It may be game 81 on the schedule, but when the Tampa Bay Lightning play their last regular-season game against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Tuesday, it will feel like the 2023 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs have begun. The two teams will meet in the first round for the second consecutive year. A win on Tuesday would be a bold statement by the Bolts.
The game won’t affect the Lightning’s playoff positioning. They have known for weeks, if not months, that they would be facing the Maple Leafs in a much-anticipated rematch, after last season’s seven-game series victory.
The Lightning’s Inconsistent Season
If the Lightning win their last two games, they will secure a 100-point season for the seventh time in franchise history, which have all been under head coach Jon Cooper. He knows his players well and has witnessed their inconsistent play this season.
After they lost 7 to 4 to the Ottawa Senators on April 8, Cooper pointed out that they had given up 19 goals in three games, and only one goal in the three previous games. In his postgame news conference, he said the team was “playing like the season ended when we clinched a playoff spot. Like there was no season left.”
When the Lightning are at the top of their game, they are unstoppable. They dominated on home ice this season, winning 12 consecutive home games from Dec. 8 to Feb 7, and have a 27-7-5 regular-season record at Amalie Arena. Even though they have played well and have had two five-game winning streaks during the regular season, they also suffered through a five-game losing streak in late February. They are currently winless in their last three games.
Lightning’s Hyped Playoff Success
Bold predictions at the beginning of the season were a harbinger of their play to come —inconsistent. CBS Sports predicted that Tampa Bay would be eliminated in the first round of the 2023 Playoffs. On the other hand, Adam Kimelman, the NHL.com’s deputy managing editor, predicted that the Lightning would win the Cup. It’s been that kind of season.
Still, I doubt many teams will want to face the Lightning in the postseason. Their march to the 2022 Stanley Cup Final, defeating three hugely talented teams in the Maple Leafs, Florida Panthers, and New York Rangers, made a statement that the Bolts could continue competing for the Cup for the foreseeable future.
However, the reality is that the Lightning are the third-oldest team in the league and have lost significant players since their consecutive championships. They took the Colorado Avalanche to six games in the 2022 Cup Final but were the slower team. However, with age comes experience, and in the NHL, postseason experience is everything.
Lightning Vs. Maple Leafs
The Lightning have a 45-51-2-8 all-time record versus the Maple Leafs and they split their regular-season games this season, each team winning at home. If they want to make a statement ahead of the playoffs, they will need a full team effort.
Related: Can the Lightning Survive a Vasilevskiy Injury in 2022-23?
The Lightning have had inconsistent goaltending all season. Back-up goalie Brian Elliott has started 21 games in relief of Andrei Vasilevskiy. Elliott won seven of his first eight games, including wins against the New York Islanders and Dallas Stars. However, since then, he hasn’t won against a playoff-bound team and has lost his last three, giving up 18 goals for a 3.56 goals-against average (GAA).
Vasilevskiy’s numbers are only slightly off his career average, with a GAA of 2.63 and a .916 save percentage (SV%), he has also contributed to the team’s inconsistent performance. If he starts against the Maple Leafs, he will face their high-flying offense for the third time this season; Auston Matthews is on the verge of reaching 40 goals with 39, and William Nylander has 38. Also, Mitch Marner, who is sitting at 98 points, should reach 100 within their last three games.
The Lightning will be facing a much different opponent than earlier in the season, as the Maple Leafs were busy signing Noel Acciari and Ryan O’Reilly at the deadline. They also shored up their blue line with defensemen Jake McCabe and Erik Gustafsson and added two goalies in the offseason. Ilya Samsonov, who was a first-round draft pick by the Washington Capitals, has played 41 games with a .917 SV% and a 2.36 GAA. Backing him up is Matt Murray, who is listed as day-to-day in a rough season plagued by injuries and poor performance. The team may need to rely on Joseph Woll, who is 4-1 after being recalled from their American Hockey League’s Toronto Marlies.
Can the Bolts Beat the Maple Leafs, Again?
Both teams know that anything can happen in the playoffs. Last postseason, after playing an unprecedented 71 playoff games in three seasons, Tampa Bay still had a chance to three-peat.
But the additions that Maple Leafs general manager (GM) Kyle Dubas made at the trade tradeline were to secure, at the very least, a round one series win. The fact that it took seven games for the Lightning to defeat the Maple Leafs during the 2022 Playoffs means there’s no guaranteed win.
So, like most games, the outcome of Tuesday’s contest could come down to goaltending. If Vasilevskiy is in net, the Lightning have a good chance to win. If they do, it will be a statement that should reverberate across the league in time for the playoffs.
