Now that the 2023 NHL Draft is in the books and free agency is in full swing, it’s time to sit down and look back on how our rankers did in predicting a somewhat unpredictable first round. We did this experiment back in 2020 following that year’s draft and it gave us a good idea of where teams went astray, where our rankers might’ve reached and how spot on some of their picks may have been.
We’ll take a closer look at the first 32 picks of the draft, where they went and how it lined up with my final rankings, as well as those from Logan Horn and Peter Baracchini. With that in mind, here’s how we matched up at the 2023 NHL Draft.
1. Connor Bedard, Chicago Blackhawks
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 1st
- Peter Baracchini: 1st
- Andrew Forbes: 1st
- Final Rank: 1st
Was there really any surprise here? Let’s face it, this was the Bedard show from the beginning and there was no question that the Blackhawks were going to take him first overall. It’s a new beginning in Chicago — and the fans have a lot to look forward to in the coming years.
2. Leo Carlsson, Anaheim Ducks
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 4th
- Peter Baracchini: 3rd
- Andrew Forbes: 4th
- Final Rank: 2nd
This pick was a little more surprising to most. There was some speculation that it could still be Matvei Michkov or, the likely pick, Adam Fantilli, but the Ducks went off the board by taking Carlsson. While Logan and I had him dropping to fourth, Peter left Carlsson in the three spot and comes out closer on this one than us. But very few had him going number two to the Ducks when this all started.
3. Adam Fantilli, Columbus Blue Jackets
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 2nd
- Peter Baracchini: 2nd
- Andrew Forbes: 2nd
- Final Rank: 3rd
With Carlsson going second, it was only natural that the Blue Jackets took Fantilli with the third overall pick. As most had him second overall — including our entire staff rankers — for Fantilli to fall into their laps at the three spot was a no-brainer for the organization. Still a surprise, but one that Blue Jackets’ fans will enjoy in the next couple of seasons.
4. Will Smith, San Jose Sharks
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 5th
- Peter Baracchini: 4th
- Andrew Forbes: 3rd
- Final Rank: 4th
Well, Peter was spot on once again. While we were all within range, the Carlsson pick really threw off the following selections. There was some chatter at the NHL Combine that Smith could be a potential pick for the Blue Jackets at number three, but with Fantilli still on the board it’s no surprise that Smith fell to the Sharks. Look out San Jose, one of the more purely skilled players in this draft is on his way to you.
5. David Reinbacher, Montreal Canadiens
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 9th
- Peter Baracchini: 11th
- Andrew Forbes: 12th
- Final Rank: 5th
Once again, this one threw a number of people for a whirl. As they did with Jesperi Kotkaniemi a few years back, the Canadiens jumped off the board and took Reinbacher — a right-handed defenceman — fifth overall. While he will be a solid pick up in a few years, it still comes as a bit of a surprise this high in the draft.
6. Dmitriy Simashev, Arizona Coyotes
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 16th
- Peter Baracchini: 40th
- Andrew Forbes: 21st
- Final Rank: 6th
Well, safe to say we missed on this one as well. The closest one was Logan who had him in the mid-teens of the first round. While I still had him as a first-round pick, Peter had him as a mid second-round pick. Either the Coyotes saw something the rest of us didn’t or Simashev could prove to have gone too high in this year’s draft.
7. Matvei Michkov, Philadelphia Flyers
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 3rd
- Peter Baracchini: 5th
- Andrew Forbes: 5th
- Final Rank: 7th
Based on his contract situation and the geopolitical situation, many did have Michkov dropping a little in the first round, just outside the top three. But to see him go seventh is a bit of a shocker. Still, with Reinbacher and Simashev moving up, someone had to drop and it turns out it was Michkov. The Flyers will have a talented player when he does come over and it’s only a matter of time.
8. Ryan Leonard, Washington Capitals
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 7th
- Peter Baracchini: 7th
- Andrew Forbes: 7th
- Final Rank: 8th
Once again, Leonard dropping to eight is a byproduct of others moving up at the draft. Still, we all had him right in the range of that eight spot and the Capitals should consider themselves lucky seeing Leonard drop to them.
9. Nate Danielson, Detroit Red Wings
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 8th
- Peter Baracchini: 13th
- Andrew Forbes: 17th
- Final Rank: 9th
Trust in Steve Yzerman. He might not always make the obvious picks, but so far he’s made some key selections as a GM in this league. Danielson will be an interesting selection and while Logan had him at eight, Peter and I had him dropping into the mid to late-teens of the first round.
10. Dalibor Dvorsky, St. Louis Blues
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 10th
- Peter Baracchini: 8th
- Andrew Forbes: 10th
- Final Rank: 10th
All three of us honed in on this pick. Logan and I hit it spot on, while Peter was just two picks off. The Blues will be retooling their lineup over the next year or two with guys like Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko having left and Dvorsky should be a key piece to that revamping.
11. Tom Willander, Vancouver Canucks
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 17th
- Peter Baracchini: 23rd
- Andrew Forbes: 25th
- Final Rank: 11th
At one point, Willander wasn’t even considered a first-round pick. But as the year went on he found his way into that top-32. Still, none of us ranked him nearly high enough as the Canucks took him just outside the top-10, while we had him ranked as high as 17th and as low as 25th. That’s a miss.
12. Daniil But, Arizona Coyotes
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 14th
- Peter Baracchini: 38th
- Andrew Forbes: 29th
- Final Rank: 12th
Another first-round pick and another miss. Logan wasn’t too far off with him sitting at 14 in his final rankings, while both Peter and I missed by well over 10 spots when it comes to But. Once again, the Coyotes must see something we don’t as they go slightly off the board with this pick. But it could all work out for a franchise that needs anything to work in their favour.
13. Zach Benson, Buffalo Sabres
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 6th
- Peter Baracchini: 6th
- Andrew Forbes: 6th
- Final Rank: 13th
The fact that he dropped this far is unbelievable. The Sabres are extremely beneficial of other teams missing on Zach Benson and it’ll show. We all had him inside the top-10, but with the off-board picks he dropped to the Sabres at 13th overall. This prospect just adds to an already upwards movement in Buffalo — time to get excited again.
14. Brayden Yager, Pittsburgh Penguins
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 20th
- Peter Baracchini: 15th
- Andrew Forbes: 24th
- Final Rank: 14th
Not horrible, but not great either. Peter was close, while Logan and I missed on this one once again. Yager has all the tools and it’ll come down to consistency, but what better place to learn it than an organization that consists of Sidney Crosby?
15. Matthew Wood, Nashville Predators
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 12th
- Peter Baracchini: 12th
- Andrew Forbes: 22nd
- Final Rank: 15th
Wood was an NCAA product that had mixed reviews. Regardless, most had him in the first-round and he is a first-round talent. Still, Logan and Peter were on the closer end of the spectrum when ranking Wood, while I had him going deeper into the first round.
16. Samuel Honzek, Calgary Flames
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 18th
- Peter Baracchini: 21st
- Andrew Forbes: 27th
- Final Rank: 16th
His hockey IQ is what makes him a first-round selection and two of our rankers were relatively in range for him going in the mid-teens. Clearly, I undervalued the talent of some of these first-round players, but Honzek projected more around the 20 to 22 mark. The Flames see him as a better option.
17. Axel Sandin Pellikka, Detroit Red Wings
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 15th
- Peter Baracchini: 14th
- Andrew Forbes: 11th
- Final Rank: 17th
Another solid pick for Yzerman at 17th overall as Sandin Pellikka has speed and offensive skill. He’s going to fit in nicely on that defence in Detroit, which is why most of us had him ranked higher in the draft than 17th. Oh well, him falling to the Red Wings is fortunate for them.
18. Colby Barlow, Winnipeg Jets
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 19th
- Peter Baracchini: 9th
- Andrew Forbes: 9th
- Final Rank: 18th
I was high on Barlow and so was Peter. Logan was almost spot on with him going in the back half of the first round. While I’m not sold on calling him the steal of the first round just yet, he could be the steal of the first round in 2023.
19. Oliver Moore, Chicago Blackhawks
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 11th
- Peter Baracchini: 10th
- Andrew Forbes: 8th
- Final Rank: 19th
Another case of us not knowing the player or the player falling far past where they should’ve gone? Either way, I think Moore at 19th overall is a great pick for the Blackhawks and another solid addition alongside Bedard. It’s safe to say we all thought he should go higher, but team after team passed on the product of the U.S. Development Program.
20. Eduard Šalé, Seattle Kraken
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 25th
- Peter Baracchini: 17th
- Andrew Forbes: 18th
- Final Rank: 20th
Related: Eduard Šalé – 2023 NHL Draft Prospect Profile
At one point, he was seen as a potential top-10 pick. That changed and as such we all saw him drop in our rankings. While none of us were exactly right, we all had him within five picks of the 20th overall selection by the Kraken.
21. Charlie Stramel, Minnesota Wild
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 38th
- Peter Baracchini: 48th
- Andrew Forbes: 39th
- Final Rank: 21st
Based on our rankings, I’m going to chalk this one up to a reach by the Wild. Regardless, we were all off base when it came to Stramel, all having him as a second-round selection. It seems as though there are many of those this time around with the excess of talent in this year’s draft.
22. Oliver Bonk, Philadelphia Flyers
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 34th
- Peter Baracchini: 29th
- Andrew Forbes: 31st
- Final Rank: 22nd
A big, right-handed defenceman, Bonk is a great pick in the early 20s. Still, I’m not sure any of us were willing to admit there was a team out there willing to take a chance on him as he’s not really a master of any skill. Instead he’s an all-around asset and a first-round talent that we all missed on once again.
23. Gabriel Perreault, New York Rangers
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 13th
- Peter Baracchini: 22nd
- Andrew Forbes: 15th
- Final Rank: 23rd
Peter, once again, had a feeling and almost hit. As for Logan and I, we believed that Perreault’s lineage might’ve boosted his draft stock. Either way, we all had him as a first-round pick, and the Rangers should enjoy the addition within the next couple of seasons.
24. Tanner Molendyk, Nashville Predators
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 40th
- Peter Baracchini: 33rd
- Andrew Forbes: 34th
- Final Rank: 24th
None of us had him as a first-round pick, except for the Nashville Predators apparently. Albeit he dropped just outside on all of our rankings, call this another major miss for us three. The Predators are getting a solid pick in Molendyk and it should help them reshape their current roster in the coming seasons.
25. Otto Stenberg, St. Louis Blues
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 35th
- Peter Baracchini: 16th
- Andrew Forbes: 14th
- Final Rank: 25th
Another pick that had us confused, and the Blues took him 25th overall. Stenberg is just another example of how deep the talent is in this draft and how different rankers and scouts can see different things when watching these players. Some of us had Stenberg as a potential top-20 pick, while Logan had him outside of the first round.
26. Quentin Musty, San Jose Sharks
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 24th
- Peter Baracchini: 30th
- Andrew Forbes: 20th
- Final Rank: 26th
The Sharks got another great pick up in Musty and we got another pick that was ranked all over the map. We all had him in the first round, but the range was from 20th overall to 30th overall and the Sharks took him right smack dab in the middle.
27. Calum Ritchie, Colorado Avalanche
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 26th
- Peter Baracchini: 18th
- Andrew Forbes: 26th
- Final Rank: 27th
Now, this one was nice to see. Both Logan and I had Richie 26th overall, while Peter had him inside the top-20. There’s a lot of potential in Richie and it’s safe to say that any other year he could’ve been a top-20 talent. It’s also good to see us hitting on a few as the first round closes out.
28. Easton Cowan, Toronto Maple Leafs
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 91st
- Peter Baracchini: 72nd
- Andrew Forbes: 72nd
- Final Rank: 28th
Related: Maple Leafs’ Prospect Easton Cowan Brings More Than His Stature
Well, looking at our ranks of Cowan, it’s safe to say that this pick was the surprise of the draft’s first round. Not many — if anyone at all — had him as a first-round pick, while most of us had him somewhere in the third round. The first move as GM for Brad Treliving could be a make or break when Leafs Nation looks back on it.
29. Theo Lindstein, St. Louis Blues
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 44th
- Peter Baracchini: 39th
- Andrew Forbes: 56th
- Final Rank: 29th
Well, the Blues went off the map again with the fourth last pick of the first round. Lindstein projected by many to be a second or even third round pick, but not many had him inside the first round. That seems to be a common theme this year. Still, it was a miss by all three of us and not by a small margin either.
30. Bradly Nadeau, Carolina Hurricanes
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 30th
- Peter Baracchini: 41st
- Andrew Forbes: 38th
- Final Rank: 30th
Ding. Ding. Ding. Logan nailed the Nadeau pick for the Hurricanes, while Peter and I had him ranked in the second round. Still, we weren’t as far off as we’ve been with some other picks in this first round and the talent level started to mesh in the second half of this round.
31. Mikhail Gulyayev, Colorado Avalanche
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 28th
- Peter Baracchini: 27th
- Andrew Forbes: 19th
- Final Rank: 31st
Once again, two thirds of our rankers had the Gulyayev pick within range. Logan had him ranked 28th overall, while I had him going in the top-20 — a clear miss by me. We all had him ranked within the first-round, but ranged from 19th all the way down to 28th.
32. David Edstrom, Vegas Golden Knights
Rankings:
- Logan Horn: 33rd
- Peter Baracchini: 83rd
- Andrew Forbes: 50th
- Final Rank: 32nd
Well, Logan closed out the first round with some good selections. As for myself and Peter, we missed big again on the closing pick. That said, Edstrom wasn’t ranked by most as a first-round selection and it’s another case of Vegas looking deep for their pick.
In Closing…
It’s not an exact science, ranking prospects of any major sports league, which was quite evident by our selections. Still, throughout the year it gives other hockey fans a chance to get to know what we look for in potential prospects and get to know the prospects as well.
That said, it was a bit of a rough year ranking wise with the depth of talent in this year’s draft. Teams were going for needs rather than best available and that made it tough when it came to overall rankings.
As for the breakdown of our first-round rankings, Logan had three picks that hit, Peter had two correct and I finished with two as well.
When it comes to misses, which I consider a player missed when they are 10 spots from our final ranking, Logan finished with eight, Peter finished with eight and I had a whopping 13 misses this season. Our misses made up for 30.2 percent of our picks, while the remainder were within that 10-spot range.
As for our average difference per pick, Logan’s picks were off by an average of 6.75 positions. Peter’s were off by an average of 9.84 draft positions and I was off by an average of 9.5 spots.
It wasn’t the prettiest rankings this time around, but the beauty of ranking prospects is that we get another shot at it this season. Now, with the 2023 NHL Draft behind us, stay tuned all season long as we will rank prospects from start to finish for the upcoming 2024 NHL Draft.