While the NHL offseason has brought some excitement as of late, New York Islanders fans have been left in the dust since an exciting July 1st. As a result, all attention has gone to the team’s few free-agency signings. With the most significant addition being Anthony Duclair, general manager Lou Lamoriello is putting a lot of trust in the current group. As a result, the face of the Islanders franchise, Mat Barzal, will once again be heavily relied upon to carry the offense this season, potentially paving the way for a breakout, 100-point campaign.
Duclair’s Impact on Barzal
The Islanders’ addition of Duclair is not going to be the difference between a Round 1 exit and Stanley Cup victory, but it will undoubtedly strengthen the Islanders’ top six. Duclair’s spot in the lineup is unknown, but assuming replaces Anders Lee on the first line alongside Barzal and Bo Horvat, his speed will have a massive impact.
Duclair’s speed is obvious to anyone who watches him play, but NHL Edge shows just how elusive he is. Duclair’s top skating speed ranks in the 93rd percentile and speed bursts over 20 MPH ranks in the 89th percentile. For comparison, Barzal’s top speed is in the 96th percentile and bursts over 20 MPH in the 98th percentile & Lee’s top speed was below the 50th percentile and speed bursts over 20 MPH in the 71st percentile. While Lee was overly criticized for his struggles last season, having Duclair take his spot will undoubtedly generate more offense through odd-man rushes.
While the first line will benefit from Duclair’s speed, the difference in physical presence compared to Lee, who had 176 hits last season to Duclair’s 49, might raise concerns. However, this shouldn’t be a concern. According to NHL Edge, Duclair had 14 goals on 59 high-danger shots last season. Lee had 15 goals on 115 shots and 21 goals on 134 high-danger shots the season prior. While Duclair is not going to be a consistent net-front presence for Barzal, the stats prove he can play that role if needed, filling Lee’s role while providing additional offense through speed.
Duclair’s similarities to Lee prove his production’s floor is comparable to Lee’s with a much higher ceiling. The addition of Duclair to Barzal’s line should generate five to eight additional goals from the Islanders’ top line at the very least, with the upside of 15-20, paving the way for Barzal to build on his point-per-game performance last season.
Islanders Top Line Was Already Good
With the Islanders adding Duclair to the top line, Lamoriello is making an already strong line, even better. Last season, the Lee-Horvat-Barzal line finished with the third-highest expected goal percentage per 60 minutes (xG/60) in the NHL (min. 400 minutes) with 3.48, according to MoneyPuck. The leading line in this category was the Edmonton Oilers combination of Zach Hyman-Connor McDavid-Ryan Nugent-Hopkins with 4.42 xG/60. The second leading line in this category was the Colorado Avalanche’s combination of Jonathan Drouin-Nathan MacKinnon-Mikko Rantanen with 3.55 xG/60.
While the Islanders’ top line was one of the most productive lines in the league last season, the advanced metrics prove there is more left to be unleashed. Hyman scored 54 goals and McDavid scored 132 points for Edmonton while MacKinnon and Rantanen each scored above 100-points, proving there is a correlation between these advanced metrics and strong production. While Barzal is not near McDavid nor MacKinnon’s levels, at least not yet, he is clearly doing something right, paving the way for him to join the premier tier of NHL forwards with a breakout season.
Horvat’s Second Full Season on Long Island
The main reason the Islanders’ top line saw such impressive production last season was due to the addition of Horvat. Originally acquired at the 2023 Trade Deadline, the 2023-24 season was Horvat’s first full season with the Islanders. This was also his first genuine opportunity to play alongside Barzal since Barzal suffered a season-ending injury shortly after Horvat was acquired. Adding a scoring threat like Horvat to Barzal’s line was an obvious move to boost offensive production, but the two have gelled effortlessly, enabling Barzal to fully showcase his well-rounded offensive abilities.
Last season, Barzal set a career-high in goals (23), expected goals (20.1), primary assists (38), share of possible ice time (33.1%), penalty minute differential (50 more minutes drawn than taken), takeaways (84), shot attempts (413), shots on goal (240), high danger unblocked shot attempts (23), high danger expected goals (7.08), rebounds created (18), and expected rebounds created (15.7). As well, he had just 19 secondary assists and a 9.3 shooting percentage, the second-lowest single-season performance of his career. A lot of stats were just listed, and it is easy to pick and choose what to mention, but the scoresheet overwhelmingly proves Barzal’s career year is sustainable.
2024-25 is a New Season
While Barzal had a great 2023-24 campaign, the Islanders did not, even with their playoff appearance. Head coach Lane Lambert was fired midseason and the defense core got decimated with injuries. Now entering Patrick Roy’s first full season as head coach with a healthy defense, Barzal will be one of the greatest beneficiaries.
One of the glaring issues the Islanders suffered under Lambert was the lackluster overtime performance. His decision to not start Barzal and Horvat to begin overtime was laughable, and the team’s record shows it. In 45 games last season, the Islanders lost 11 games in overtime with Lambert at the helm. Had Barzal and Horvat opened the sudden death period, the 11 losses could have been as low as three or four, adding a few additional points to Barzal’s scoresheet.
While the defense returning to health will not directly impact Barzal, it will create a ripple effect. With Scott Mayfield, Adam Pelech, and Ryan Pulock returning to the ice fully healed, Noah Dobson will no longer have to pick up extra shifts, specifically on the penalty kill. By the final stretch of last season, Dobson was clearly fatigued at no fault of his own. He worked more than any other player on the team due to the defensive injuries, so his regression was understandable.
Now well-rested and poised to build on last season’s success, Dobson will have fresh legs, paving the way for an even more dominant offensive season. It’s difficult to quantify the connection between a defenseman and a forward, but the eye test shows that Dobson’s skating is a valuable asset when Barzal is on the ice. The two pass-first playmakers, both with underrated shots, clearly have strong chemistry, particularly on the power play.
Putting Duclair’s addition to the Islanders’ already elite top line, a full season under Roy, and a well-rested defense together, there is no reason to believe Barzal will do anything but increase his production this season. He is one of the most talented forwards in the NHL, so while a 100-point campaign is an ambitious goal, it is not out of the question.
