The Edmonton Oilers have two restricted free agents (RFA) left to sign, but after Ryan McLeod filed for arbitration, only Evan Bouchard could realistically be sent an offer sheet now. While many think that one could be coming Bouchard’s way because of what he has proved in his young NHL career already and his ceiling, McLeod was the one to watch for a number of reasons. The Oilers don’t have very much cap space to make their final few signings, so an offer sheet could hurt them if it is signed.
When it comes to offer sheets in the NHL, there aren’t very many that occur due to a few factors. The first is that the player being offer sheeted needs to actually sign the deal in the first place to force the hand of the team he is currently on to come to an agreement, to just get a higher salary than what was being offered, or to just potentially have the chance of playing for a different team. Compensation given to the team losing the player goes up the higher the contract’s average annual value (AAV) is. The Oilers can only afford to give Bouchard two years maximum at a lower AAV right now while McLeod, through arbitration or while coming to an agreement with the Oilers beforehand, could be for just one year and will be at an even lower AAV.
Different Opportunities on the Oilers
Bouchard had a couple of shorter stints on the Oilers as a young defenceman before sticking and the 23-year-old has now completed two full seasons in the NHL. The Oilers made arrangements at the trade deadline to provide Bouchard with a full-time, top-four role along with the opportunity to man the point on the power play. They did this by not only moving Tyson Barrie out of his way, but by also acquiring the perfect defence partner for Bouchard to allow him to learn and grow into the elite player he can.
Bouchard is going to get paid lots of money if he can replicate the second half of the season he had with the Oilers last season. While both he and the team should be alright with a bridge deal to give the team a nice window to win right now and for Bouchard to prove he’s elite, I believe the two sides will come to an agreement. Mattias Ekholm has been an incredible partner for Bouchard and someone he won’t get to play beside anywhere else. Not only has Bouchard’s 5-on-5 play been elevated, there is no other opportunity in the league to play beside Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl at even strength and especially the power play. Bouchard’s time on the power play will get him a lot more money than he will be able to amass anywhere else. The proof was in the pudding after Barrie left and Bouchard was put into the role the Oilers plan to keep him in going forward.
While right-shot offensively talented young defenders are very hard to come by and a team with lots more cap space could take a shot at offering him a couple of million more long-term right now, the Oilers would have to match it if it is even signed. While Bouchard has a world of opportunity in front of him and been given the reins to succeed in Edmonton, McLeod isn’t quite as fortunate.
McLeod hasn’t shown the offensive finishing ability that Bouchard has in his young career yet and that’s what’s holding him back from getting a long-term contract or a bridge deal with a larger AAV. An opportunity for McLeod that would be equivalent to that of Bouchard’s would be if there was room in the top six for McLeod to fit in to and if he saw some more power-play time. He is utilized on the second power-play unit, but if anyone is going to fill in on the top unit, it will first be Evander Kane and then Connor Brown. McLeod loses out on those points that would come more easily with a unit that clicks at over 30 percent, but he also loses out by playing on the third line with lesser talent.
The Oilers have not been known for having a string bottom-six in terms of helping out offensively and even though McLeod has shown a ton of potential, the scoring just hasn’t come as much as it should. His scoring did increase from his first to second season along with his ice time by 1:30 per game, but I can’t see the ice time going up again until at least 1-2 years down the line at best. The Oilers have two very capable centermen for the top six in McDavid and Draisaitl, and if one line is loaded up, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins steps in at center.
Related: Oilers’ Best Path to Successful Bouchard & McLeod Extensions
No matter how you look at it, barring multiple injuries at one time, McLeod is stuck on the third line. The Oilers like him there and like him playing in the middle because of his speed and puck control, but there’s also a max budget the team can dish out to their bottom six with the money they’re paying their top players. He’s probably going to get $1.5-2 million for 1-2 years, which is an increase from last season. Before filing for arbitration, a team could have offered him $3 million or more per season and the Oilers would have been stuck. I’m not saying he would sign an offer sheet or any team would have offered him one. What I am saying is that he is the more likely an underrated target. There is always the possibility he is targeted next season.
The Appeal of a Team Targeting Oilers’ RFAs
Other teams first have to think about their cap situation, the team’s cap situation of the player they’re looking to throw an offer sheet at, and if the player would even sign. If they put themselves out there and damage a relationship with a team, they better hope that the player at least signs so they get what they want in acquiring the player or puts the other team in a distressful situation. We’ve recently seen how a relationship between two teams can be destroyed with the Carolina Hurricanes/Montreal Canadiens back-and-forth offer sheets (from “Hurricanes give offer sheet to Canadiens’ Jesperi Kotkaniemi”, Montreal Gazette, Aug. 29, 2021).
Now we discussed how Mcleod would have been the more likely of the two to sign an offer sheet this summer if one was presented before the deadline, even with filing for arbitration, but it would again depend on the team. There is no way he gets top-six minutes as a centerman in Edmonton, but on a younger/less experienced team, he could be seen as a player with second-line potential long-term. He has the speed and skill and if surrounded by more offensively minded players and finishers along with more of an opportunity, he could shine. I’m sure the Oilers realize this and are trying to keep him around at all costs without this problem being presented.
But what if a team like the Chicago Blackhawks extended the opportunity to him at $4 million for a couple of years or do in the future? They’ve had no issue giving veterans who aren’t nearly as good as McLeod those same contracts this summer and have lots of cap space. There would be a better opportunity there to slot right in on the second line, be given much more special teams time, and have more money in his pocket. The only downside, he will join a worse team while he could stick with the Oilers and be one of the Stanley Cup favourites over and over.
McLeod is only 23 years old and has two NHL seasons under his belt. He is bound to get much better, especially watching and learning under the Oilers’ elite centermen. His analytics are strong and definitely support the argument that he could handle much more responsibility and be worth more than the Oilers can afford right now. Seeing as his AAV would still be relatively low, teams will now have another year to watch the situation in Edmonton closely and see his development. A team looking to send an offer sheet that is lower in AAV would not have to give up much at all in the way of compensation to the Oilers, making it a lose-lose if they can’t or are unwilling to make another move and match the offer sheet.
Of course, this is all speculative and a number of things would have to go wrong for the Oilers to lose McLeod in the future or even Bouchard this summer. I believe it’s just a matter of time until they are both bridged and the Oilers will have a short and wide-open window to win in the next couple of seasons with both on their team playing big roles.
