They say, if someone shows you who they are, you should believe them. That’s especially true if it’s time and again, just like the Montreal Canadiens have shown general manager Kent Hughes they should be sellers over the last little while, including over a superficially impressive 4-3-2 January so far, as the 2024 trade deadline rapidly approaches.
Really, all the warning signs were there, and that’s even looking past how the Canadiens have lost more games than they’ve won. Granted, they’ve earned a possible 10 out of 18 points, which sounds super great and all. However, it’s not so much that they lost, but how they lost, even when earning their single points in extra-frame defeats to the Philadelphia Flyers on Feb. 10 and Edmonton Oilers on Feb. 13, getting outshot a combined 80-43.
Canadiens Get Embarrassed by Senators
Then there were the actual, regulation losses, which consisted of possibly the Canadiens’ three most embarrassing games of the 2023-24 season, each to a non-playoff team. The Habs lost 6-1 to the Buffalo Sabres on Feb. 4, 3-2 to the last-place, historically bad San Jose Sharks on Feb. 11, and, most recently, on Feb. 18, 6-2 to rival Ottawa Senators, who are last in the Eastern Conference.
In the process of getting blown out by a division rival in their last game, the Canadiens effectively undid any goodwill they might have built up in the minds of fans, with consecutive wins over the Colorado Avalanche and New Jersey Devils. It was the sixth time the Canadiens had won two in a row this season, failing each time to win a third.
In spite of the fact it was the Canadiens’ second game in two nights, you would have thought the Senators would have been the team against which they would have been able to pull off the “feat.” They at least seemed to think so, considering it was one of the few occasions in recent memory they faced the other team’s No. 1 goalie, while going with third-stringer Cayden Primeau themselves.
That’s not necessarily a knock on Primeau, either. He obviously didn’t look good, giving up five goals. However, when you’re outshot 37-23 against a team that has struggled more than you in the Senators, you’re obviously not giving your goalie any kind of significant support. And that’s been an unfortunate recurring trend this season, with a 28th-ranked expected-goals-for percentage (46.15%, per Natural Stat Trick).
Canadiens Won’t Make 2024 Playoffs
Ultimately, the Canadiens continually face backup goalies for a reason. Opposing teams generally see them as an opportunity to rest their starter and still win. Logically, if your opponents continually go with their backups goalies, you should take it as a sign of disrespect. And, while the Habs have been generally good about making them pay and taking advantage (arguably skewing their win-loss record in their favour), this was one instance where the Habs arguably didn’t respect their opponents in the Senators.
All things taken into consideration, it should be hard for anyone to take the Habs seriously as playoff contenders. In summary, they haven’t won three games in a row all season, they’ve been embarrassed badly on several occasions over the last little while, they have one of the toughest remaining schedules across the league… and they’re a seemingly insurmountable six points out of the last wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference.
While that last bit alone isn’t necessarily the final nail in the coffin in their 2023-24 season, especially only 45 games in, consider the full context of the situation: They had been playing better heading into the holiday break, albeit in large part due to an easier schedule. However, going 8-4-3 then enabled them only to tread water and stay neutral at four points back. They’ve now lost ground, and no one, especially Hughes, should delude themselves into thinking they can make a serious run at it down the stretch. That’s a good thing, though.
In that way, in a weird way, Canadiens fans should be grateful for this latest course correction, however painful it’s been in the moment. They’ve done Hughes a favour by clarifying for him how much further they have to go before the playoffs become a realistic goal. Ahead of the March 8 deadline there is no greater gift they could have given than that.
Canadiens Still Progressing in Their Rebuild
To be fair, some other good developments have come to pass this month. Nick Suzuki has continued his strong, consistent play en route to another All-Star Game nod. The struggling Cole Caufield has regained his scoring touch, with three goals and seven points in his last five games. And goalie Samuel Montembeault has strung together several impressive starts in a row, effectively establishing himself as this team’s No. 1 goalie… regardless of what Hughes has to say.
Related: Canadiens Goalie Montembeault a Starter in Principle Not Practice
Obviously, that’s in reference to Hughes saying at his mid-season press conference, “Personally, I don’t like to give a title to anyone, because I think that every day Sam should push to become the best goalie possible (from ‘What the Puck: Who are the real Canadiens?’ Montreal Gazette, Jan. 18, 2024).”
Keep in mind, Hughes did just give Montembeault a three-year extension, whereas the future surrounding his other two goalies is murky at best. Primeau has been placed on waivers by the media on like five separate occasions this season after disappointing appearances only to bounce back with star-of-the-game performances. Meanwhile, Jake Allen is the subject of daily trade rumours. So, take whatever Hughes and Canadiens management in general says with a grain of salt, including with regard to Sean Monahan.
Despite calls to re-sign Monahan the only logical reason to keep him in the fray at this point is to contribute to a run to earn a playoff spot. He has a long injury history, he’s about to enter his 30s and his production has fallen off since the start of the season, hinting at his inevitable decline. So, it makes little sense to commit to him over an extended period of time, when he’ll almost certainly be looking for as long of a contract as possible once he becomes a pending unrestricted free agent on July 1, especially after just having taken a one-year deal.
Look for Canadiens to Trade Monahan
So, with the Canadiens having played themselves out of the playoff race, Hughes has no reason but to trade Monahan. Furthermore, consider reports that have just surfaced suggesting the two sides had an agreement that Hughes would trade him.
If you must, suspend any disbelief Hughes would purposely remain non-committal at a nothing press conference, just so as not to paint himself into a corner. Instead look how well Hughes has built up this team, largely by trading veterans for future assets. Hughes too has been fairly consistent in showing fans how he operates, and he’s not going to stop now when the team’s inability to keep up in games regularly continues to boil to the surface.
Yes, the Canadiens have played well on occasion. They have won four games this month, after all, including the aforementioned two victories over the Avs and Devils. However, when you get outshot the other two times 81-48 (Dallas Stars on Jan. 2 and New York Rangers on Jan. 6), something is amiss. It doesn’t take a scientist to see what is. It just takes watching the Habs over a few games to realize they’re far from ready.