As the 2024 NHL Playoffs continue to roll on and the 2024 Stanley Cup Final matchup set, other teams are preparing to execute their offseason plans. The 2024 NHL Entry Draft is scheduled for June 28-29 at Sphere in Las Vegas and the beginning of NHL free agency is July 1, with both marquee events slated to take place within the next four weeks.
The Colorado Avalanche enjoyed another impressive regular season, finishing eighth in the league standings with 107 points despite being without the services of several notable players due to injury for extended periods of time. The team’s playoff run was extinguished in the second round at the hands of the Dallas Stars, leaving everyone in the organization frustrated after another missed opportunity in the Nathan MacKinnon era.
If the Avalanche hope to win the fourth Stanley Cup in franchise history (they won in 1996, 2001, and 2022), the front office must navigate a difficult offseason while keeping an eye on contracts expiring in the not-so-distant future.
Let’s dive into what’s in store for general manager Chris MacFarland and how the Avalanche can extend their Stanley Cup window well beyond next season, despite the spectre of a looming cap crunch.
NHL Salary Cap Expected to Continue to Rise Significantly
The COVID-19 pandemic stalled what was anticipated to be significant growth in the NHL’s salary cap. The subsequent economic downturn forced the league to freeze the upper cap limit at $81.5 million for the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons after increasing by at least $2 million for four consecutive seasons prior. While the Avalanche were not alone in this regard, the lack of growth squeezed a few of the team’s free agents out of the dollars needed to re-sign.
While yet to be confirmed, the NHL’s salary cap limit is projected to rise to $87.7 million next season and could potentially reach $92 million ahead of the 2025-26 campaign. This potential hike represents the first increase of five percent or more since the cap jumped by six percent for the 2018-19 season. The NHL could reach a $100 million cap by 2027-28 if it continues to jump by five percent or more each season, a development which would be a watershed moment for the league in the cap era.
Avalanche’s Offseason Plans Hinge on Landeskog and Nichushkin
While that’s getting slightly ahead of things, it bears keeping in mind for projecting how the Avalanche could assemble their roster for the rest of the decade. For now, they have nine noteworthy free agents up for renewal this summer (six forwards and three defensemen), a sizable group that is headlined by a pair of top-six forwards in center Casey Mittelstadt and winger Jonathan Drouin.
The Avalanche are projected to have $22.9 million in cap space during the 2024 offseason with 13 players under contract (seven forwards, four defensemen, and two goalies). Of course, that total does not take into account two of the organization’s biggest wildcards in captain Gabriel Landeskog and winger Valeri Nichushkin, with their presence being in question for two wildly varying reasons.
Landeskog, under contract for $7 million per season through 2028-29, is in the midst of a rehab that has spanned two seasons at this point. Multiple surgeries and setbacks have relegated the Swede to tedious off-ice rehab work for the most part, though he engaged in light skating and shooting drills on his own away from the team in the final few months of the season.
Landeskog confirmed that he wouldn’t be retiring in a season-ending press conference alongside MacFarland, though neither man could commit to a concrete date for his return.
On the other hand, Nichushkin ($6.125 million cap hit through 2029-30) is arguably just as much of an unknown variable going forward after violating the terms of the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance program in the middle of the Stars series. The forward was placed in Stage 3 of the program and earned a six-month suspension without pay. A third violation would place Nichushkin in Stage 4 of the program, which carries an unpaid one-year suspension and no guarantee of reinstatement.
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The front office should prepare for at least one of them to return during the upcoming season which would significantly affect how the Avalanche operate in the short- and long-term. They are both under contract and collectively account for over $13 million against the cap for the next five seasons (barring assignment to long-term injured reserve or suspension).
If either player returns during the 2024-25 regular season, the Avalanche must have the cap room to activate them onto the roster. Assuming that is the case, the team will have $9.8 million to sign (or promote) at least three more forwards and two defenders.
It’s impossible to gain much clarity or certainty from such situations, but the front office must do so in order to restructure the supporting cast around their band of superstars.
Rantanen Extension Highlights 2025 Offseason Plans
Assuming both Landeskog and Nichushkin resume their playing careers and the salary cap rises to the projected $92 million, the Avalanche currently have $63 million owed to six forwards, four defensemen, and one goalie for the 2025-26 season. New deals for Mittelstadt and Drouin this summer will cut into that total.
That leaves just over $28 million for another six forwards, two defensemen, and one goalie which seems manageable, but the identities of those needing a new contract that season complicate matters.
Shorthanded demon Logan O’Connor and starting goaltender Alexandar Georgiev will be up for renewal as unrestricted free agents, and both could make a case for a raise on their $1.05 million and $3.4 million cap hits respectively.
Beyond that, superstar winger Mikko Rantanen will be 27 years old and seeking a much more lucrative deal than his current compensation of $9.25 average annual value (AAV). Only four players have scored more goals and only three have more points since the start of the 2020-21 season, so Rantanen and his agent will have their eyes set on being a top 10 highest-paid player in the NHL.
Direct positional comparisons can be made to other wingers such as William Nylander ($11.5 million AAV), David Pastrnak ($11.25 million), Mitch Marner ($10.9 million), and Artemi Panarin ($11.6 million), though none of that group can match Rantanen’s combined regular-season and playoff output. It’s difficult to envision the Finnish winger receiving a contract worth less than $11 million annually, and getting up to $12 million would make him the fourth-highest-paid player in the NHL.
Assuming Rantanen’s contract is worth $11 million annually on the dot, the Avalanche will have just over $17 million with which to play. If Mittelstadt and Drouin make $10 million combined, that leaves $7 million to allocate between three forwards, two defensemen, and one goaltender. That could prove to be a very tight squeeze for MacFarland and company, and could result in a few cap casualties.
Defensemen Samuel Girard ($5 million AAV) and Josh Manson ($4.5 million) seem like prime candidates to be dealt given that the Avalanche have Cale Makar and Devon Toews locked up long-term. Manson is more likely to go since he is older and has fewer years remaining on his contract, but I wouldn’t put anything past this inventive front office.
2024 and 2025 Offseasons Could Determine Success of MacKinnon Era
For all of the hand-wringing I’ve done in this article, the Avalanche are admittedly in an enviable position. They have four of their five leading stars locked up for at least three more seasons (six of seven if you include Landeskog and Nichushkin) and none of them are overpaid. Cap space is a formidable tool to wield in the modern game, and arguably no other team has utilized theirs more effectively or efficiently than the Avalanche.
While the next two offseasons are fraught with obstacles, there are few NHL front offices better equipped to navigate such roadblocks. If the MacKinnon era is to bear the fruit of another Stanley Cup or two, escaping the following summers unscathed in terms of contractual boat anchors is key and could shape the balance of power in the Western Conference for years to come.
Data courtesy of CapFriendly and the NHL.
