.
Adding a flashy talent like Marner would increase a talent pool that already has players like Clayton Keller, Logan Cooley and Josh Doan as their young core. While playing in Utah wouldn’t bring the same media attention that his hometown Maple Leafs has, the hype around a new NHL team could be a good move for Marner if he were to move on from Toronto.
There was some playoff hope around this team in their final year in the desert and while it didn’t happen, the move to Utah plus the addition of a player like Marner one year later could push this team back into spring hockey.
Marner Could Land Ashore With Sharks
You’d have to imagine that Joe Thornton would have some positive things to say about his former club and city if Marner were to inquire about playing with the San Jose Sharks. The Sharks are in the midst of a rebuild and adding a year to that would have them poised to make a push with players like Will Smith, William Eklund and, of course, Macklin Celebrini.
Entering the 2024-25 season, the Sharks have just over $10 million in cap space and aside from starter-calibre goaltending, they’ve put together an interesting roster that will surely become an exciting bubble team in another year or two.
Related: Maple Leafs’ Mitch Marner Has Strong Message for Leafs Nation
The biggest question around the Sharks and Marner would be whether or not he’s interested in becoming the veteran player in a rebuild. The Sharks will be able to pay him with a big extension, but would it be the best move for their rebuild?
The sun and hot weather year round would be an enticing piece to this possible destination, but considering Marner is in his late-20s and right in the heart of his prime offensive years, a move like this might not be appetizing for the talented forward.
Marner, Dubas Reuniting Isn’t Out of the Question
The last place that might be the least realistic of the four, but a top-five option come free agency is a reuniting of Marner and former Maple Leafs’ general manager Kyle Dubas in Pittsburgh.
Heading into the 2024-25 season, the Penguins are just over the cap before any long-term injury reserve moves, which makes a Marner-Dubas reunion even more questionable. That said, Lars Eller, Anthony Beauvillier, Drew O’Connor, Matt Nieto, Jesse Puljujarvi and Matt Grzelcyk come off the books after this season — among others. It will require some major moves, but we’ve seen Dubas’ loyalty in the past.
If Marner’s previous contract wasn’t an indication of the faith Dubas puts in his core players than it should be. In moving to the Penguins, Dubas brought over Jason Spezza who is now in a general manager role with the team’s AHL affiliate, the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins.
The two of them were then joined by Wes Clark after the 2024 NHL Draft and if that still isn’t enough to convince you he might be interested in bringing Marner to the Penguins, don’t forget about his signing of Andreas Johnsson last season to give the forward a chance to resurrect his NHL career.
In this business, loyalty can be hard to come by and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Dubas maintain some of that in give the Penguins and Sidney Crosby one more kick at the can by bringing in Marner if he makes it to free agency.
All of this is contingent on Marner not signing a new deal with the Maple Leafs. An in-season extension might not be doable for either side with too much at play, but that shouldn’t negate the possibility of Marner sticking with the Maple Leafs. If not, consider these the top-three options for the star forward.