There are just 14 games remaining in the 2023-24 NHL regular season for the Vegas Golden Knights, but no shortage of possible outcomes for how things will play out between now and April 18. A tight, exciting Western Conference playoff picture means that nothing is certain, and Vegas could finish anywhere from atop the Conference to out of the postseason entirely.
Given all the balls in the air, all of the Vancouver Canucks, Edmonton Oilers, Los Angeles Kings, Winnipeg Jets, Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars stand as viable, realistic opening round opponents for the Golden Knights. Home ice advantage is still within reach, but so is backsliding right out of not only the Pacific Division top-three but the competitive wild-card race as well.
The Golden Knights can only focus on their own play, particularly as they continue to work their way out of their recent slump. But with so many moving parts around them and so many looming possibilities, it’s worth sorting out what might still transpire in the coming weeks and how each scenario impacts their quest for a second-consecutive Stanley Cup.
Vegas Earns a Wild Card Spot
We’ll start with the scenario that sees the Golden Knights secure a Western Conference wild card spot, since that is where they currently reside in the standings. Amidst all the excitement over an aggressive trade deadline, the short-handed club has actually stumbled of late, going 5-10-1 in their last 16 games. Mark Stone’s lacerated spleen certainly hasn’t helped matters, nor has the continued absence of new addition Tomas Hertl. But those injuries don’t change the fact the Golden Knights have gone cold at a critical time in which most of their rivals are building momentum.
Should this continue, there will be ample cause for concern. After all, the organization didn’t go out and add Hertl, Noah Hanifin, and Anthony Mantha to lose in the first round. A strong finish might actually be more important for momentum-building purposes than for playoff positioning (unless they begin to approach the doomsday scenario, that is).
Momentum aside, a wild card finish wouldn’t necessarily be a disastrous outcome. Yes, it would almost guarantee ceding home ice advantage in any playoff series. However, in 10 playoff road games last spring, the Golden Knights went 7-3.
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Furthermore, there is no formidable threat atop the conference that Vegas is probably too concerned about avoiding in round one. The Central Division has produced a thrilling race, albeit without any of the Jets, Avalanche or Stars setting themselves apart as divisional giants. In the Pacific, the Canucks have reigned for much of the year, but suddenly face questions amidst a small slump of their own (they are 6-5-2 in their last 13 games) and the continued absence of starting goalie Thatcher Demko (lower-body injury).
Vegas Finishes Third in the Pacific
In this scenario, the Golden Knights still don’t earn home-ice advantage, but at least they would slightly improve their current standing. With the Kings sitting four points ahead for that number-three spot, this outcome certainly isn’t far from reality, but it would help the club chart a different path forward.
Assuming it is Los Angeles that Vegas does overtake, they would be on the road to visit Edmonton to kick off the postseason. This 2023 Western Conference semifinal rematch would almost certainly be the opening round’s marquee series, pitting two star-studded rosters who engaged in a tight six-game affair last spring.
The biggest concern for the Golden Knights in a potential Oilers series (well, apart from Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl) is that aforementioned momentum issue. Since the start of 2024, Vegas has sported a middling 14-15-2 mark. In contrast, Edmonton came out of a deep early hole thanks to a torrid 23-6-3 record this calendar year. In the unlikely event that the Golden Knights snag a divisional playoff spot and meet another team, matchups against Vancouver or Los Angeles seem considerably more manageable.
Vegas Misses the Playoffs
Unlikely? Absolutely. Unthinkable? Not so fast.
Don’t look now, but the Golden Knights are currently just three points clear of the Minnesota Wild for the second and final wild card spot. Being passed by the Wild (or the lurking St. Louis Blues) would lead to the club missing out on the postseason for the second time in three seasons and would be shocking downturn for a franchise that loaded up at the trade deadline in pursuit of a second-consecutive Stanley Cup.
On the injury front, the Golden Knights can’t expect much relief. Stone is already confirmed to be out for the remainder of the regular season, while Hertl is expected to return before playoff time, but likely not in time to properly get back into full game shape and gel on the ice with his new teammates. While the club recently demonstrated a sense of urgency by rallying back from a four-game skid with three wins in four games, their 5-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning served to shed light on what has been a shaky stretch of netminding from Adin Hill and a concerning trend of allowing third-period goals.
That being said, Vegas remains in control of their own fate. They have remaining games against both the Wild and the Blues and also wrap up the season with four straight home games at T-Mobile Arena. Even as hopes remain for both a loftier playoff position and, yes, another trip to the Stanley Cup Final, it’s important to recognize that even a postseason berth is not guaranteed at this point and there remains work to be done.
Although three scenarios were outlined here (catching the Canucks for a third Pacific Division title remains mathematically possible but highly unlikely), there are really just two that matter to Golden Knights fans: playoffs or no playoffs. Obviously, no one wants to think about a playoff miss for an organization without two of its next three first-rounders or a strong prospect pool. On a positive note, however, a postseason-tested Vegas team doesn’t need to be intimidated by any opening round opponent at home or on the road. Just get in, and the rest will sort itself out.
