Connor McDavid’s recent two-year, $12.5 million extension with the Edmonton Oilers has reshaped the strategy many teams will deploy over the next three seasons. Hoping to get a crack at the best player in the league this summer, that option is off the table with McDavid’s new deal. That said, it’s a short-term extension that will have teams thinking about 2028.
While franchises like Toronto, New York, Dallas, and Los Angeles were poised to go “all in” if McDavid tested free agency this offseason, his short-term commitment to Edmonton kicks that can down the road a few years. However, for teams that want to take a swing, like the Maple Leafs, they need to start planning right away.
Why Do Teams Need to Pivot Immediately?
It sounds odd that teams would start altering their rosters in the hopes that a superstar might or might not hit the market in three seasons’ time. There is no guarantee McDavid won’t sign again in Edmonton, next time earning back all the big money he left on the table with this most recent extension. Still, teams that are willing to risk everything for a chance to take a shot at the ultimate free agency prize need to think ahead.
According to Pierre LeBrun, the Los Angeles Kings, Toronto Maple Leafs, New York Rangers, and Dallas Stars were all closely tracking McDavid’s potential contract situation. Now that he’s off the market, if they want in during the summer of 2028, they should expect to pay a premium salary, likely around 20% of a team’s cap, which could mean allocating $25 million or more per season to the Oilers’ current captain.
What Does That Mean for the Maple Leafs?
For teams like the Maple Leafs, this means re-aligning their roster, many of whom will be aging out when McDavid looks around the league to make his decision. If he chooses not to stay in Edmonton, it will be for two reasons: they didn’t win a Stanley Cup, and they’re aging.
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McDavid won’t sign a long-term deal with a team that has an aging core. Toronto is in that category. Auston Matthews will be 31, William Nylander will be 32, and Morgan Rielly will be 34. The rest of the current blue line core will be 35 or older, and many of Toronto’s key pieces will be on their last legs.
This will mean shifting focus to players like Matthew Knies, developing Easton Cowan, and making sure players like Matias Maccelli produce. Middle-aged players will need to go out for younger versions, and Toronto will need to find a way to do all of this while keeping a huge chunk of their salary cap free to sign what will be the most expensive contract in NHL history.
This isn’t something Treliving and the Maple Leafs can do in one year. They’ll need to start planning immediately, while also ensuring their team remains competitive enough to be attractive to McDavid as a potential contender. He won’t just be looking at the age of the roster, but he’ll want to join a team that has come closer than the Leafs have.
Timing will be critical: McDavid is likely to prioritize teams with a mix of youth, championship potential, and financial flexibility. If Toronto doesn’t meet all three criteria, it won’t matter that he’s from the area. The continuous calls that McDavid will “want to come home” will mean nothing.
If there’s one thing McDavid showed with this new deal, it’s that he’s loyal to his teammates and he’s smart enough to understand the landscape of the NHL and how his deal impacts wherever he plays. He knows he can’t get there on his own. A team like the Leafs would have to show they have the pieces he needs and are smart enough to start planning well ahead of when it’s time to make their pitch.
And, if the Leafs never get a chance to make that pitch because McDavid doesn’t become available… so be it.
