Heading into the season, the St. Louis Blues were not expected to compete for a playoff spot. The team has been in a retool for nearly two years, and the young core’s development was a priority. However, strong play under newly appointed head coach Jim Montgomery has halted the team into playoff contention, leading many fans to call for a playoff push. While making the playoffs would be a great success, sacrificing the future to achieve this goal would be short-sighted.
Analyzing the Blues’ Odds to Make the Playoffs
Currently, the Blues are not even in a playoff spot. They sit three points behind the Vancouver Canucks for the second Wild Card position in the Western Conference, and nine points behind the Colorado Avalanche for the third spot in the Central Division. To make the playoffs, they would need to catch fire while hoping that one of the teams currently holding a playoff spot cools off.
Related: St. Louis Blues’ Top 10 Prospects: 2024-25 Midseason Update
According to MoneyPuck, the Blues have a 24.9% chance to make the playoffs. Notably, this is ahead of the Canucks who hold just a 23.5% chance, yet the Blues still sit ninth in the Western Conference in playoff odds. This is not to say there is no chance it will happen, but the math is by no means encouraging.
In addition to MoneyPuck’s odds, simple logic makes a compelling case the Blues will have a tough time making the playoffs. In the Central Division, the Avalanche, Winnipeg Jets, and Minnesota Wild have each solidified themselves in the top three of the division. This is not to say they cannot be overcome, but it is a very tough hill to climb. For the Wild Card race, St. Louis will be competing against either the Avalanche or Dallas Stars, who, despite losing Tyler Seguin to injury in the fall, sit comfortably, nine points ahead of the Blues in the standings with three games in hand.
All of the teams ahead of the Blues are going to improve at the trade deadline, too, meaning the team will likely be competing against the Canucks, Flames, and Utah Hockey Club for just one spot, only to face a powerhouse like the Jets or Vegas Golden Knights. However, this does not mean the Blues shouldn’t try to get there.
What the Blues Should Do
At this point, the Blues core is what it is, but the team should still implement smaller changes to improve the roster. The first decision that should be made is to promote top prospect Dalibor Dvorsky to the NHL. The 19-year-old has 11 goals and 21 points in 27 games in the American Hockey League with the Springfield Thunderbirds this season. He still has a lot to work on, but his early professional play has been very encouraging, and promoting him to solve some of the Blues’ concerns down the middle would be a great decision.
Dylan Holloway and Jordan Kyrou have played very well together this season. With the two on the ice, the Blues hold a 70 goals percentage (G%) and 58.90 expected goals percentage (xG%), according to Natural Stat Trick. When only one of them is on the ice, those numbers drop, and with neither on the ice, the team posts a 36.22 G% and 39.60 xG%. The message is clear: keep them together. Slotting Dvorsky between them on the second line would strengthen the forward group while continuing to develop the young talent.
From here, the Blues should play Brayden Schenn and Zack Bolduc together. Like Holloway and Kyrou, Schenn and Bolduc have chemistry together. When both are on the ice, the Blues have an 80 G% and 72.73 xG%. Playing Brandon Saad on the left wing would solidify this line.
The fourth line is where the Blues must focus on improving. So far, only one combination — Nathan Walker, Radek Faksa, and Alexey Toropchenko — has logged over 50 minutes together. However, that trio has struggled, posting a 37.3 xG%, 46.2 G%, and being outshot 161 to 134. Addressing this weakness is crucial, as bolstering the fourth line would significantly enhance the team’s playoff chances.
Oskar Sundqvist should be a lineup mainstay on the wing, while Faksa remains a valuable piece at center. However, the left-wing position needs someone new, and Pittsburgh Penguins veteran Blake Lizotte stands out as an ideal trade target. With a cap hit of just $1.85 million per season and strong penalty-killing skills, he would be a smart addition to solidify the fourth line. Though his offensive numbers this season are likely inflated, his impact would be well worth a mid-round draft pick.
With Philip Broberg fully healthy, the Blues do not need to shake up the defense, but it is time to give Scott Perunovich a chance to play full-time. Tyler Tucker and Matthew Kessel have not been great this season, while Perunovich has impressed on both ends of the ice. Slotting him alongside Ryan Suter would give Montgomery three, balanced defense pairings.
With Alexandre Texier and Matthieu Joseph sidelined, the Blues should explore trade opportunities to bring in late-round draft capital. While neither player has performed poorly this season, neither projects as a long-term fit for the team. Capitalizing on their current value would be a smart move to strengthen future assets.
Jimmy Snuggerud is an interesting player to keep an eye on. He has had a great season at the University of Minnesota, but signing him to an entry-level contract to finish this season would only make sense if the Blues were in the playoff race. Otherwise, the team should urge him to sign an amateur tryout with Springfield and then his entry-level contract in the summer to get him under that lower cap hit for one additional season.
If these moves were implemented, the Blues lines would look something like this:
Jake Neighbours – Robert Thomas – Pavel Buchnevich
Dylan Holloway – Dalibor Dvorsky – Jordan Kyrou
Brandon Saad – Brayden Schenn – Zack Bolduc
Blake Lizotte – Radek Faksa – Oskar Sundqvist
Cam Fowler – Colton Parayko
Philip Broberg – Justin Faulk
Scott Perunovich – Ryan Suter
Jordan Binnington
Joel Hofer
With these moves, the Blues would not sacrifice any substantial assets while building a more competitive team. As well, the development of the youth would be a priority, allowing the future of the franchise to gain much-needed experience without limiting them to bottom six minutes. With this self-proclaimed retool still underway, it is vital Blues management does not make any irrational trades in a year that is already a whopping success.
