The 2024 World Junior Championship ended with disappointment for Canada as they lost 3-2 to Czechia in the quarter-final. However, one bright spot throughout the tournament was Macklin Celebrini. The projected first-overall pick of the 2024 NHL Entry Draft was one of Canada’s top centres and led the team in scoring, drawing the inevitable comparisons to last year’s first-overall pick, Connor Bedard.
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Of course, Celebrini and Bedard are completely different players, with the former drawing stylistic comparisons to Jonathan Toews for his 200-foot game and lower offensive ceiling. He’s not going to be a 120-point scorer in the NHL, nor will he be expected to completely change a franchise. But, like his predecessor, one thing is for certain — there’s no way he’s relinquishing his hold on first overall following the World Juniors.
Although Celebrini seemed to have a pretty solid stake as 2024’s top draft choice, there were more than a few analysts who were willing to consider that maybe some of his competitors could steal it away from him at the last minute. But thanks to his World Juniors performance, those voices will be much quieter. That’s the power of this tournament, for better or worse: a player who rises to the occasion will almost certainly elevate themselves in the eyes of the NHL.
Celebrini Dominated Despite Canada’s Quarterfinal Exit
Coming into the tournament, Celebrini was one of Canada’s top players to watch. At just 17 years old, he was already one of the best players in the NCAA, scoring 10 goals and recording 25 points in just 15 games for the Boston University Terriers. Despite being the youngest player on the roster by a full year, he led the team in both goals and points, with second place sitting five points back. Clearly, he was going to be a special player and was an easy choice to make Team Canada’s U20 roster.
That was all but confirmed when he stepped on the ice in Gothenburg, Sweden. He scored in Canada’s first game against Finland while registering a team-high four shots on goal. Against the Norwegians, he led the Canadians with a five-point game, and against Germany, he notched two more goals on a whopping eight shots. Those goals came in clutch, too, as the first got the Canadians back into it after falling 1-0 early in the first period, and the next ensured Canada’s victory with an insurance goal to make it 5-3.
Even in the loss against Sweden, he looked solid, putting up two shots and playing the third-most minutes among forwards. At the end of the round robin, he had a team-leading eight points, doubling the second-place scorer, Carson Rehkopf, and sitting tied for second in tournament scoring with USA’s Cutter Gauthier, Frank Nazar, and Gavin Brindley. He was also held pointless in the quarterfinal game against Czechia, but he still finished with the second-highest ice time and had the most shots, tying Matthew Wood with four.
Related: 2024 Guide to the World Junior Championship
While several areas can be blamed for Canada’s collapse at the tournament — from coaching to the team’s inability to finish scoring chances — Celebrini is not one of them. He proved he was every bit as talented as scouts said he was, and when he was needed, he stepped up and performed. No other 17-year-old looked as good as he did at the World Juniors, all but guaranteeing he’ll be the unanimous choice for the first pick this year.
Celebrini’s Competitors
That wasn’t always the case, though. Heading into the 2023-24 season, the 2024 Draft race was seen as a toss-up between Celebrini and Cole Eiserman with Russian Ivan Demidov not that far behind. Eiserman was seen as a dynamic scorer in the same vein as Alex Ovechkin and a potential challenger for Cole Caufield’s United States National Development Program (USNDP) record of 72 goals in a single season, while Demidov looked more talented than Matvei Michkov, who was in consideration for first overall with Bedard before inconsistencies and a massive World Juniors performance separated the two.
Now, however, there’s little chance either catches Celebrini. Eiserman was surprisingly left off the American’s World Junior roster, which deprived fans and scouts of seeing the two best prospects go head to head. Since then, his goal pace has slipped and there’s now little chance he will set any USNDP records, although he could surpass R.J. Umberger for the most goals from a USNDP player in the United States Hockey League (USHL). However, beating his 33 goals in 57 games just doesn’t have the same ring to it.
Meanwhile, Demidov wasn’t able to compete at the World Juniors due to the International Ice Hockey Federation’s (IIHF) ban on Russia, so comparing him to his North American counterparts was always going to be tricky. Making it even more difficult is that he’s mostly played in the MHL, Russia’s junior league, which is harder to scout. So, even though he has 11 goals and 24 points in 16 games, he’s obscured from the general public. Celebrini, on the other hand, was one of the Word Junior’s best players, giving him much more exposure, and in the end, that’s one of the biggest factors in the draft.
The World Juniors Have a Big Impact on the Draft
Celebrini and Bedard are far from the first players to benefit from a strong World Juniors. In 2017, Nico Hischier and Nolan Patrick were considered to be the two best choices for first overall with analysts flip-flopping as to who they would rather have. However, the debate was all but quashed when Hischier broke out at the 2017 World Juniors for Switzerland, scoring seven points in five games and nearly upsetting the Americans in the quarterfinal with two goals. Patrick, on the other hand, never played a single game at the tournament due to a lingering injury. When the New Jersey Devils stepped up to the podium with the first pick, there was little surprise when they announced Hischier as their selection.
There was also Patrick Laine, Jesse Puljujarvi, and Olli Juolevi, the trio of Finns who dominated at the 2016 World Juniors, leading their nation to a gold medal for the second time in three years. Puljujarvi led the way with 17 points in just seven games with Laine not far behind with seven goals and 13 points. Juolevi was the team’s top defenceman who led all defenders at the tournament with nine assists. While Auston Matthews was still the clear choice for first overall, Laine ended up going second overall, Puljujarvi went fourth, and Juolevi went fifth, jumping over Matthew Tkachuk and Clayton Keller. Everyone was caught up in the World Juniors hype, but unfortunately for the Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks, their picks (Puljujarvi and Juolevi) haven’t worked out well, while the two that followed have done quite nicely in the NHL.
While the previous examples were directly connected to World Juniors performances, the tournament may have had more of an impact throughout history than expected. Taylor Hall’s 12-point effort may have given him the bump he needed to overtake Tyler Seguin in 2010, while Sam Bennett could have dropped to fourth overall after not qualifying for Canada’s roster in 2014 and allowed Sam Reinhart, who made the team, to jump to second. It also may have been the reason that Leo Carlsson, who finished his first World Juniors with three goals and six points, went second overall last year instead of Adam Fantilli, who had one fewer goal. Given that it’s one of the most-watched junior events of the year, it’s no wonder it has such a big impact.
World Juniors Success Does Not Equal NHL Success
There’s little doubt that Celebrini will go first overall unless another prospect can put together a massive second half of the season, but even then, they won’t have the same exposure. The only other player who could compete with him, who is also at the World Juniors, is Finland’s Konsta Helenius, who reached as high as third overall on pre-tournament rankings. But even though Finland is off to the semi-finals, the centre has just one assist in five games, which puts him significantly behind his Canadian counterpart.
However, that doesn’t mean Celebrini will automatically be the best NHLer just because he had the strongest 17-year-old World Juniors numbers. There’s still a chance Eiserman or Demidov become much better players; just basing it off their NHL comparisons, who would you rather have — Ovechkin, Nikita Kucherov, or Jonathan Toews? While I intend no slight against one of the best two-way players of the past two decades, chances are you’d pick Ovechkin or Kucherov first. But, right now, Celebrini has the upper hand thanks to his World Juniors performance and good for him — he rose to the occasion and now he’ll certainly be rewarded for it.