The season is still young, with only four games played so far. While it’s early, the Toronto Maple Leafs have shown positive signs, winning three of their four games. They’ve also outscored their opponents by a 2-1 margin (14 goals for, seven against). However, a closer look at the team’s lines reveals notable differences in performance, with two lines standing out—one excelling and one struggling.
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Based on 5-on-5 on-ice statistics from Natural Stat Trick, this analysis breaks down the early season’s best and worst lines and explores what these differences mean for the team moving forward.
The Best Line: Max Domi/William Nylander/Bobby McMann
Max Domi, William Nylander, and Bobby McMann have been the standout performers for the Maple Leafs. This line has delivered offensive and defensive results. Their combined statistics reflect dominance across key areas:
Goals-For and Against
This line has been on the ice for five goals scored and zero goals against; a perfect 100% Goals-For Percentage (GF%).
| Player | Goals For | Goals Against | GF% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Domi | 5 | 0 | 100% |
| William Nylander | 5 | 0 | 100% |
| Bobby McMann | 5 | 0 | 100% |
| Combined Average | 5 | 0 | 100% |
Expected Goals-For and Against
While their actual goals percentage is perfect, their Expected Goals For Percentage (xGF%) is also impressive. This stat measures the quality of chances a line generates and concedes.
| Player | Expected GF | Expected GA | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Domi | 2.29 | 1.67 | 57.8% |
| William Nylander | 1.86 | 1.65 | 52.9% |
| Bobby McMann | 1.28 | 1.15 | 52.8% |
| Combined Average | 1.81 | 1.49 | 54.8% |
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High-Danger Scoring Chances For and Against
This line again shines in creating and limiting high-danger chances (HDCF%), with an impressive 79.1% combined percentage.
| Player | HDCF | HDCA | HDCF% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Domi | 14 | 3 | 82.4% |
| William Nylander | 12 | 3 | 80.0% |
| Bobby McMann | 6 | 2 | 75.0% |
| Combined Average | 10.7 | 2.7 | 79.1% |
Combining these three metrics makes this line’s overall effectiveness a remarkable 78%, marking it as the top-performing trio early in the season.
The Worst Line: John Tavares/Nicholas Robertson/Pontus Holmberg
While the Domi-Nylander-McMann line has flourished, the Tavares-Robertson-Holmberg combination has struggled. Despite maintaining a Goals-For Percentage of 50%, the underlying numbers tell a different story.
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Goals-For and Against
This line has scored one goal and allowed one, breaking even at 50% GF%.
| Player | Goals For | Goals Against | GF% |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Tavares | 1 | 1 | 50% |
| Nicholas Robertson | 1 | 1 | 50% |
| Pontus Holmberg | 1 | 1 | 50% |
| Combined Average | 1 | 1 | 50% |
Expected Goals-For and Against
This line fares much worse in terms of expected performance. Their xGF% is a mere 32.6%, indicating they are heavily outplayed.
| Player | Expected GF | Expected GA | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Tavares | 0.76 | 1.54 | 33.0% |
| Nicholas Robertson | 1.23 | 2.20 | 35.9% |
| Pontus Holmberg | 1.16 | 2.61 | 30.7% |
| Combined Average | 1.05 | 2.17 | 32.6% |
High-Danger Scoring Chances For and Against
Their ability to create and defend high-danger chances is also concerning, with just a 36.6% success rate.
| Player | HDCF | HDCA | HDCF% |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Tavares | 4 | 7 | 36.4% |
| Nicholas Robertson | 6 | 9 | 40.0% |
| Pontus Holmberg | 5 | 10 | 33.3% |
| Combined Average | 15 | 26 | 36.6% |
Overall, this line’s effectiveness is just 39.7%, highlighting it as a significant weak spot in the Maple Leafs’ lineup.
How the Other Maple Leafs Lines Stack Up
The team’s other lines have fared as follows:
- Auston Matthews/Mitch Marner/Matthew Knies: 66.7% effectiveness
- David Kämpf/Steven Lorentz/Ryan Reaves: 53.3% effectiveness
Related: Despite Dominant Win, Maple Leafs Still Have Work To Do
It’s worth noting that the Kämpf-Lorentz-Reaves line has an Expected Goals-For Percentage of 62.7% and a High-Danger Chances Percentage of 63.9%, suggesting that they have been unlucky in converting their chances (Goals-For Percentage of just 33.3%).
Max Pacioretty’s Impact
One player to consider is Max Pacioretty, who hasn’t factored into these stats. However, despite the drama around his being a healthy scratch, he’s been excellent in limited action. He’s posted a 62.9% Expected Goals Percentage and a 63.6% High-Danger Chances Percentage, suggesting he could be a significant boost once fully integrated into the lineup.
How Can the Maple Leafs Improve?
The numbers show that the Maple Leafs’ top two lines—Matthews/Marner/Knies and Domi/Nylander/McMann—are excelling and should remain intact. The fourth line of Kämpf/Lorentz/Reaves is performing well overall but has been somewhat unlucky and could improve with better puck luck.
The Tavares/Robertson/Holmberg line is the weak spot. The underlying numbers suggest they are struggling to keep up with the opposition. One solution could be to reintroduce Max Pacioretty into the lineup. His chemistry with Tavares in the early season and preseason could provide a much-needed offensive spark.
Pontus Holmberg’s defensive skills, while usually solid, haven’t been enough to offset the line’s struggles. On the other hand, Robertson has shown flashes of offensive potential, which might mesh better with Pacioretty and Tavares.
Looking Ahead for the Maple Leafs
With Calle Järnkrok and Connor Dewar on long-term injured reserve (LTIR) and close to returning, the Maple Leafs must make some tough decisions regarding roster space. However, improving the Tavares line by bringing Pacioretty into the mix seems like a logical step toward increasing the team’s overall effectiveness.
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Ultimately, these early-season statistics offer valuable insights into which lines work and which need adjustments. With a few changes, the Maple Leafs could become an even more formidable team as the season progresses.
[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]
