As far as Herculean efforts go, the challenge Rafael Harvey-Pinard faces is right up there. The Montreal Canadiens forward effectively has 13 more games to prove his 34-game rookie season in 2022-23 was no fluke.
An unlucky 13 games by their very definition constitute a small sample size, arguably a fluke in its own right if Harvey-Pinard were to replicate the same scoring pace he displayed when he scored his impressive 14 goals as a rookie.
Roy Injury Opens Up Top-Six Spot
It’s an even 14 games, if you include his scoreless showing against the Vancouver Canucks on March 21, which he started on the second line with centre Alex Newhook and right-winger Joel Armia, in Joshua Roy’s old spot. With Roy having proven himself as a fit after having gotten most recently called up from the American Hockey League, it’s an especially depressing turn of events for him to have gotten injured. He’s now out for at least a month, past the end of the season.
Related: Canadiens and Fans Both Win if Habs Keep Roy in NHL in 2023-24
However, keep in mind, Harvey-Pinard had been last year’s Roy for all intents and purposes. It’s really only due to the logjam up front in training camp that he got relegated to a bottom-six role to start the season, lowering expectations. In fact, when Kirby Dach, the team’s presumptive second-line centre, got injured a few games in, Harvey-Pinard moving into the top six was one of the main ramifications.
Up until Harvey-Pinard got injured for two months in November, he bounced around between the top line with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield and a line with his current centre, Alex Newhook. It’s fair to say, he failed to take advantage with all those chances. After notching two assists in the aforementioned bottom-six role to start the season, he only got two more helpers during his time in the top six. He only scored his first and only goal soon after returning from injury in January.
Obviously one goal in 32 games (eight points) is a far cry from the 14 in 34 contests Harvey-Pinard scored as a rookie. It’s not as much a sophomore slump as it is a sophomoric existential crisis. What is Harvey-Pinard exactly? Well the Canadiens have the luxury of a few weeks to find out, with zero pressure to perform.
Harvey-Pinard Has Perfect Opportunity to Prove Himself
Maybe that will do Harvey-Pinard some good. Maybe not, but the worst-case scenario is what? That he continues to fail to score and the Canadiens lose more than they have? When they’re a few games away from being officially eliminated from playoff contention anyway? When fan attention has shifted to how high they pick in the upcoming 2024 NHL Entry Draft?
As heartless as it may sound, no one will care if Harvey-Pinard continues to struggle. It will only confirm he’s a grinder in the mold of a present-day Brendan Gallagher, as opposed to a Gallagher in his prime, who regularly scored at a 30-goal pace while posting elite analytics (and similarly getting injured regularly).
The best-case scenario should be obvious. Harvey-Pinard proves he can fit in the top six, at least in principle. In practice, the Canadiens simply add to their scoring depth with a rejuvenated Harvey-Pinard further down the lineup. It should be abundantly clear he hasn’t played so badly to warrant a demotion, similar to Josh Anderson earlier this season, when nothing the power forward put on net was going in, even if the effort was there.
Unlike Anderson though, Harvey-Pinard’s contract is cost-effective. He’s also five years younger and, by virtue of him just having come out of his rookie season, has a whole career ahead of him. Now’s not the time to write him off. Now’s the time to nurture him. Realistically, he just needs a break to get going offensively.
No one should have expected Harvey-Pinard to pick up where he left off last season. Not only was a permanent spot on Suzuki’s line out of the question, but he was connecting on his shots on net at an unsustainable 24.1% clip, just under triple the league average. Now that he’s at 4.3%, he really only has higher to go, i.e., higher up the lineup, from where he had been.
If you’re looking for justification, Harvey-Pinard’s proven himself capable in the past. Given the right circumstances, who’s to say he can’t find at least some more success there? As he’s seemingly being given another, maybe last shot in the top six, only him. Whether his scoring was a flash in the pan or not, there’s no point hoping he doesn’t. Everyone loves a good underdog story after all. One way or another, this one’s ending hasn’t been written yet. There are 13 games left at least.
