The Colorado Avalanche did not add many external reinforcements during the first, and busiest, part of the 2024 NHL offseason. A pair of defensemen in 33-year-old Calvin de Haan (one year, $800,000) and 24-year-old Erik Brannstrom (one year, $900,000) were the most notable additions outside of re-signing Jonathan Drouin (one year, $2.5 million) and Casey Mittelstadt (three year, $5.75 million average annual value – AAV) to new deals.
The front office’s activity or lack thereof speaks to a level of confidence in their current crop of players, superstars or otherwise. If the Avalanche are to return to the pinnacle of the Stanley Cup mountain in 2024-25, these three players in particular must have a bounce-back campaign and perform to the levels expected of individuals commanding their respective cap hits. If they fail to do so, their NHL futures may reside outside of Colorado. With that, let’s dive in.
Samuel Girard, Defenseman
59 games played (GP) – 3 Goals (G) – 15 Assists (A) – 18 Points (PTS) – 19:23 Average Time on Ice (ATOI)
Before delving into his performance, it would be unfair to note that Samuel Girard spent time in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program last season, something that would undoubtedly affect his play on the ice.
With that context in mind, Girard submitted a disappointing season by his standards as a defenseman earning $5 million annually against the cap. His three goals, 15 assists, and 18 points all set or tied career-lows in his single-season production and trade rumours have stirred up debate as to how the Avalanche could allocate his cap hit more effectively around the roster.
Girard’s performance is integral to the Avalanche’s on-ice fortunes as their most utilized defender beyond the top pair of Devon Toews and Cale Makar. He’s ranked fourth in average ice time over the past two seasons, moving up to third last season following the Bowen Byram for Mittelstadt trade at the trade deadline.
Detractors have pointed to Girard’s slight frame and defensive shortcomings as reasons to make a change, especially as physicality becomes a more notable variable during the playoffs. He played an important role during Colorado’s 2022 Stanley Cup run when healthy and continues to be a large part of their success. The rising salary cap means his cap hit becomes less of a hindrance going forward, but there’s no arguing he needs an improved performance in 2024-25.
Alexandar Georgiev, Goaltender
63 GP – 42 Wins (W) – 3.02 Goals-Against Average (GAA) – .897 Save Percentage (SV%)
The Avalanche’s starting goalie Alexandar Georgiev is by far the player with the most to prove this season, especially in a contract year. Despite playing virtually the same amount of games as in the season prior, the 28-year-old saw his numbers, both traditional and advanced, fall across the board compared to his debut campaign with the Avalanche.
| Statistic | 2022-23 | 2023-24 |
|---|---|---|
| GP | 62 (3rd) | 63 (2nd) |
| SV% | .919 (10th) | .897 (51st) |
| GAA | 2.53 (16th) | 3.02 (44th) |
| GSAx | 18.7 (11th) | 0.45 (48th) |
There is an argument to be made that the heavy workload wore Georgiev down in his second season with the Avalanche, where he played one more game than in 2022-23. His pre-Avalanche career-high was 34 games played with the New York Rangers during the 2019-20 season, a total he would approach twice more with 33 games played in both the 2018-19 and 2021-22 seasons.
Georgiev is one of three goalies who have played in at least 60 games in both of the past two seasons (Juuse Saros and Connor Hellebuyck are the others). While Hellebuyck maintained his play year-over-year and won the 2024 Vezina Trophy for his efforts, Saros struggled in the same vein as Georgiev.
Recent trends have seen starting goalies playing fewer and fewer games and goaltending tandems have become all the rage. In 2013-14, eight goalies played 60 games or more with 16 playing 55 or more. 10 years later in 2023-24, only the aforementioned three goalies played 60 games and only 10 played 55 or more.
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The upcoming season will be a critical point in Georgiev’s journey with the Avalanche. 24-year-old Justus Annunen has shown promise while appearing in 14 games in 2023-24 (.928 SV%) and could be seen as a cheaper, more reliable alternative to the inconsistent Russian netminder especially if he seeks a raise on his next contract based on his comparable peers. A return to his 2022-23 levels in both the regular season and the playoffs would go a long way in cementing his reputation as a tried and tested starter.
Ross Colton, Center
80 GP – 17 G – 23 A – 40 PTS – 13:43 ATOI
As is the case with Girard, it’s difficult to quibble with Ross Colton’s overall production given that he received little to no powerplay time for the majority of the season and found himself on the lower rung of middle-six usage.
Colton saw a five-on-five ATOI of 11:40 during his debut season which put him 266th among qualified forwards (minimum 500 minutes at five-on-five last season). This increase represented about a single minute jump over his final season with the Tampa Bay Lightning, but still doesn’t align with the $4 million he makes annually with the Avalanche and leads to questions about his future with the franchise.
When it comes to his scoring rates, Colton grades out favourably compared to his positional peers. Among qualified forwards using the same parameters as before, he ranked 96th in total assists per-60-minutes, 86th in primary assists per-60, and 132nd in points per-60. Those numbers flirt between borderline first-line to second-line production and suggest he should be given more ice time both at even strength and with the man advantage.
The issue is that those impressive rates of production do not always translate as players see their roles elevated and often face more difficult competition. Colton becoming a regular second-line forward is unlikely as Mittelstadt seems to have leapt over him in the hierarchy up front. The former Lightning forward couldn’t make the second-line center spot his own, and the subsequent trade-and-extension involving Mittelstadt was a reflection of that reality.
2024-25 Season Could Be Crucial For These Avalanche Players
While Georgiev becomes a free agent next summer, both Girard and Colton have multiple years remaining on their current contracts. It’s more likely that the Avalanche scour the market for a new goaltender than the latter two leaving, but the cap situation could be complicated by the potential returns of captain Gabriel Landeskog ($7 million AAV) and Valeri Nichushkin ($6.125 million AAV), both of whom will not count against the cap for wildly different reasons to start the season.
The reality of the salary cap environment is that even the most important players could become casualties in certain situations. These players have the most to prove going into the 2024-25 season and should hopefully elevate their performances with such pressure underlining their campaign.
Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, the NHL, and PuckPedia.
