In a season that hasn’t been without its hiccups, the Vegas Golden Knights are still at a point where they probably feel pretty good about themselves with the playoffs on the horizon. Boasting a 6-0-1 record in their last seven games, the club has gotten hot at the right time and is now positioned comfortably in the Pacific Division after recently finding itself in a surprisingly tenuous playoff position.
After briefly being forced to consider a reality in which they wouldn’t even advance to postseason play, the Golden Knights can now look ahead to potential first-round matchups. So, while we can safely assume that none of the Western Conference’s top teams are too keen to see Vegas across the ice from them in Round 1, who would the defending Stanley Cup champions prefer to face? Let’s rank the club’s possible opponents from least desirable to most:
4) Dallas Stars
In the unlikely scenario that the Golden Knights fall back into a wild card spot and cross over outside of the Pacific Division, the top of the Central Division brings something of a “pick your poison” proposition. Potential clashes with the Dallas Stars and the Colorado Avalanche (more on them momentarily) both carry drawbacks, but current circumstances probably make a date with the Stars slightly less appealing.
For as good as Vegas has been of late, Dallas stands as the league’s hottest team (from ‘As playoffs near, Stars are showing they’re the NHL’s most complete team,’ The Athletic, 04/04/24). The Stars have won eight straight and a whopping 13 of their past 15, most recently dismantling the Edmonton Oilers on Wednesday night. A balanced offensive attack featuring seven 20-goal scorers has the club tied for first league-wide in goals. Meanwhile, their deep, Miro Heiskanen-led blue line has surrendered just one goal more in one more game than the Golden Knights’ vaunted defense has.
There’s no good time to play a 105-point team that’s right in the thick of the Presidents’ Trophy race, but now is really not the time to play the Stars. Vegas has had the good fortune of going 3-0 against Dallas this season, but each of those wins came within the season’s first 30 games. Now, the Central leaders look like a team with few weaknesses backstopped by Jake Oettinger, a talented goaltender who looks to be finding his form after an uneven season to date.
3) Colorado Avalanche
After touting the roster-wide depth and balance of the Stars, it’s only fair to acknowledge that coming up against Colorado’s two-headed superstar tandem of league-leading scorer Nathan MacKinnon and perennial Norris Trophy candidate Cale Makar wouldn’t be fun, either.
The difference in preference when it comes to facing the two clubs boils down to the net. Oettinger and Alexandar Georgiev have posted similar stats this season. However, while Oettinger seems to be rounding into form in Dallas, Georgiev’s struggles have led to criticism from Avalanche head coach Jared Bednar and prompted questions about his grip on the No. 1 goaltender job (from ‘Justus Annunen keeps impressing, but Jared Bednar squashes idea of an Avalanche goalie controversy,’ Denver Post, 03/31/24).
That’s not to say a battle between the last two Cup champions would be a cakewalk for the Golden Knights. Colorado has the talent to offset goaltending issues. However, Adin Hill demonstrated the importance of strong netminding on even the most talented of teams last spring. A shaky Georgiev or an untested Justus Annunen could stand as a glaring weakness for the Avalanche and their hopes to rebound from last season’s disappointing first-round loss to the Seattle Kraken.
2) Edmonton Oilers
Far and away the most likely showdown awaiting the Golden Knights, a tilt with the Oilers would certainly be a marquee series — albeit one that Vegas knows it can win. A physical second-round match-up with the Oilers last postseason resulted in a six-game Golden Knights win.
In that series, Vegas managed to get 22 pucks — or 3.67 per game — past Stuart Skinner. It will be Skinner back in net once again in this probable clash. Though the 25-year-old has earned 33 wins while roughly matching his numbers from a standout 2022-23 rookie campaign, the postseason promises to bring a new wave of doubt and questions about the homegrown player tasked with backstopping a hugely talented roster with Cup aspirations.
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Skinner aside, it’s tough to know which Oilers team will show up following what has been a dramatically uneven regular season. Edmonton was 2-9-1 and 5-12-1 at various times this season after a catastrophic start, but winning streaks of eight and 16 games quickly helped the team regroup. And who ultimately ended that second franchise-record win streak? That would be the Golden Knights, who may not have a Connor McDavid on their roster but can match the Oilers for talent and, when healthy, probably have fewer question marks in the lineup.
1) Vancouver Canucks
On Jan. 2, in their first game of 2024, the Vancouver Canucks doubled up the Ottawa Senators 6-3 to wrest the Pacific Division lead from Vegas. Riding a strong, season-long effort in front of first-year head coach Rick Tocchet, they haven’t looked back and appear poised to claim their first division crown since 2012-13, when they won what was known as the Northwest.
But even amidst a banner year for the Canucks, cracks are beginning to show. They are just 10-9-2 since mid-February, spending most of those games without starting netminder Thatcher Demko, who remains sidelined with an undisclosed injury. While Tocchet recently provided an encouraging update of an anticipated return before the end of the regular season, the 28-year-old will have precious little time to get accustomed to the crease before the playoffs begin.
Yet, Vancouver’s present issues extend further than just between the pipes. Their current stretch of mediocrity has included sub-par defensive play, tough losses against playoff-bound opponents (they’ve lost to Los Angeles, Dallas and Vegas in the last two weeks alone) and some hard criticism from Tocchet. In response to Tuesday’s 6-3 loss to the Golden Knights, the coach identified his team as being “a little light” and suggested that a handful of Canucks hadn’t shown up to play.
If you’re an optimistic Golden Knights fan, you can probably chart a playoff path through topping the Oilers and then Canucks before reaching a tough but winnable Western final over Colorado or Dallas. However, nothing is guaranteed, as we saw with Vegas’ playoff miss two seasons ago and the Avalanche’s upset loss to Seattle as defending champions. It’s fun to speculate on potential opponents when the second season gets underway, but Vegas will be best served focusing on themselves — starting with their last seven regular season games.
