Following a frustrating 5-1 loss to the Dallas Stars on Monday night (Apr. 13), the Colorado Avalanche find themselves down 3-1 in their Western Conference second-round series. The loss came on the heels of the team finding out that they would be without the services of defenseman Devon Toews and winger Valeri Nichushkin, though winger Jonathan Drouin returned to the lineup.
While Toews’ absence was due to an illness and should be back for a pivotal Game 5, Nichushkin was placed in Stage 3 of the Player Assistance Program of the NHLPA and NHL. This means that he will be suspended without pay for a minimum of six months after which will be eligible to apply for reinstatement. This marks the second-consecutive postseason that he was away from the team due to personal reasons, and deals a major blow to the Avalanche’s Stanley Cup hopes as he was tied for the playoff lead with nine goals at time of the announcement.
The Avalanche look overwhelmed by the Stars’ depth and speed and successfully engineering a comeback against a team which finished one point behind the New York Rangers for the Presidents’ Trophy is unlikely, but not impossible. Four teams have come back to overcome 3–1 series deficits since the 2019 Playoffs, with the Florida Panthers famously accomplishing the feat just last postseason.
Let’s dive into the three major keys to an Avalanche revival and how Colorado can climb back into the series by executing their game plan in a potential series-deciding game on the road.
Key No. 1: Get Out to a Better Start in the First Period
It’s easier said than done and I don’t want to take away from how suffocating the Stars’ forecheck has been, but the Avalanche must find a way to start games with greater urgency and more precise execution.
The Stars have scored the first goal in every game of the series and apart from Game 3, have raced out to 3-0 or 4-0 leads. The Avalanche scored four unanswered goals to steal Game 1 in overtime, but were felled by empty-net goals which extended the Stars’ one-goal leads in Games 2 and 3. Most damning is the fact that the Avalanche have never led in regulation time at any point in the series.
The Stars have also outshot the Avalanche in three out of the four first periods in this series, amassing a plus-12 shot differential (39-27) across the opening frame. The first period of Game 4 saw the widest discrepancy in the shot count, with Dallas tallying 16 shots to Colorado’s two. The Avalanche have outshot the Stars 64-34 over the final two periods partly due to the impact of score effects, but have failed to make the territorial dominance count outside of Game 1.
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The Avalanche possess the offensive talent to mount improbable comebacks on a nightly basis, and have done so all season long. They scored the second-most second-period goals in the league during the regular season and rank second in the playoffs for third-period tallies, but that isn’t a proven recipe for postseason success.
The playoffs are a different beast, and the Stars’ dominance has demonstrated that slow starts can be fatal. If the Avalanche have any hope of mounting an improbable comeback, a stronger opening to Game 5 is non-negotiable.
Key No. 2: Improved Execution on Special Teams
Apart from Game 1, in which the Avalanche capitalized on both of their second-period power-play opportunities to fuel their comeback, they have been lifeless. The power play has failed to convert for three straight games (zero for eight), sit two-for-10 on the series, and also allowed a pair of back-breaking shorthanded goals which decisively swung momentum in Dallas’ favour.
Astute readers will note that the Stars’ have scored as many shorthanded goals this series as the Avalanche have power play goals, a far cry from Round 1 in which the Avalanche torched the Winnipeg Jets for six goals on 16 opportunities.
The Avalanche power play ranks last or second-last among teams in the second round by shots, chances, and expected goals generated per 60 minutes. The Stars have resoundingly shackled the star-studded group and neutralized a critical source of the Avalanche’s offense.
The penalty kill hasn’t kept up its end of the bargain during the series either. The Avalanche’s PK units have conceded four goals on 12 opportunities, including three occasions in which the Stars either scored the first goal of the game or extended an established lead.
The leaky penalty kill can’t be placed on the shoulders of the much-maligned Alexandar Georgiev, either. As is the case with the power play, the Avalanche have allowed the highest or second-highest rate of shots, high-danger chances, and expected goals in Round 2, regularly failing to secure the area around their crease.
The penalty kill went 13-for-16 in Round 1 (76.9%) which wasn’t spectacular, but even performing at that level could have prevented the Avalanche from needing to mount multiple inspired comebacks.
Both special teams must improve in Game 5 if the Avalanche hope to stay alive in this battle of Western Conference behemoths. They have the personnel to do so, but execution is the key with little room for error going forward.
Key No. 3: Avalanche Stars Must Show Up
This key is slightly reductive as it follows that the team’s stars are not performing if the power play is not firing and slow starts have become commonplace. Still, the Avalanche need much more from the likes of Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Cale Makar, especially with the likes of Toews and Nichushkin out of the lineup.
At least two of Colorado’s three stars contributed to their first three goals in Game 1 prior to Miles Wood’s overtime winner, but they’ve been limited to one goal (Rantanen) and two points in the three games since.
The Stars have seen contributions from across their entire lineup, with 10 players having scored at least one goal and four with at least two through four games. In comparison, the Avalanche have eight with at least one (seven if you exclude Nichushkin), but only one skater with at least two.
While their depth has shone through, the Stars’ success has primarily been driven by two of their rising talents in forward Wyatt Johnston and defenseman Miro Heiskanen.
Heiskanen should be well-known to even fair-weather NHL fans by now despite never being named a Norris Trophy finalist in his six-year career. He starred in Dallas’ run to the 2020 Stanley Cup Final with 26 points in 27 games as a 20-year-old, and ranks behind only Makar and Victor Hedman in playoff scoring by a defenseman since his first appearance in 2019. The Finnish defender leads the series with three goals and seven points and has outperformed Makar at both ends of the ice.
Johnston has enjoyed a meteoric rise in this, his second NHL season. He led the Stars in scoring during the regular season with 32 goals, and is tied for third across the 2024 Playoffs with seven goals in 11 games. The 21-year-old has scored three goals in the series, including a shorthanded marker to open the scoring in Game 4 after stripping Makar as he attempted to break out of the defensive zone.
Johnston finds himself in elite company, and has outshone his more decorated counterparts. If the Stars advance, expect Heiskanen and Johnston to be the front-runners for the Conn Smythe Trophy. If the Avalanche hope to turn the tide on the series, they need their own stars to perform.
Stars head coach Pete DeBoer has leaned heavily on defensive stalwart Chris Tanev against the Avalanche’s triumvirate at five-on-five, a tactic which has paid immense dividends. Avalanche head coach Jared Bednar will not have the benefit of last change in Game 5, but getting his top forwards away from Tanev is imperative in unlocking their potential.
Avalanche Staring Down an Uncomfortable Offseason
The Stars clearly have all of the momentum having won three straight by multi-goal margins including both games in Colorado, but the Avalanche still have a path to winning the series in spite of the long odds. Focus and attention to detail are variables that have nothing to do with the quality of one’s opponent, and both the Avalanche players and Bednar can make significant improvements in this regard.
If they fail to do so, an uncomfortable offseason could be in store amid uncertainty surrounding the long-term futures of Nichushkin and sidelined captain Gabriel Landeskog, who last played in Game 6 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final.
I don’t mean to pre-write a eulogy, but having another year of Stanley Cup contention with the core of MacKinnon, Rantanen, and Makar wasted due to external factors would be excruciatingly frustrating. Let’s hope Game 5 sparks the start of a memorable turnaround, rather than setting the stage for an underwhelming conclusion to a once-promising campaign.
Data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and the NHL.