On a recent Real Kyper & Bourne episode, hockey analysts Nick Kypreos, Justin Bourne, and Sam McKee discussed the uncertainty surrounding Mitch Marner‘s future with the Toronto Maple Leafs. They explored whether Marner might be mentally disengaged from the team and the risks the organization is taking by not securing an extension.
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In the video below, you can hear them discuss certain points:
Could Marner Have Mentally “Checked Out” Already?
Kypreos introduced the possibility that Marner might already be contemplating a future beyond the Maple Leafs. He noted that star players nearing significant contract decisions often start weighing personal and professional factors, such as family preferences, alternative markets, and team success—or lack thereof. This mental process, Kypreos argued, can plant a seed of doubt, growing into a broader sense of emotional disengagement.
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In Marner’s case, this could mean his focus isn’t entirely aligned with the Maple Leafs’ long-term plans, even if his on-ice performance remains strong. Kypreos suggested that such doubts could influence a player’s outlook by midseason, particularly if the team fails to show playoff promise. This raises concerns about whether Marner’s heart is fully in Toronto, potentially impacting extension negotiations.
Are the Maple Leafs “Rolling the Dice” on Marner?
Bourne and McKee highlighted the high-stakes gamble the Maple Leafs are taking by entering the season without clarity on Marner’s future. This strategy is risky for several reasons:
Reason One: The Core’s Playoff Struggles
The core group of Auston Matthews, Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares has consistently underperformed in the playoffs. Despite their talent, they have only won one postseason series. Banking on this core to suddenly achieve deep playoff success is a significant gamble.
(Photo by Kevin Sousa/NHLI via Getty Images)
Reason Two: Salary Cap Considerations
Marner’s asking price could escalate with the NHL salary cap projected to rise. Kypreos speculated that his next deal might demand $12 million or more annually, making it harder for the Maple Leafs to maintain roster flexibility.
Reason Three: Might Trade Leverage Shrink?
Delaying decisions about Marner’s future could limit the Maple Leafs’ leverage in potential trade talks. Teams might hesitate to offer significant assets for a player on an expiring deal, especially if his long-term intentions are unclear.
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By not extending Marner or exploring trade options now, Toronto is betting that this season will validate his place in their plans. However, failure in the playoffs could leave the team in a difficult position with few options.
Overriding Question: Can This Maple Leafs Core Finally Deliver?
The Maple Leafs’ playoff history loomed large in the discussion. Bourne and McKee questioned the wisdom of committing to another massive contract for a player who has yet to translate regular-season brilliance into postseason dominance. While Marner is undoubtedly among the NHL’s elite, his inability to lead the team deep into the playoffs remains a sticking point.
If the Maple Leafs falter again, critics will likely revisit their decision to retain the same core group. As Bourne noted, extending Marner now could backfire if the team cannot overcome its playoff shortcomings.
What Could Marner’s Next Contract Look Like?
The panel speculated about the financial implications of extending Marner. Kypreos suggested Marner’s camp might seek a raise to around $12 million annually, reflecting the anticipated cap increase. Bourne argued that Marner is worth more than Nylander, given his overall impact, while McKee questioned whether committing such resources is wise without playoff success.
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Waiting until later in the season to negotiate could complicate matters. If Marner has a stellar campaign, his value could skyrocket. Conversely, if the Maple Leafs underperform, it may bolster arguments for a roster shakeup, making long-term commitments more uncertain.
The Bottom Line: Marner Has Become a High-Stakes Gamble
The Maple Leafs’ handling of Marner’s future reflects a tension between loyalty to their core players and the pressure to deliver results. If Marner is mentally checked out, as Kypreos suggested, it could erode trust between the player and the organization. Similarly, the team’s decision to roll the dice by not locking in an extension or exploring trade options adds to the risk.
Ultimately, this situation underscores the volatility of the Maple Leafs’ current trajectory. Will the 2024-25 season provide the clarity both Marner and the team need to move forward? Or will it force difficult decisions about the future of the team’s core? As the season unfolds, the stakes for both parties couldn’t be higher.
