One four-game Montreal Canadiens win streak later and the Habs are just three points back of the second wild-card spot. The “just” is meant to be relatively sarcastic in nature, instead of conveying how close they are to making it, though. Ultimately, in a span of a week, during which they earned eight points, they gained ground to the tune of just three, when they had been six back of the Detroit Red Wings upon returning from the 4 Nations Face-Off break.
That’s just the nature of the wild-card race and how hard it is to make it. For the Canadiens to, they’ll probably need somewhere in the neighbourhood of 30 more points over their remaining 22 games (.680 hockey). And, while the four-game win streak has been nice in stark contrast to the 1-7-1 stretch Habs fans suffered through just prior to the break and they’ve played some inspiring hockey over the last week, the fact of the matter is, over their last two wins, they’ve barely gotten by the last-place San Jose Sharks and last-place-in-the-Eastern Conference Buffalo Sabres, with another game against the latter set for Monday.
So, general manager Kent Hughes must approach the March 7 trade deadline logically. As critical as this latest streak is for them to have gotten back in the race, they can still beat the Sabres again at home and then the Edmonton Oilers on the road this coming Thursday ahead of the deadline on Friday and not gain any additional ground whatsoever. Or they could lose both and give back whatever ground they’ve just gained, which might actually prove to be a blessing in a disguise and force him to come to the conclusion he should trade away as many of his pending unrestricted free agents as possible instead of going for it.
Of course, anything can happen. There’s a chance Hughes does (go for it) and there’s a chance he hedges his bets and simply trades away the pending UFAs he feels he won’t be able to re-sign (if he evens wants to go that route). With that in mind, here are the likeliest candidates to not only stay with the team up to the offseason but also into 2025-26:
5) Joel Armia
There’s little disputing things have changed somewhat since the point at which Pierre McGuire reports the Canadiens tried to trade Joel Armia three years ago.
In that time, Armia has:
- Gotten demoted to the American Hockey League
- Gotten another crack at the NHL due to injury
- Set a new career high in goals (17) that same season
- Gotten named the Canadiens’ Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy candidate as a result
- Gotten named to Finland’s 4 Nations Face-Off team, one has to believe for his fairly inspired work as a defensive/penalty-kill specialist
So, Armia has some value. It’s should nevertheless be hard to ignore that he also has at least some value on the trade market and he makes $3.4 million to effectively play on the fourth line due to a contract signed by Hughes’ predecessor, Marc Bergevin.
Armia is going to be 32. This could be his last chance to cash in and it’s highly unlikely he’s in the Canadiens’ long-term plans. So, it’s fairly safe to say, he won’t get re-signed and Hughes will find a taker for his services by this time next week. It just remains to be seen what he’ll get in exchange.
4) Jake Evans
The only reason Jake Evans ranks higher than Armia on this list as someone who’s more likely to get re-signed by the Canadiens is because he’s still in his prime at Age 28 and in the midst of a career season for all intents and purposes, during which he’ll likelier than not finally hit 30 points for the first time. Considering the role he plays as a checking-line centre, that’s undeniably impressive.
Nevertheless, Evans will be 29 by the time free agency rolls around. He’s probably looking for some security in the form of term on top of a healthy raise compared to his current $1.7 million cap hit. If the Canadiens give it to him, they risk putting themselves in a similar situation to the one they found themselves with Armia, having overpaid him for the role he plays on the team, eventually looking for a trade partner to rid themselves of the deal.
Related: Evans at Risk of Pricing Himself Out of Canadiens’ Long-Term Plans
Suggestions the Canadiens could package Evans and Armia speaks to that mindset within the media (and their value as defensive specialists right now). Meanwhile, reports the sides are far apart in negotiations speaks to that same mindset within the organization. As prospect Owen Beck, who projects as a bottom-six centre and someone who could conceivably replace Evans, has gotten extended looks on the roster over the last few months, it looks like the writing is on the wall for Evans’ departure sooner rather than later.
3) Michael Pezzetta
Now, Michael Pezzetta probably won’t get traded at the deadline for the simple reason he’s a 13th forward who has only dressed for 14 games this season. All due respect to him, but “dressed” is used instead of “played” because head coach Martin St. Louis has barely used him, hinting at how the Canadiens probably see him as more of a body than anything else.
That’s not especially fair to Pezzetta. However, it does seem to be a fair representation of the situation, where, even with fourth-liner Emil Heineman injured, the Canadiens refused to give him a regular shift to the point he was regularly on the ice for fewer than four minutes each game.
All that to say, even though Pezzetta will likely stick past the trade deadline, it’s unlikely he re-signs. In some respects, he’s the perfect 13th forward who doesn’t require regular playing time and doesn’t complain when he doesn’t get it, but ultimately there doesn’t seem to be interest on the part of the Canadiens and there shouldn’t be interest on his part to stay when he’s going to be 27 with potentially other opportunities that arise via free agency, one has to hope for his sake anyway.
2) David Savard
Yes, Pierre LeBrun reported there have been no contract talks between the Canadiens and David Savard. So, this could be his last season with the team. And it makes sense if only due to how he’s a defensive defenseman who had been signed by Bergevin, when Hughes came in as someone with a vision of a team that played more of an offensive style. As Savard is a remnant of the last regime, there could simply be no place for him.
However, then Kaiden Guhle got injured (again), shining a light on the team’s sudden lack of depth on defense, especially on the right side (with Guhle himself being a left-handed shot who has been played on the right). Sure, the recently acquired Alexandre Carrier provides stability at the position, but beyond him the Canadiens would have prospects Logan Mailloux and David Reinbacher, neither of whom having made lasting inroads to transitioning full time to a permanent role on the team. In Reinbacher’s case, he’s effectively lost a season of development with an injury sustained during training camp.
So, it wouldn’t be crazy for Hughes to at least consider keeping Savard around, as long as it’s for less money ($3.5 million) and a shorter term than the four years he’s played for the organization so far. As he’s 34, “shorter term” translates to a one-year deal, with the potential to reassess at this point in 2026. Ultimately though, there’s little denying interest must be lukewarm at best, based on LeBrun’s report, which is kind of telling as to just how likely it is that Savard (or anyone else on this list) actually stays with the team.
1) Christian Dvorak
That same sentiment applies to Christian Dvorak, who objectively has failed to live up to expectations after having been acquired to become the team’s second-line centre in 2021. That’s putting it politely, when it’s uncertain he’s so much as the team’s third-line pivot these days considering his place in the lineup compared to Nick Suzuki, Jake Evans and Kirby Dach who, despite his own struggles, effectively took over that No. 2 role from him.
However, similar to Guhle, Dach has since gotten injured (again). Once he gets healthy the Canadiens may determine he’s not a centre after all. Meanwhile, as has been documented above, Evans is likely gone too. So, that leaves Suzuki and Beck (probably) down the middle to start 2025-26. While there’s little disputing Dvorak has been a disappointment, he could be a cheap short-term solution if the Canadiens choose to re-sign him, with the understanding the 29-year-old is simply best-suited to a third or even fourth-line role.
Dvorak’s value is really low to the point it seems likely the Canadiens would only be able to get a late-round pick if at all for the guy. In such an instance, it probably makes sense just to keep him down the stretch in case of injury and not make any more call-ups than they need to from the in-contention Laval Rocket. And, if Dvorak stays past the deadline, the chances increase significantly that he doesn’t even make it to free agency.
Now, this is a long shot for several reasons. There’s obviously the notion Dvorak, despite his prowess in the face-off circle, is relatively expendable to the Canadiens. However, from Dvorak’s perspective, he’s 29. He may not want to resign himself to a bottom-six role.
Wherever Dvorak goes, he’s probably taking a proverbial show-me contract for a single season, but it’s probably in his best interest to sign with a team that’s not quite as far along in its rebuild as the Habs. That way, he has at least a shot at playing more of a prominent role. From there, he can try to take steps to rebuild his career and maybe get back to signing another contract two years down the road as a top-six option. Going down that road won’t come in a Canadiens jersey, though. That much is certain, seeing as it hasn’t worked out here for him in that capacity up to now. It can still “work out” in principle, just not ideally for him, which puts these rankings in the proper perspective. Chances are no one stays (assuming Hughes properly assess the situation).
