After about a week of rumors, it’s official: the New Jersey Devils inked former Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Brett Pesce to a six-year, $5.5 million contract. It’s pretty clear that he’ll be taking over the top-four role that John Marino once occupied. While Pesce does take up $1.1 million more than Marino, he appears much better suited to bring consistency and stability to the Devils’ blue line.
Marino vs. Pesce Comparison
First off, the Devils have let their youth get the better of them at times. Transitioning a top defensive role from a younger guy to a veteran will add an impact that can’t be measured by numbers alone.
But as far as the numbers go, Pesce checks all the boxes. On the offensive side of the puck, the two are basically a wash. Pesce averages 0.32 points per game (P/G) while Marino averages 0.33. He has two inches and 25 pounds on Marino.
Defensively, Pesce blocks shots at a rate that’s over 30% higher than Marino. He gives away the puck 23% less often, while taking it away just over 6% more. Neither defenseman hit often, but Pesce was much better at protecting passing lanes in the slot, something Marino (and the Devils as a whole) really struggled with. That should be music to Devils fans’ ears.
Marino has been plagued with inconsistency, as the Devils got a glimpse of how his whole career has shaped up: good year, bad year. Pesce brings much more consistency, as he’s a combined plus-82 since the 2018-19 season. His worst year of those was 2021-22, where he was still a plus-5. Pesce even got some down-ballot votes for the Norris Trophy in 2019 and 2021.
The Hurricanes had 43 more high-danger chances than the opposition when Pesce was on the ice. The Devils gave up five more than they created with Marino. While Marino’s expected goals for percentage (xGF) was solid at 52.71%, Pesce’s was even better at 56.05% (via Natural Stat Trick).
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And for critics saying that Pesce was on a better team, most underlying statistics still gave a slight edge to Pesce in 2022-23, when the Devils and Hurricanes finished within a point of each other in the Metropolitan Division. And that was Marino’s best season. Pesce appears to be the better penalty killer as well…he only got outscored by seven on the kill all of last season; Marino got outscored by 28.
Despite similar goaltending dynamics for both the Devils and Hurricanes, goaltenders played to a save percentage that was .020% higher for Pesce on the ice compared to Marino. That likely correlates directly to Pesce’s ability to protect the slot. I know .020% doesn’t seem like a big difference but it extrapolates to ~10-11 extra goals per season.
Furthermore, Pesce succeeded in limited minutes while playing on his off-side alongside Dougie Hamilton when they were teammates in Carolina (via MoneyPuck). That bit of knowledge definitely doesn’t hurt the Devils to keep in their back pocket.
And Pesce is due for an offensive bounce-back, as he had a career-low 13 points last season. He previously had seasons of 25, 28 and 30 points. But most importantly, he’ll eat up minutes and take some of the load off other defensemen, as he’s averaged over 21 minutes a night in his career.
He has more postseason experience than Marino and performs better. Pesce has managed 21 points in 57 playoff games with a plus-2 rating. Compare that to Marino’s production – six points in 29 games and a minus-1 rating. In the playoffs, Pesce lays the body at a 163% higher (!!) rate too, while giving away the puck ~10% less. He also takes the puck away 27% more frequently. And fun fact: Pesce scored the first goal of the Hurricanes’ playoff series against the Devils…with Marino on the ice.
Upgrades, Upgrades
You get the gist here: nearly everything Marino does, Pesce does better. So, when you consider that the cap hit is only $1.1 million more – but the Devils were also able to land the No. 1 North American goalie in the 2024 Draft and get an additional second-rounder for moving on from Marino – it’s a no-brainer. By the way, the Devils seemed to have hit home runs on their last two second-rounders in offensive defenseman Seamus Casey and goal-scoring winger Lenni Hameenaho. Who’s to say they can’t again!?
If healthy, Pesce’s stability on the blue line will have a ripple effect on the team, enabling them to return to their previous winning mindset. He may not be the flashiest or most noticeable, and that’s a good thing. Pesce is a consummate professional who should bring a steady presence to a team in dire need of it.
