The preseason is behind the Montreal Canadiens. It’s all done with the line juggling, the dress rehearsals to rekindle the epochal rivalry with the Toronto Maple Leafs, and American Hockey Leaguers playing on the top lines. Oct. 9 awaits when the Maple Leafs and Canadiens do battle in the regular season opener at the Bell Centre. As puck drop looms, we make predictions of best and worst-case scenarios for Montreal in 2024-25.
Best-Case Scenario Arguments
Slavkofsky-Suzuki-Caufield Become a Legitimate Threat
It took a while to see what the Juraj Slafkovsky, Nick Suzuki, and Cole Caufield line could deliver. Two seasons ago, fans and pundits had much more criticisms than praise for then-rookie Slafkovsky, and Caufield’s season was cut short due to an injury.
Furthermore, for most of 2023-24, the Canadiens looked like what most predicted they would be: a mildly interesting club in rebuilding mode, showing flashes of what could be but not a serious threat. But the last few weeks of the regular season saw some genuinely interesting chemistry between the trio. They tore some defences up in late March and early April, like the 9-3 drubbing of the Philadelphia Flyers that saw Slafkovsky net his first NHL hat trick.
In 2024-25, this trio makes his presence known league-wide. They aren’t a Connor McDavid-led Edmonton Oilers or Nathan MacKinnon-led Colorado Avalanche top line, but they’re hungry and they make defences and goalies think twice. Suzuki has another point-per-game season, if not better, and both he and Caufield surpass 30 goals. Slafkovsky at least flirts with that number. Had there been an NHL All-Star Game this season, there is a case to be made that all three might have been selected.
Samuel Montembeault Proves He’s a Bargain
It’s tempting to argue that the awkward Carey Price contract kind of assisted general manager Kent Hughes and company when they offered Samuel Montembeault a three-year deal worth $3.15 million per season. Had Montembeault shown at the time that he deserved a lot more? Not necessarily. Had he displayed at the time that he was worth keeping around? Yes.
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He’s not even in the top 25 of the NHL’s best-paid netminders. His numbers also aren’t amazing (he’s never had a season with goals-against average under 3.00), but the defences in front of him have been average – on a good day. In 2024-25, he rewards Montreal by becoming the best, cheapest goalie in the league. Montembeault becomes the Habs’ Adin Hill. No one thought that much of him but it turns out he’s pretty solid. If the team in front plays well, so does he.
Newhook Is Healthy and Helpful
One of the under-the-radar signings of the 2023 offseason was Montreal grabbing former Avalanche forward Alex Newhook. The Newfoundland native was a first-round selection in 2019. That wasn’t very long ago.
He was an interesting player on that team, netting 30 points or more in both 2021-22 and 2022-23 with far less ice time than the usual suspects on that roster. The 23-year-old (22 at the time) felt like a nice fit with a Montreal squad that was relatively young on the attack and whose ceiling would increase over the subsequent campaigns. Alas, injuries prevented Newhook from partaking in as many games as he and the club would have liked in 2023-24 (55).
In 2024-25, Newhook stays healthy and his presence pays dividends. Colorado’s loss is Montreal’s gain, especially if he can find a regular spot on the second line. Keep in mind that last season he netted 34 points, his most ever, in 27 fewer games than in his final campaign with the Avs. The talent is there. He just needs to stay healthy.
Laine Comes Back Better Than Ever
There was never going to be a version of this article that didn’t mention Patrik Laine. Montreal’s awesome new acquisition fell victim to an unfortunate, highly awkward play in a preseason game versus Toronto and will be out for 2-3 months.
Fans, pundits, podcasters, and writers have gone on and on about how the Laine trade could end up being one of the best moves the Canadiens have done in quite some time. That’s all on hold for now. However, should his recovery prove expedient and emphatic, there is no denying that having a player with a proven track record of being a 40-goal scorer would mean the world for Montreal. This group cannot score (2.83 goals per game last season, finishing 26th).
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Laine proves to the hockey world that he still is the player the Winnipeg Jets and Columbus Blue Jackets thought they had and restores some offensive lustre to the Canadiens’ reputation as a terrific second-liner.
Best Result: Strong First-Round Performance
Montreal scores more goals on a nightly basis than they have in years. The defence does not necessarily go from bad to great but shows signs of improvement to alleviate pressure on the netminding. The prognosticators who picked the Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings as the Atlantic Division teams who would squeeze into the postseason all say: “Oopsie. Our bad,” as the Canadiens get a wildcard spot. They face the Florida Panthers in the opening round and put on a heck of a show with a six or seven-game exit. There is no deep Stanley Cup run but 2024-25 is the campaign the Habs announce to everyone they’re worth getting excited about.
Worst-Case Scenario Arguments
Defence Never Improves
Our Canadiens writing team has spent a lot of time on the keyboards figuring out, analyzing, and making sound, educated predictions of what the defensive pairings might be this season. It’s an intriguing mix of older veterans like David Savard (33) and Mike Matheson (30) and young studs like Kaiden Guhle (22) and Arber Xhekaj (23). Plus, everybody lost their minds when prospect phenom Lane Hutson took to the ice for the final pair of regular season matches last April.
The problem is the defence isn’t good. Two seasons ago it gave up the fourth-most shots on goal in the league and last season the third-most. They also had the sixth-worst expected goals-against figure in 2023-24.
In 2024-25, as the forwards see their goals, assists, and points totals increase, all their plus-minus figures remain patently mediocre. The blue line continues to struggle, lacking toughness and composure.
Lack of Discipline and Penalty Kill
They say it’s good to take certain penalties. Don’t let the opposition shove you around. Be an annoyance to the other team. Break up plays. Fair enough.
But that won’t lead to anything positive if a club not only takes way more penalties than they have to but can’t kill them off either. The Canadiens have been a bottom-10 group in both respects in the last two seasons. They can’t stop sending their own to the sin bin and when they do their rivals are happy to oblige on the power play. Don’t do the crime if you can’t do the time!
Head coach Martin St. Louis fails to control his players, who continue to be reckless and undisciplined on the ice. He couldn’t the past two campaigns. Why would that suddenly change? Xhekaj becomes a wild card the fans love and hate in equal measure.
St. Louis Simply Isn’t the Guy
This would be a rather bitter pill to swallow considering that he was given a two-year extension shortly after the conclusion of 2023-24. As it stands, he will be behind the bench until the end of the 2026-27 season. Obviously, supporters want this to work out, as does everyone operating within the club.
The truth is the improvements over his two-plus seasons (he arrived in February 2022) have been tiny. Squint and maybe you can spot them. They didn’t score a lot in 2022-23, nor did they in 2023-24. They gave up plenty of goals in 2022-23 and again in 2023-24. They conceded tons of shots in 2022-23 and continued that trend in 2023-24. They took endless penalties in -… you get the point.
We should remind readers that St. Louis’ predecessor, Dominique Ducharme, was fired less than a year after coaching the Canadiens to the Stanley Cup Final. Making the Cup Final sounds like a better result than missing the postseason unless we missed the memo.
Come mid-April 2025, St. Louis is given his marching orders.
Worst Result: No Playoffs, Another Lost Season
The 2024-25 Canadiens are barely a different version of their 2023-24 selves. Laine’s absence until at least December – if not January – puts the team behind the eight-ball. The defence is not much better than last season’s, which means Montembeault, a decent if unspectacular goalie, struggles. Some players improve their stats, like Suzuki and Slafkovsky, but when the prize is the playoffs, it’s all for naught.
Montreal once again clears its locker room in mid-April. The end-of-season media session features a collection of bewildered faces and tired expressions. Players are internally wondering that maybe this group isn’t good enough. St. Louis insists that he’s proud of his boys and the team will come back stronger in September. Unbeknownst to him, his time with the club will be cut short the week after.
Those are our best and worst-case predictions for the Habs. The irony of writing them during the final days before the regular season begins is that the fanbase is digesting the Laine injury. That’s a problem that might very well make some of the less desirable predictions come true. Come what may, there is never a dull moment when following the Canadiens. The match on Wednesday versus the Maple Leafs already has plenty of spice, and that’s game one of 82.
