The Edmonton Oilers are looking to make a few changes to the roster this offseason, but one of them seems to be the inevitable departure of Kailer Yamamoto. It appears as though nobody is biting on a trade for him as Ken Holland looks to try to move out the $3.1 million annual average value at this point. Unfortunately, his value is much lower than other comparable players that have been moved recently.
One of the most recent examples is the New Jersey Devils getting Tyler Toffoli from the Calgary Flames in exchange for Yegor Sharangovich and a third-round pick. While Toffoli was surely on the Oilers’ radar and would have been a nice one-year fit for them in the top-six with his goal-scoring ability, they now won’t have the opportunity to capitalize and acquire the former Flame.
I bring up the Toffoli trade for multiple reasons. The first is that he was a player that could have fit in nicely on the right wing in the Oilers’ top six, where they have had lots of inconsistency. Jesse Puljujarvi was tried in that spot and failed, followed by Yamamoto for the majority of this season. This is part of the reason why his value dropped so significantly in such a short period of time.
Yamamoto Being Valued Different Than Others
Let’s first talk about why Yamamoto’s value has dropped. He is a former first-round pick that has now played three seasons and change in the NHL. As a 24-year-old who has shown potential, played with some of the best players in the world, scored 20 goals in a season, and put up more than 40 points, the Oilers should definitely be able to get a solid return for him. The problem lies in who he’s played with.
During his time in the NHL, he has been the linemate of Connor McDavid and more often, Leon Draisaitl. Those are two elite players who score a crazy amount, even at five-on-five, where their linemates don’t necessarily always contribute as much as they should. The Oilers are a great team on the power play but have been criticized at times about their five-on-five efficiency. This isn’t due to players like McDavid or Draisaitl, it is partly due to the finishing ability of players like Yamamoto. He seemed to be snake-bitten for most of the 2022-23 season, only scoring two goals and nine points in the first 27 games, two goals and eight points in the last 19 games of the regular season, and one goal and four points in 12 playoff games.
If you take a closer look, the start of the season is more concerning as the Oilers had a healthy Evander Kane, and Yamamoto was a top-six winger. Down the stretch and into playoffs is where the games started to matter, and Nick Bjugstad took that second-line role on the wing from Yamamoto.
Let’s take Sharangovich, for example, as someone who should have similar value as Yamamoto. Despite being older, Sharangovich was drafted in the fifth round of the 2018 Draft, while Yamamoto was drafted 22nd overall in the 2017 Draft. Sharangovich scored one goal and four points in the final 20 regular season games for the Devils and was scratched for all but three playoff games, recording no points. In comparison, Yamamoto should be valued higher as he was also playing in the bottom six down the stretch, and Sharangovich even signed for the same dollar amount.
Yamamoto sits at just over a 0.48 points-per-game (P/GP) in his career, has experience in the NHL, and has shown his potential at times, similar to three players in particular that were just traded around the NHL. Sharangovich is someone we’ve already dove into, but he has just under a 0.52 P/GP. Ross Colton and Alex Newhook were already just dealt for solid returns. Colton is pushing 27 years old, has a career-high of 39 points, and his career P/GP is below 0.44. Newhook potentially got the best return of a late first-round pick and an early second-round pick, has a career P/GP of just over 0.41, but is also only 21 years old.
It is problematic that there seems to be little to no interest in Yamamoto when these comparable young players with similar experience and production are getting these nice returns, and there is talk the Oilers might have to buy out their young winger. There’s no doubt he must be moved at this point, but the Oilers need to find a way to get positive value from him very shortly.