There wasn’t a rookie lap for 19-year-old Matvei Michkov before his highly anticipated NHL debut on Friday night against the Vancouver Canucks – it was a rookies lap. That’s because Michkov had some company, courtesy of an even younger counterpart in 18-year-old Jett Luchanko. The team’s most recent first-round pick got off to a strong start in training camp and did enough throughout the preseason to convince the team’s decision-makers to keep him around.
“Going into training camp, I never thought he had much of a chance, more of an outside chance, small outside chance, to be honest. But he’s blown us away from day one,” said Flyers general manager Danny Brière on Monday. “The speed is one thing that really jumped out, top-end NHL speed already, at such a young age, that’s impressive. Then you start watching him play and it’s just the detail, all the little details in his game, the way he supports everybody, the way he makes players around him better was very impressive.”
Luchanko is the fifth Flyer of the salary cap era to play for the team in his draft-plus-one season. One of them is a defenseman (2008 first-rounder Luca Sbisa), but the other three are all centers, which makes for easy points of comparison. As Brière said, not every prospect develops the same, which is worth noting. But by measuring Luchanko against those who followed similar paths before him, we can gain more insight into the pros and cons of giving such a young player an NHL look this early.
Nolan Patrick, 2017-18
The Profile: Nolan Patrick was one of the top players in the 2017 NHL Draft. For a while, he was the consensus No. 1 pick, but an injury-plagued 2016-17 season and the late rise of Nico Hischier dropped him to second overall, where the Flyers took fresh off a lottery win that moved them 11 spots up in the selection order. He still scored at a strong rate when healthy in his final junior season (46 points in 33 games). But his 102-point campaign the season prior solidified him as a well-rounded, dynamic prospect.
The First Nine Games: All three players we’ll be looking at were Canadian Hockey League (CHL) prospects, as is Luchanko. CHL prospects can play up to nine NHL games in a season before burning the first year of their entry-level contract. It still takes a lot to earn that look, but there’s a big difference between merely earning the brief trial and a permanent role right out of the gate. Current Flyer Owen Tippett was one of many prospects to be sent back to junior after his trial run in his draft-plus-one season with the Florida Panthers in 2017-18 – he didn’t play in the NHL again until 2020-21.
Patrick, however, made the team with no qualifications. It took three games to get his first point and another to score his first goal, though he only added one assist in the next five contests. His 5-on-5 play was concerning, as his 40.26% expected goals share (xG%) was the worst of any regular (although the Flyers did outscore the opposition 6-2).
The biggest concern, which unfortunately became a sign of things to come, came in that ninth game. Patrick suffered a concussion, missing three weeks with what would be the first of many injuries that prevented his NHL career from truly getting off the ground.
The Long-Term: Patrick stayed healthy the rest of the season after that hit, and his game gradually progressed. After the All-Star break, Patrick scored 21 points in 33 games and pulled his head above water at 5-on-5 (50.36 xG%). Like most of the roster, he didn’t produce much in the team’s first-round exit to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Though things didn’t work out long-term, Patrick’s rookie season was solid.
Scott Laughton, 2012-13
The Profile: Scott Laughton is arguably the most similar to Luchanko, with one important asterisk. Their scoring profiles were fairly similar – Laughton scored 53 points in 64 games for the Oshawa Generals, while Luchanko tallied 74 points in 68 games last season for the Guelph Storm. However, junior scoring is much higher now than it was a decade ago – in Laughton’s draft season, two players reached 100 points and 14 cleared 80, compared to five and 23 last season, respectively. Laughton was also a later first-round pick to make the jump right to the NHL, going No. 20 overall, while Luchanko was picked No. 13.
However, Laughton had more time to get pro-ready before his audition came. A lockout delayed the start of the 2012-13 NHL season until mid-January, giving Laughton an extra half-season in the Ontario Hockey League to hone his skills before his first training camp with the Flyers. Luchanko, meanwhile, didn’t have that luxury, making him about six months younger than Laughton when they made their NHL debuts. That may not seem like much, but it can make a big difference in a sport as physical as hockey at such a young age.
The First Nine Games: It wound up just being the first five games for Laughton. He didn’t score any points and, like Patrick, ranked last among regulars in xG%. The Flyers sent him back to junior, and he wouldn’t play another game for the team until November 2014.
The Long-Term: Laughton played well upon returning to the Generals before taking a big step offensively in his final junior season, going from 56 to 87 points while also making Team Canada’s World Juniors roster. However, he struggled to establish himself as a full-time NHLer, going from 71 games with the Flyers in 2015-16 to just two the next season. The extra time the Flyers gave Laughton in the American Hockey League ultimately did him good, as he’s been a bottom-six staple since 2017-18 and more recently became part of the team’s leadership group.
Laughton was probably never going to be a truly elite NHL scoring forward and has had a good career. But given how long it took him to become an impactful NHLer after his initial look, it’s fair to wonder if his transition may have been smoother if it had come later.
Sean Couturier, 2011-12
The Profile: The Flyers acquired the No. 8 pick in the 2011 Draft the day before it began in the blockbuster trade that sent Jeff Carter to the Columbus Blue Jackets. With all the first seven selections having solid to spectacular careers, drafting a bust would have been tough. But they avoided that and then some by selecting their future captain, Sean Couturier, fresh off consecutive 96-point seasons in the Quebec Maritimes Junior Hockey League, playing 68 games in 2009-10 and 58 in 2010-11 while possessing the defensive tools that would eventually make him a Selke Trophy winner.
The First Nine Games: Couturier did something none of the other players on the list did – jump onto a roster expected to compete for the Stanley Cup. The Flyers had 106 points in 2010-11 and put up 103 in Couturier’s rookie season. Though he had his “Welcome to the NHL” moment early, he tallied a respectable four points in his nine-game trial.
More telling, he was third among the team’s regulars with a 58.82 xG%, and the Flyers outscored opponents by a 5-1 margin with him on the ice at 5-on-5. He was also the team’s second most-used penalty-killing forward, showing his versatility and hockey IQ. The only area he truly struggled in out of the gates was the face-off dot (41.5%).
The Long-Term: A Flyer did lead the NHL in rookie goal scoring that season, but it was the undrafted Matt Read with 24 tallies. Couturier had 27 points but finished just slightly behind Read in Calder Trophy voting due to his stellar two-way play, even finding his name on the Selke Trophy balloting.
In time, Couturier’s offensive came around, as he turned into a legitimate star in 2017-18 when he registered 76 points and finished second in Selke voting. He remained that player for the next few seasons before injuries threw a wrench in things starting in December 2021. Then again, it took until 2017-18 (Couturier’s seventh NHL campaign) to clear the 40-point mark. Perhaps more time in junior would’ve led to a quicker scoring bump in his NHL career.
Jett Luchanko, 2024-25
While Luchanko didn’t have a jaw-dropping first game, all the hype about his proficiency in the details of the game did show up. His 56.16 xG% was second on the team to only Tippett, although he couldn’t recover in the middle quickly enough to prevent a Vancouver goal in the second period. He showed potential but wasn’t overwhelmingly amazing by any stretch.
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Related: What to Expect From Flyers’ Jett Luchanko’s Season
If the Flyers are hoping for Luchanko to take the quickest path to reaching his ceiling, a move back to junior would probably be wise. Laughton and Couturier both struggled to take the next step for several seasons and Patrick’s second season was essentially a carbon copy of his first. But if they believe the benefits of being a part of the team’s lauded culture and developing chemistry with the team’s other young talent take priority (the Flyers controlled all of the play in the brief 1:39 he played at 5-on-5 alongside Michkov), Luchanko could benefit from the trial by fire approach.
“He might be here one day or he could be here the whole season, there’s nothing guaranteed,” Brière said. “We’re taking it day by day. But he’s been really impressive and so far he’s earned the rights to start with [the Flyers].”
All Advanced Statistics via Natural Stat Trick
