In the NHL, Stanley Cup Playoff contenders typically trade away their first-round picks in the middle of the season to improve their chances at winning Lord Stanley, specifically at the trade deadline. An opportunity to upgrade the roster is usually well worth sacrificing a first-round selection. We’ve seen this trend with the Tampa Bay Lightning in their Stanley Cup contention window.
Lightning Historically Trade Their First-Round Picks
Tampa Bay has made just one first-round selection in the last five drafts, Issac Howard at 31st overall in the 2022 NHL Entry Draft. The Lightning don’t have their first-round pick for the upcoming 2025 Draft, as they sent the pick to the Nashville Predators in a lopsided Tanner Jeannot trade. While many fans are eager to hold onto the 2026 first-round selection, the Lightning should use the pick to take another shot at the Stanley Cup this season. The team’s moves in the offseason have expanded their contention window, and now’s not the time for general manager Julien BriseBois to be conservative.
Lightning Have Struggled to Develop First-Round Talent
Since the Steven Stamkos era started in 2008, when the Lightning drafted him with the first overall selection, the team has whiffed on nearly every first-round pick. They have made two successful selections in the last 16 years. One was Victor Hedman at second overall in 2009, which was a layup that didn’t require much thought. He was head and shoulders above all the defensemen in his draft class. With his massive frame, Hedman looked like a future NHL superstar for years to come. The other successful pick by the Lightning was goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy at 19th overall in the 2012 NHL Entry Draft. He just reached 300 wins with the Lightning and remains the backbone of the franchise in goal today.
Outside of Vasilevskiy and Hedman, the next best player who provided some value for the Lightning was Vladislav Namestnikov. If one considers him a success at 27th overall, the Lightning have hit on three out of 11 draft picks since 2009, not including Howard since he’s never played an NHL game. That’s roughly a 27% success rate on first-round picks in the last 16 years. While players like Johnathan Drouin and Brett Howden are solid NHL talents in 2024, the Lightning could not develop them and shipped those players off for better assets. In Tampa Bay’s eyes, they were busts.
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Some of the Lightning’s draft disasters in recent memory include Brett Connolly at sixth overall in 2010, who played four seasons with the Lightning from 2011-15, recording a high of 15 points in 50 games with the team in 2014-15. He would become a decent NHL player for a few seasons, even capturing a Stanley Cup with the Washington Capitals. Another rough pick for the Lightning was Slater Koekkoek, who suited up for Tampa Bay from 2014-18. The Lightning selected the defenseman 10th overall in the 2012 NHL Entry Draft. His career-high in games played with the organization that drafted him was 35 in 2017-18, where he notched eight points. Koekkoek struggled to amount to any success in the NHL following his departure from the Lightning.
What Should the Lightning Target in Return?
While I’m in favor of trading the 2026 first-round pick, I don’t think the selection should be automatically moved. The pick must be traded strategically for the right price, specifically for young, somewhat established talent. Tampa Bay needs help on the offensive front, mainly more secondary scoring from their middle-six forward group. Furthermore, adding a bottom-pairing defenseman isn’t a bad idea either. Some buy-low options include Nils Hoglander and Nicholas Robertson from their respective Canadian teams. If the Lightning want to go big, they could inquire about names like Joel Farabee and Trevor Zegras. Finally, they could look for a middle-ground target like Kaapo Kakko.
Regardless of the young talent they target, the Lightning should not throw away their 2026 first-round pick for a 30-year-old rental player. The Lightning are trending in a younger direction, and adding an impact player with the potential to flourish in the organization for years would be an intelligent decision.
