The Columbus Blue Jackets have only played six games this season and currently sit at a 3-3 record. In spite of the many injuries already plaguing the roster, they have played competitively most nights and have exceeded expectations so far. That makes this team perfect for speculation and overreactions to early success. While it’s very possible that all of these hot takes could be wildly off in a couple months, there are a few trends that could be very interesting if they continue. Here are three predictions the Blue Jackets will see this season.
Daniil Tarasov Will Take Over the Net
The goalie position has been a weakness for the Blue Jackets since Sergei Bobrovsky left in 2019. While having some good moments in net, Elvis Merzlikins has had a pretty rough ride in his time in Columbus. While he began as the starter for the season opener, an early minor injury has left him with only two starts through the six games. Unfortunately for him, those starts weren’t particularly impressive either. He has allowed seven goals with a .854 save percentage (SV%) and lost both games he started. This was certainly not the start to the season that the Blue Jackets were hoping to see from the beleaguered netminder.
"We needed a strong start to the game, and I think we did a pretty good job with that."
— FanDuel Sports Network Columbus (@FanDuelSN_CBUS) October 23, 2024
Goaltender Daniil Tarasov tells Dave Maetzold that it was an unbelievable effort for the Columbus Blue Jackets to earn a victory over the Toronto Maple Leafs.#CBJ pic.twitter.com/iX29wIIZhN
But his poor start has opened the door for Daniil Tarasov. In four starts, he has posted a .888 SV%, allowing 13 goals and getting three wins. On the surface, these stats don’t seem too different. But if you look at the underlying statistics, he is significantly outperforming Merzlikins. Per MoneyPuck, he has a goals saved above expected stat of 0.2. That means he is making almost exactly the amount of saves he should be. Meanwhile, Merzlikins has a minus-3.6 goals saved above expected, which means he has given up almost four more goals than he should have in just two games. Tarasov is objectively doing a better job in net. While Blue Jackets’ general manager Don Waddell openly spoke this summer about needing to get Merzlikins back on track (from ‘Blue Jackets’ Elvis Merzlikins is staying, says Don Waddell: no trade, no buyout’, The Athletic, 6/20/24), it is ultimately up to the goalies to earn their starts. If both of them keep playing like they have, Tarasov will be the starter, and Merzlikins will be on his way to a buyout next summer.
Kirill Marchenko Will Be a Point Per Game Player
The Blue Jackets have only had one player score 82 points or more in a season. Artemi Panarin accomplished that feat in both seasons that he played for the Blue Jackets, putting up 82 and 87 points. Per Elite Prospects, the Blue Jackets have only had two other players who even averaged a point per game in a season where they played more than six games. Rick Nash did it twice with 79 points in 78 games and 54 points in 54 games. Patrik Laine did it once with 56 points in 56 games. This season currently has six Blue Jackets averaging a point per game or higher in Kirill Marchenko with 1.33 points-per-game (P/G), Kent Johnson with 1.25 P/G, Yegor Chinakhov with 1.17 P/G, Sean Monahan with 1.17 P/G, Justin Danforth with 1.00 P/G, and Zach Werenski with 1.00 P/G.
While certainly not all of those players will finish at their current scoring rates, Marchenko seems like the most likely candidate to stay at or above a point per game. He has been excellent at carrying the puck into the zone, as well as using his body to keep possession in tighter spaces. He has always possessed an elite shot, but he is doing more now to generate his own chances and set up others as well. His line with Monahan and Chinakhov was one of the top-producing lines across the entire NHL before they were split up due to team injuries. He has continued to show growth as a player, and this season looks to be a big breakout for the 24-year-old winger.
The Blue Jackets Will Finish Sixth or Better in the Metro
Most fans and experts alike expected the Blue Jackets to finish last in the Metro this season, and likely in the bottom three of the NHL. However, they have actually had one of their best starts in recent seasons. Under new head coach Dean Evason, they have played competitively almost every night, their offensive production so far actually set a franchise record with 24 goals in the first six games, and they may be finding a better answer in net. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Flyers have had a brutal start to the season, going 1-5-1 through their first seven games. The aging Pittsburgh Penguins aren’t much better with a 3-5-1 record through nine games. The New York Islanders are 3-2-2 through seven games and need their goalie Ilya Sorokin to continue to play at an elite level, even after coming off of surgery (from ‘Ilya Sorokin found way to be unbothered by surgery-altered preseason’, New York Post, 10/16/24). Even the New Jersey Devils are sitting at a mere 5-4-2 through 11 games.
Related: Blue Jackets Believe Defense is Trending in the Right Direction
The Metro has some big question marks this season. The Carolina Hurricanes and New York Rangers are most likely playoff locks. The Washington Capitals have been off to a surprisingly hot start, but they will likely come back down to earth at some point. If the Blue Jackets can keep their high-flying offense while continuing to tighten up their goals against, they will escape the cellar of the Metro and may even be competing for a playoff spot late in the season. A sixth-place finish in the Metro is more than reasonable to expect from this squad.
Wild Overreactions or Spot-on Predictions?
While the data may be limited, early signs have been very positive for the Blue Jackets this season. They will need to keep playing with the same intensity to achieve any of these predictions, but it isn’t crazy to think they could do it. An experienced head coach paired with a talented young roster could deliver a lot of unexpected and positive results. One thing everyone can agree on about this Blue Jackets team: they have been fun to watch.
