Last summer, the Tampa Bay Lightning made a splash to improve the middle-six forward group in free agency. General manager Julien BriseBois signed veteran forward Conor Sheary to a three-year deal with an annual average of $2 million. Playing with stars like Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin throughout his career, Sheary seemed like a good fit for Tampa Bay’s forward group. Unfortunately, things didn’t go as anticipated in his first season with the Lightning.
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Sheary played in just 57 contests during the 2023-24 season, recording a career-low in goals with four and 11 assists for 15 points. He did not find himself in a consistent middle-six role, spending most of his minutes on the fourth line. In limited opportunity with top players, Sheary had a couple of productive games. With his injuries and lackluster performance, fans anxiously begged BriseBois to dump the forward’s contract elsewhere. However, with the arrival of a former teammate to change the dynamic of the Lightning offense at even strength, Sheary has the potential to bounce back in 2024-25.
Former Teammate Guentzel Can Rejuvenate Sheary
The Lightning acquired one of Sheary’s old linemates from the Pittsburgh Penguins in Jake Guentzel. With the All-Star on his line, Sheary played some of the best hockey of his NHL career. One may be quick to point out that Crosby centered the two inexperienced wingers at the time and claim their production won’t repeat in a new system. However, Natural Stat Trick’s line tool shows otherwise.
Let’s rewind to the Penguin’s glory days and look at the 2016-17 and 2017-18 seasons. While there’s no doubt Crosby elevated Sheary to heights he can’t reach driving his own line, the 5-foot-nine forward was a respectable player without the captain on his line. In roughly 605 minutes of ice time at five on five over that two-season window without Crosby, Sheary outscored his opponents 33 to 29. Moreover, he controlled 51.21% of the on-ice expected goal share (xGF%) at five on five. Lastly, the Penguins scored 57.14% of the high-danger goals (HDGF%) when Sheary was without Crosby.
In summary, Sheary was a solid player without Crosby on his line. Now, how does Guentzel factor into all of this? Statistics show that Sheary and Guentzel were successful without Crosby on their line during that time frame. While the sample size is just under 100 minutes at five on five, Guentzel and Sheary outscored their opponents six to two without Crosby. Furthermore, had a 53.54% xGF% and 55.17% of the scoring chances (SCF%) in those minutes. In short, Sheary and Guentzel can drive play and possess the puck. With the opportunity together in Tampa Bay with a head coach like Jon Cooper, there’s no reason they can’t replicate this solid five-on-five playf.
Sheary’s Unlucky 2023-24 Campaign
Not only did Sheary score a career-worst four goals last season, but he also shot at the lowest shooting percentage (8.00%) at all strengths. On top of individual scoring struggles, he was on the ice for the lowest percent-driven outcomes of his career since his rookie season in 2015-16. Percent-driven outcomes is calculated by adding a team’s on-ice shooting and save percentage together. This statistic is prominent in fantasy hockey and is an evaluation of the “luck” factor in hockey.
In addition, the forward recorded the worst play-driving metrics of his career. Sheary posted his lowest results in goals-for percentage, xGF%, and high-danger Corsi for percentage across his 10-year NHL career. Now that he has hit rock bottom in Tampa Bay, the only way is up for Sheary next season.
What to Expect From Sheary Next Season
The numbers don’t lie. Sheary had the most unlucky season of his NHL career and he dealt with injuries. With Guentzel in town, a Sheary bounce back is not out of the question. After all, the speedy forward only makes an annual average of $2 million. If Cooper maximizes his deployment, his contract can be cost-effective for both sides. Even if he doesn’t get an opportunity to play with Guentzel, we can’t imagine a scenario where things go worse for Sheary next season.
