You’re feeling pretty good about yourself today if you’re the Montreal Canadiens, following the acquisition of Alex Newhook from the Colorado Avalanche. At least to start the day, but that generalization just may not include fellow-forward Kirby Dach. There’s undeniably a lot to like with this deal overall.
It’s only natural to think of Dach following this latest trade on the eve of the 2023 NHL Entry Draft. A year earlier, at the 2022 edition, the Canadiens similarly dealt a first-round pick (acquired for Alexander Romanov) to acquire the much-maligned center/winger from the Chicago Blackhawks.
Related: Host Canadiens Steal Show by Getting Slafkovsky, Dach at 2022 Draft
This time around the much-maligned center/winger is Newhook, the 16th-overall pick from the 2019 Draft (when Dach got picked third), who had a disappointing 2022-23 season. Newhook scored 14 goals and 30 points in 82 games, when he had notched 13 and 33 in his 71-game rookie campaign the previous year.
Newhook vs. Dach
Even so, there’s little downside to acquiring Newhook. His level of talent is clear and, as Dach proved in his successful first season with the Canadiens, if you give young talent a chance to flourish (more than the 13:57 per game Newhook got last season for example… compared to Dach’s 18:30), you’re giving yourself a chance for good things to happen.
Furthermore, by buying low on Newhook, the Canadiens are putting themselves in a similarly enviable negotiating position with the restricted free agent, also like last year. Dach ended up signing a four-year, $13.45 million contract, which looks like a steal after he scored a career-high 14 goals and 38 points in 58 games (54-point pace).
Of course, “buying low” here means an excess first and an early second-round pick at the 2023 NHL Entry Draft and prospect Gianni Fairbrother. In a reportedly deep draft, that seems steep, but it’s still arguably less than what the Habs paid for Dach. Plus, in each case, it’s fair to argue the fact that Dach and Newhook were available at all is the “buying low” part. They each might have been untouchable even a year earlier relative to when they were acquired.
While their sizes are different (6-foot-4 for Dach and a “heavy” 5-foot-10 according to general manager Kent Hughes for Newhook), there are more similarities in that both could improve drastically in the faceoff circle. Newhook is just 38.6% in his career. Dach was 38.3% with the Canadiens in what was an “up” year for him so far.
Dach vs. Monahan
All that to say, Dach established himself as a legitimate option down the middle in spite of his lack of faceoff-taking prowess. He of course had been one all along, as his potential as a pivot served as the pretense to acquire him in the first place. However, once Sean Monahan suffered a season-ending injury last December, Dach was given the opportunity to contribute where he was intended to eventually, taking great strides in his development.
Therein lies the reason why Dach at least has reason not to be thrilled, especially following Monahan’s extension last week. In effect, the Canadiens didn’t need to re-sign the veteran. They could have gone with Dach as the team’s second-line center moving forward without anyone batting an eye. Re-signing Monahan potentially changes things instead.
Dach had also perfectly complemented Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield on the first line at right wing. If the Canadiens had opted to play him at center, they would obviously no longer have the option of playing him there, nor really any good alternative to be frank. A returning Monahan makes it a strong possibility the Canadiens go with that legitimate first line instead of spreading the wealth so to speak.
Now with Newhook (and Monahan), there’s more wealth, especially down the middle. Whereas Dach had been the only real second-line center option a few weeks ago, the Canadiens are suddenly in a position where they have several… and several good options on top of that. And, because the Habs know what they have in Dach as a top liner, the player they initially acquired specifically to play center may drop down the depth chart further at that one position as a result. It’s a good problem to have, though (if you’re the Canadiens).
A Still-Young Newhook Gets Fresh Start
It’s true Newhook had an up-and-down 2022-23 season at center with the Avalanche. However, he’s obviously more than a redundancy. You don’t give up what the Canadiens did unless you’re hoping he becomes part of the core. You just need to look at Dach’s 2022-23 season for a projection of what the Habs likely envision for Newhook, just elsewhere in the lineup, adding considerably to the team’s depth up front in the process.
Newhook’s potential makes it realistic. Sure, he needs to realize it first, but Dach truthfully only pleasantly surprised in 2022-23 from a production standpoint to solidify his standing in the team’s future plans. So, Newhook doesn’t need to become a star for this trade to be a success. Late first-round/early second-round picks generally don’t either, though.
Newhook doesn’t need to become Dach, to be clear. So, look for the comparisons to end eventually. He just needs to be a slightly better version of himself to start. If you can get on board with that being a likely outcome (and it is), you’re probably seeing what the Canadiens did making this trade. You’re probably smiling too.
Dach’s probably is not ear to ear or anything, but he’s at least smirking as a probable top liner on the Canadiens next season. He’ll be all right. The Canadiens are more all right than they were (at least heading into the Draft itself).
