On Friday night, the Vegas Golden Knights (31-15-4) and the Dallas Stars (31-17-1) played in one of the more entertaining games of the season. The Dallas Stars held on for a 4-3 win. Before the game, ESPN showed clips of last spring’s playoff battle, which the Stars won 4-3 after the Golden Knights squandered a 2-0 series lead. If you don’t remember, it was one of the more entertaining rounds of the 2024 playoffs. Five of the seven games were decided by one goal, and the other two games Vegas won by only two goals. Game 3 went to overtime, where the Stars were eventual 3-2 winners. The series was close and hard-fought all the way through, and Friday night was no different.
Related: Robertson Scores in Thrilling 4-3 Win Over Golden Knights
Sure, it may not have exactly been playoff intensity, but these two teams have a history and you can see it in every game they play. As the game rolled on, and knowing they play again on Tuesday night, it had me thinking. What exactly is the history between these two teams? Could they play each other in the spring once again? If so, who would win? Both of these teams are Stanley Cup contenders, there’s no question. But who has the upper hand?
It’s a Short Rivalry, But a Great One
When it comes to the regular season, Vegas has the slight edge, with a 12-4-3 record across 19 regular season matchups, from 2017 to their most recent game on Friday night. 12 wins might not seem too “slight”, but seven of those games went to overtime. That is reflected in the Stars’ record, which is 7-8-4. From the 2022-23 season to the present day, they have played in nine regular season games and only two have not been decided by one goal. Moreover, five of them went to overtime, which speaks to the win-loss record we just touched on. There are many great rivalries in the NHL, but in my opinion, there are no two teams better matched than the Golden Knights and the Stars.
If Vegas has the edge in the regular season, the Stars have made up for it so far in the playoffs, winning two of the three postseason matchups. The Stars won 4-2 in the 2020 Western Conference Finals, and 4-3 in the first round last season. The Golden Knights won the 2023 Conference Finals 4-2 before going on to win the franchise’s first Stanley Cup.
The Story So Far
Before the season began in October, you could have told me either of these teams would be representing the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup Final and I would not have argued. I may have had a different opinion, but there would be no argument. Now that we’re beyond the halfway point of the season, both teams are close to where they were predicted to be.
The Golden Knights have led the Pacific Division for the majority of the season. They were leapfrogged by the Edmonton Oilers with the Oilers winning on Monday night, but until Tuesday, they’ve been the kings, or the Knights, of the Pacific. January has been their worst month, entering Tuesday with a 6-6-1 record since the calendar turned. They were 7-3-1 in October, 8-4-2 in November, and 10-2-0 in December. They’ve been the definition of consistent all season long, despite stubbing their toe a bit here in January.
The Stars, on the other hand, started their quest for the Cup a little bit slower. After finishing October with a sparkling 7-2-0 record, they went 15-11-1 in the last two months of 2024. 22-13-1 isn’t a horrible record by any stretch of the imagination, but for an elite team like the Stars, there were a lot of concerns popping up as the season went on. Their Power play, scoring, and their road record are a few of them, all of which have been covered in depth here at The Hockey Writers. Since Christmas, they’ve really turned up the heat — they are 9-4-0 in January and have jumped up to second place in the Central Division, one point up on the Minnesota Wild and eight points back of the Winnipeg Jets.
The Case for Vegas
The one knock on the Golden Knights has been their penalty kill (PK.) Up until now, their season has been bookended by bad penalty killing. In October their PK was 73.9%, and in January it was 67.9%. In November it was 81.3% and in December it was 87.5%. It’s hard to pin down why there’s such a huge disparity from month to month. I’m sure you could, but just looking at the numbers, it’s a real head-scratcher. Alright, there are my five negative sentences about the Golden Knights. If you don’t like Vegas for whatever reason, I hope you enjoyed it, because there’s not much else negative to say.
For how down their PK has been, their power play more than makes up for it, entering Tuesday third in the NHL at 28%. They are fourth in the NHL with 3.4 goals per game and have allowed 2.74 goals per game, which is good for eighth-fewest.
In addition, they may be the deepest team in the league, and if not, they’re pretty darn close. Jack Eichel leads the charge with 15 goals and 62 points in 49 games. Mark Stone keeps doing Mark Stone things, with 13 goals and 44 points in 36 games. In his first full season in a Vegas uniform, Tomas Hertl has 18 goals and 39 points in 50 games. In total, the Golden Knights have eight players with double-digit goals and six players with 30-plus points.
All of those players are very, very good. But none of those numbers should be a big surprise. Two pleasant surprises, though, have been Pavel Dorofeyev and Brett Howden. Dorofeyev has 21 goals and 31 points in 50 games (he had 20 career goals in 67 games before coming to Vegas, just to put into perspective on how good this season has been for him.) Howden has 16 goals and 22 points in 59 games, which isn’t overly impressive just looking at it, but looking at it from the context of his career, it’s been a breakout season of sorts. He had 39 goals and 62 assists in 351 games before this season.
When it comes to comparing the forward groups between Vegas and Dallas, the case could be made for both. I would probably lean toward the Stars having the slightly better offense, despite scoring fewer goals, but I watch Dallas every night so take that for what it’s worth.
That being said, there’s no argument as to who has the better defensive group: it’s the Golden Knights all day long. They have studs up and down the defensive pairs, and it’s hard to find a hole there. On top of the defensive side is the offensive production, which is something that the Stars’ d-men don’t have. Shea Theodore has six goals and 44 points, Noah Hanifin has 21 points, and Alex Pietrangelo has 25 points. Those numbers are actually a bit low for players of this caliber, but the way that they move the puck and get involved offensively, you’d have to think those numbers will tick upward as the season moves along.
The Case for Dallas
When comparing these two rosters, the first obvious win for the Stars is the goaltending battle. As good as Adin Hill is, and as serviceable a backup as Ilya Samsonov has been, Jake Oettinger is the best goalie between these two teams. Oettinger is 24-11-1, with a .913% save percentage (SV%) and a 2.28 goals against average (GAA). He’s second in the NHL in wins, eighth in SV% among goalies with 25-plus starts, and fifth in GAA among goalies with 25-plus starts. December was his only down month as he lost five of his 11 games. Besides that, he’s been stellar all season long, including January, where he is 7-2-0. He’s also undefeated on Sundays, which doesn’t matter at all, but is kind of interesting.
The special-teams story for Dallas is the exact opposite from Vegas. Their power play (PP) has been a struggle all year long, entering Tuesday at 19.2%, which is 23rd in the NHL. In October, the PP was 20.7%, in the following two months, it was 17.1% and 10.4%, putting them in the bottom five of the NHL for the majority of the season. In January, it seems they have turned the ship around, going 33.3% with the man advantage, moving them up to 23rd in the NHL overall. Their PK has been dominant all season, going 84.7%, which is third in the league.
Offensively, the Stars have found a consistent scoring touch. Matt Duchene, Jason Robertson, and Roope Hintz, lead their team is scoring with 18, 17, and 20 respectively. Mason Marchment has 12 goals and has been out with an upper-body injury for a few weeks, and there’s still no word on his return.
If the Season Ended Today
If the season ended today, both teams would finish in second place in their divisions. The Stars would play the Wild in the first round, and the Golden Knights would play the Los Angeles Kings. What this means is, that if both teams finish in the top three in their division, they probably wouldn’t meet in the playoffs until the Conference Finals. This is the final that we deserve.
The Oilers made it to the Conference Finals against Dallas last season, and they’ve been a good team for a while. The Colorado Avalanche won the Cup recently and lost to the Stars in the second round last season. Both of those teams could absolutely make a run. The Kings and the Wild would be a fun story, considering they weren’t necessarily expected to be where they are in the standings right now, especially the Wild. There are also star players all over the place when it comes to the teams I’ve just mentioned. Oh, and we can’t forget about the Central leading Jets.
However, when it comes to the crème de la crème of the West, the Golden Knights and the Stars have been in the mix for a little less than a decade. Every time they play it’s a close, hard-fought battle. Their rosters are just about as even as any two teams in the NHL. We all want to see stars such as Nathan MacKinnon and Connor McDavid, and others. But when it comes to history, longevity, and rivalry, there’s no question in my mind that the Stars and Golden Knights is the Western Conference Final that we deserve. Look no further than last Friday. I suspect Tuesday night in Vegas will yield similar results.
