We’re about an eighth of the way through the NHL regular season, with the Toronto Maple Leafs having played 10 games this far. They boast a 5-4-1 record — a .550 point percentage — and sit in third place in a tough Atlantic Division. Let’s take a look at some takeaways from the beginning of their season:
1. Stolarz Should Be the 1A
After presumed starter Joseph Woll was put on the shelf for the beginning of the season due to injury, 1B goaltender and new acquisition Anthony Stolarz was given the opportunity to shine in a starter role. Woll has since returned, but the argument still stands that Stolarz should be given the bulk of the starts moving forward. Besides the fact that Woll looked abysmal in his one start this season — he allowed four goals on 26 shots and boasted a goals saved above expected (GSAx) of negative-2.00 — Stolarz has provided sturdy, Vezina-calibre play thus far that should speak for itself in terms of who should get the starts.
Related: Maple Leafs Have Productive 2nd Line With Nylander, Pacioretty and Tavares
Sure, his last two games haven’t been up to par with what he showed at the very beginning of the season, having given up eight goals on 57 shots, but his save percentage (SV%) still sits at a sublime .916 and his goals against average (GAA) remains at a more-than-sturdy 2.45. His last two starts drastically decreased those statistics and he still ranks among the league’s best in each. On top of that, he’s a top-15 goalie in terms of GSAx despite having posted negative-2.41 over his last two starts. Simply put, Stolarz has played well enough at the beginning of the season to warrant giving him the lion’s share of starts until he proves too unreliable or Woll proves to be worthy of garnering as many or more starts.
2. Stars’ Slow Starts Not a Concern
“Slow starts” is admittedly a bit of an overreaction here, but the point stands that the Maple Leafs’ star players have not performed to expectations from a point-production standpoint quite yet. Auston Matthews, who neared in on 70 goals last season, has scored just four times thus far and is sitting at a below-point-per-game pace. Mitch Marner and William Nylander are both floating at or above the point-per-game mark, but considering the two have come one and two points shy of triple digits respectively, there needs to be a bit more there, too. Perhaps the only one of the “Core Four” who is performing at or above expectations is John Tavares, who has nine points in nine games and scored a hat trick in last night’s (Oct. 28) matchup against the Winnipeg Jets. On the defensive front, Morgan Rielly has been subpar in this metric as well with five points in 10 games considering he’s surpassed the 68-point mark twice and has played at an above-half-point-per-game level in every season dating back to 2017-18.
Considering the group’s underlying statistics, the points and goals are surely going to come. Each of the “Core Four” have an expected goals share (xGF%) of 53% or higher, meaning that the Maple Leafs are controlling over 53% of the expected goals (xG) when any one of them is on the ice. Almost always, higher xG shares are an indication of a player tilting the ice in their favor, and keeping in mind the offensive skillsets of these four players, it’s almost a sure shot that this lopsided play will earn them more points moving forward. Rielly’s xGF% of 54.38% is equally as reassuring.
For Matthews, the goals and points are as sure a bet as anything. As it currently stands among forwards with at least 100 minutes of five-on-five play, he has the seventh-best expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) in the NHL, illustrating that the Maple Leafs are generating a ton of offense while he’s on the ice. He ranks fifth in shot attempts per 60 minutes (CF/60), second in scoring chances per 60 minutes (SCF/60), and sixth in high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (HDCF/60) as well. On an individual level, nobody in the league is generating as many individual expected goals per 60 minutes (ixG/60) as he is. The underlying statistics are certainly there, and the points will come in time as a byproduct of his MVP-level play.
Marner is in a similar situation, with his xGF/60 ranking 10th in the NHL among forwards. He ranks 11th in CF/60 and is a top-10 forward in terms of SCF/60 and HDCF/60, all of which are unsurprising considering he is Matthews’ linemate. For him, despite being the only Maple Leaf with more points than games played, he too should see an uptick in production. Tavares and Nylander are quite a bit lower on these lists, but their underlying statistics are still strong and they too should either maintain their current level of play or elevate it a bit. Rielly is in the top 35 in terms of xGF/60 among defensemen, though he is behind recently-extended teammate Jake McCabe by 11 spots. Should he continue to see a good amount of time alongside the Core Four, though, his point production will rebound to what fans have become accustomed to by proxy of those players underperforming what their underlying metrics show.
3. Maple Leafs Need to Be Better Early and Late
The Maple Leafs are a high-octane team capable of scoring on a whim at any point during the game, especially considering their superstar power. Still, they have struggled for much of the beginnings and endings of games. Their comfort has seemingly been the second period, where they have outscored opponents 16-10. In the first and third periods, though, they have been outscored to the tune of 10-9 and 11-7, respectively. They are 0-1 in overtime games.
The Maple Leafs seemingly have no issues with keeping leads safe, with a 4-0-1 record when scoring first and a 5-0-0 record when leading after two periods, but it is concerning that they’ve only been able to do so in half of their games so far. They have had more of a struggle catching up to teams, with just one comeback win all season and zero after trailing after two periods. To be serious contenders, they’ll need to figure out both how to play from behind and how to get the first puck in the back of the net.
4. The Bottom Six Needs a Revamp
It’s been a rightful narrative for a few seasons now, but the fourth line simply has not been cutting it. Whereas the third line used to be an issue as well, the Maple Leafs have been getting production out of some of their third liners — Max Domi has six assists and Bobby McMann has provided four points including three goals thus far. Even David Kampf, who has largely been one of the Maple Leafs’ worst forwards over the last few seasons, has strong underlying statistics despite an unimpressive stat line. Steven Lorentz, who has become a fan favorite because of his publicly-shared childhood dream of playing for the Maple Leafs having come true, has also been an excellent addition to the bottom six despite the lackluster scoring.
The real issue lies in Ryan Reaves and Pontus Holmberg, both of whom have no business being in an NHL lineup with their current level of play. As far as Reaves goes, he’s been a thorn in the side of anyone who follows the NHL and prioritizes skill and talent over grit and unnecessary physicality. Sure, he can throw a punch every now and then and perhaps that energizes the team, but he certainly should not be playing on a nightly basis considering he can’t do much else. Holmberg has, simply put, been the worst player on the team through 10 games and needs to take some games to get his head straight and performance bettered. Nicholas Robertson, who has admittedly struggled point-wise, should be playing on the third line over him. Once Connor Dewar returns from injury, both Reaves and Holmberg should be out of the lineup indefinitely.
5. New Defense Corps Working Out Wonderfully
This past off-season, general manager Brad Treliving put a distinct focus on upgrading the defense corps. He added a second puck-moving defenceman in Oliver Ekman-Larsson and one of the best defensive defencemen in the league (who, I might add, has underrated puck-moving ability himself) in Chris Tanev. Both newcomers to the lineup have been excellent additions, with the latter of the two playing some of the strongest hockey of his long career.
Ekman-Larsson, who was signed to a four-year contract with a $3.5 million average annual value (AAV) on the first day of free agency, has provided a sturdy top-four puck-moving presence alongside Rielly. In fact, Ekman-Larsson paces the defense corps in points with six in the first 10 games and has earned a promotion to the top pairing as a byproduct of his excellent play. While his underlying statistics relative to the rest of the defense group are somewhat weak, he’s still been performing admirably and holds an xGF% of 51.38%, so it’s not like he’s been a net negative in any way despite placing fifth on the team among defencemen in the metric.
Tanev, on the other hand, has outright been the team’s best defenceman. At 35 years of age, there were some (rightful) concerns about his six-year, $4.5 million AAV contract when it was signed in July, but he has quelled those reservations and then some, at least for the time being. As it stands, he ranks first on the team with a 59.79% xGF%. That mark puts Tanev at fifth in the entire NHL among defencemen with at least 150 minutes of 5v5 hockey. Whereas his xGF/60 isn’t necessarily the best, with four Maple Leafs defencemen surpassing him in that mark, just about nobody in the league is producing better defensive numbers — his xGA/60 ranks seventh in the league. Simply put, he’s been worth his weight in gold.
Maple Leafs’ Underlying Statistics Bode Well for Remaining Games
Despite a record of barely above .500, the Maple Leafs have many encouraging signs to point to for the rest of the season. As a team, they rank in the top 10 in xGF% and in the top five in SCF/60 and HDCF/60. They finally have a sturdy netminder (or two, if Woll gets back to what he has shown in his young career) to lean on and have players in their system to make a fully balanced, threatening lineup that can score from all four lines and all three defense pairings. The underperforming superstars are likely to bounce back in regards to their production, and that should fuel the rest of the lineup to get going as well. Look for Toronto to become a juggernaut team showing their capabilities to compete for the Stanley Cup sooner than later.
