In what was supposed to be the easiest stretch of the season for the Edmonton Oilers over the past couple of weeks has seen them fall a little flat and start playing down to their weaker opponents. This trend needs to stop as the Oilers will play most of their games against weaker teams, and they are battling for a playoff spot.
Edmonton has not shown a 60-minute effort since (arguably) before the All-Star break. They have lost games to the Columbus Blue Jackets, Philadelphia Flyers, and Montreal Canadiens, recently earning two out of a possible six points. That cannot happen, especially since those are three of the most banged-up teams in the NHL. Though the Oilers just had their 11-game point streak snapped, it probably should’ve ended sooner, given their effort. What has kept them in games is pure skill and bursts of offence.
Of the team’s final 28 games, eight are against bottom-five teams, and 10 are against bottom-10 teams. They also have some tough competition down the stretch, so most, or all of these games are must-wins.
How the Oilers Have Fared Against Weaker Competition
Against bottom-five teams, the Oilers have done a lot of damage, with a 6-1-1 record. Those teams include the San Jose Sharks, Arizona Coyotes, Anaheim Ducks, Chicago Blackhawks, and Columbus Blue Jackets. So, seeing how the Oilers have played just half of their games against these opponents so far, they should have great results for the remainder of the season. They have scored 44 goals for an average of 5.5 goals per game. They have also scored six or more goals in half of those games.
However, defensively, they haven’t shut these bottom feeders down as they should. Two games were one-goal wins, while the Oilers allowed 24 goals against or three goals against per game. These teams rank 21st, 28th, 30th, 31st, and 32nd in goals per game this season, and all of them except the Sharks (3.02 GF/GP) have 2.67 GF/GP or fewer.
Including those five teams, the Oilers have also played 18 games against bottom-10 teams. Their record is 11-4-3 against the bottom-10 opponents this season, meaning they have gone just 5-3-2 against teams ranked between 23rd and 27th in the league. The only team above .500 is the Ottawa Senators, who are on a 6-1-0 run.
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The goals for and against have also drastically changed now that we include the Senators, Flyers, St. Louis Blues, Canadiens, and Vancouver Canucks. The Oilers have scored 75 goals in the 18 games for a GF/GP of 4.17. They have also allowed 55 goals against for a GA/GP of 3.06. Here their scoring has dropped off significantly, and they are giving up around three goals per game. Four of the seven games were one-goal losses, although the Canadiens dominated them.
How This Will Impact the Rest of the Oilers’ Season
The Oilers are fortunate to be playing teams that rank between 23rd and 27th in the NHL two more times for the rest of the season since they haven’t fared well. They have struggled or played down to those opponents more often than not, although they have rightfully out-skilled the bottom-five teams.
The Oilers play the Senators and Flyers once more each, both teams in that 23-27 group and both of whom the Oilers have matched up against in the past three games. As for the bottom-five teams, the Oilers have a 3-1-1 record against the four teams they must face a combined eight times before the end of the season. Almost all of these games are after the trade deadline when most of these teams will lose players and become weaker.
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If the Oilers want to be a top team in the NHL and stop worrying about making the playoffs, they must take advantage of games against weak competition. This is what separates them from being among the Boston Bruins, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Carolina Hurricanes, top teams that don’t struggle against bottom-feeders, getting easy points when they can. They also, for the most part, get better playoff matchups.
The Oilers would have already been atop their division and might have a cushion if they could take advantage of being the favourite. If they are playing poorly against bad teams, that level of play could seep into their high-stakes games and cost them more. It is integral to finish strong and change the narrative that has started in recent weeks.
