The Montreal Canadiens took several steps forward this offseason, and after making the playoffs, adding key players like Noah Dobson and Zachary Bolduc, and with a full season from top prospect Ivan Demidov ahead, it’s easy to believe the arrow is pointing straight up. But as expectations continue to rise, another realistic scenario is equally plausible: one where the Habs, despite all the progress, miss the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
This isn’t about finding flaws or nitpicking. It’s about understanding the context in which this team will try to take the next step. The path to the playoffs is far from guaranteed, and several factors could easily lead to another spring without playoff hockey.
Competitive Eastern Conference
No matter how much better Montreal is on paper, they still play in the Eastern Conference. The Atlantic Division, specifically, remains stacked at the top. The Toronto Maple Leafs, Florida Panthers, and Tampa Bay Lightning aren’t going anywhere. All three teams made the playoffs last season and are expected to do it again – it’s hard to imagine a scenario where they don’t take up the first three spots in the Atlantic. The Maple Leafs lost Mitch Marner, but they are still loaded with talent and are known for their regular-season success.
That leaves the final two wild-card spots, which will be a fierce fight. The New York Rangers, who missed the playoffs last season, are a strong bounce-back candidate. The Detroit Red Wings finished just five points behind Montreal and continue to trend upward. The Columbus Blue Jackets were only two points behind the Habs and have been quietly building and improving. Then there’s the Ottawa Senators, another talented young team that finished ahead of Montreal in the first wild-card spot in 2024-25.
The Canadiens, to their credit, are the most improved of that group this offseason. Dobson is a true top-pairing defenseman, Bolduc brings another offensive weapon, and Demidov has the potential to become a star. But the reality is, only two of these teams will make the playoffs. The Canadiens could very well be one of them, but there is always a chance things don’t go their way.
Canadiens Are a Young Group
There’s no question the Canadiens have built one of the most exciting young cores in the NHL. That’s part of what makes the team so fun to watch, but it also comes with risks. They had one of the youngest teams in the league last year, and after losing veterans like David Savard, Joel Armia, and Christian Dvorak, the group will be even younger heading into 2025-26.
Dobson may be experienced for his age, but he’s still just 25. Bolduc is 22, and Demidov will be a rookie. That’s a lot of youth, especially when the replacements for departed veterans are just as green. On paper, the upside is enormous, but young teams also tend to struggle with consistency.
We saw it last season. Montreal could go toe-to-toe with the best teams in the league one night and then fall flat the next. That inconsistency is normal for a rebuilding team, but with higher expectations, it will be costly this season. A bad month in the Eastern Conference could be the difference between sneaking into the playoffs and missing by five points.
Related: Canadiens 2025-26 Roster Projection 1.0: Post Draft & Free Agency
To be fair, this young group has already proven they can rise to the occasion. They got hot at the right time late last season and played clutch hockey down the stretch. There’s every reason to believe they can do it again. But there’s also a version where the increased lack of experience leads to inconsistency.
Canadiens Injuries Always a Factor
Every team has to deal with injuries, but Montreal has had a harder time keeping its stars healthy. Two projected top-six forwards, Kirby Dach and Patrik Laine, have lengthy injury histories. Dach missed nearly all of the 2023-24 season and 25 games last season; he has never played more than 70 games in a campaign. Laine has struggled to stay on the ice the last few years and should enter the season with something to prove.
If either one of them goes down, and history says chances are high, the Canadiens’ forward depth will be seriously tested. Joshua Roy and Owen Beck are next in line, and while both have shown promise, they’ve also shown that they aren’t fully reliable NHLers yet. Roy had flashes but struggled to stay consistent. Beck is defensively solid but still learning to manage NHL speed and pressure.
This article is not meant to rain on anyone’s parade. It’s simply a reminder that even when things are trending in the right direction, there are no guarantees in this league. The Canadiens are better, undeniably so. The roster is deeper, the core is maturing, and the fanbase has real reason to be excited. But the NHL doesn’t care about progress; it cares about results.
The Eastern Conference will be a war zone, and even a good team could miss the playoffs. If that happens to the Canadiens, it’s not a sign that things are broken. The foundation is strong. The rebuild is working. The future is bright. But the present, despite all the positivity, still has its share of uncertainty. Let’s hope they prove this article wrong.
