Evan Bouchard is the last member of the Edmonton Oilers without a contract for this season yet, but it should be coming soon. Bob Stauffer recently spoke about the contracts of the two young Oilers, Bouchard and Ryan McLeod, on Oilers Now, saying, “I think they’re close on Bouchard. Within $100k is my guess.” Seeing as Stauffer also mentioned McLeod would have a contract by Friday, his information seems to be nearly spot on.
The contract the Oilers and Bouchard settle on will determine one of three ways the Oilers will be going into the season. The first and most ideal way is that he gets a $3.5 million average annual value (AAV) or less on his next contract so that the Oilers can run a 22-man roster with Raphael Lavoie in the NHL (without the risk of losing him on waivers).
The second way is Bouchard accepts a deal at $3.6 million AAV so that the Oilers can run a 22-man roster with a league-minimum 13th forward on the roster. The least ideal option is if Bouchard gets a deal done somewhere north of $3.6 million AAV and less than $4.3 million AAV. This would only allow the Oilers to run a 21-man roster.
There are potential pros and cons to all three. If Bouchard gets more money, causing the Oilers to only have 21 players on the roster, it might allow the organization to squeeze an extra year out of him (up to three years) and have that one extra year with a lot of extra cap space before they have to sign him to a big ticket. The downsides are that the Oilers won’t have an extra forward on the roster, but one might serve as an extra if the Oilers dress with 11 forwards and seven defence some nights.
The last time the Oilers waited too long to sign their young defenceman to a big contract, it ended up costing them $9.25 million AAV for eight years with Darnell Nurse. He doesn’t deserve blame, but since the Oilers bridged him twice for a total of four years, he was entering his prime by that time. That could realistically happen to Bouchard, as we’re already seeing signs.
The downside to signing Bouchard to a contract worth a $3.5 million or $3.6 million AAV is that it will be one to two years max. That means the Oilers will still have one more year of Mattias Ekholm at a $6 million AAV, eating up a fair bit of cap space, money the team can’t put toward Bouchard. Now the upside is that the Oilers can carry an extra forward, and even Lavoie, who they would not be happy to see picked up off waivers after a very strong 2022-23 American Hockey League (AHL) season and a weaker prospect pool as is. More money would also mean a little more wiggle room at the trade deadline. That will be an interesting time when we get there with little to no cap space.
Who Bouchard Is Getting Compared To
When it comes to new contracts, both the team and the player look around the league and find comparable deals in their favour. That is most definitely what is getting done with the Oilers and Bouchard, and there are a few recent signings that are very tough not to look at and see the Oilers’ defenceman getting a similar deal.
Related: 3 Lesser-Known Oilers Prospects on the Rise
There are four young defencemen quickly on the rise that are comparable to Bouchard — Noah Dobson, K’Andre Miller, Bowen Byram, and Vince Dunn. While each situation is a bit different, we’ll use each one of them. Let’s take a look.
Dobson, also drafted in 2018 right after Bouchard, signed a three-year, $4 million AAV deal right out of his entry-level deal. Dobson is a year ahead of Bouchard, as his entry-level contract only slid one year, not two. The New York Islanders aren’t paying any defenceman a large sum of money, so a $4 million AAV for Dobson was nothing for a young player who also plays on the power play, similar to Bouchard.
Miller, Byram, and Dunn more recently signed their bridge deals. While Dunn got four years at a higher AAV since he’s considered the Seattle Kraken’s number one defenceman and power-play quarterback, he got more. If the Oilers had a bit more money now or Bouchard shows he’s going to keep getting better, a $7 million AAV is potentially what we’ll see from his next contract after the one getting negotiated now.
Miller and Byram are solid players to compare, even though they play different styles. Neither are top pairing defencemen, and they are both young, getting two-year bridge deals. Two years is what is expected for Bouchard, so it is very likely his number will fall into the $3.6 million-plus AAV to $4.3 million AAV, and the Oilers will only be able to run with a 21-man roster.
The hope is that Bouchard is close to signing a deal that is fair but helps out both sides. He is in the perfect spot to succeed in the next couple of years, so there could be a way where he takes a bit of a team-friendly deal right now to help the Oilers and then cashes in later when he proves himself without a doubt. It shouldn’t be a long wait now until we see a deal get done.
