If you were to ask NHL fans which Canadian team had the best shot at winning the Stanley Cup, the resounding answer would be the Edmonton Oilers. Though they haven’t had as good of a regular season to date as the Winnipeg Jets, they’ve been able to go on some lengthy playoff runs in the Connor McDavid/Leon Draisaitl era, including last season, which saw them advance to the Stanley Cup Final.
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A quick look at the NHL standings would suggest the Oilers are having another strong season to date. Despite being on a three-game losing streak, they sit fifth in the Western Conference and seventh in the NHL standings with a 34-19-4 record. A deeper dive, however, would show you that this current team has some major flaws and isn’t as strong as the standings indicate.
Oilers Getting By Thanks to Overtime Wins
Though only four teams in the NHL have more wins than the Oilers’ 34, how other top teams in the standings have gotten their wins is far different. The Oilers, who have some of the most skill in the league, have had some great success in overtime this season.
That may not sound like a bad thing, but it’s important to remember that regular season overtime is 3-on-3, whereas overtime in playoffs continues to be played at 5-on-5. Of the Oilers’ 34 wins this season, just 25 have come in regulation. That goes to suggest that they have trouble closing out games, and rely on their skill to shine in 3-on-3 play.
The Oilers’ 25 regulation wins rank much lower amongst NHL teams, with 13 having amassed 26 or more. Their struggles to pick up wins in regulation haven’t been an issue during the regular season, but could come back to bite them once the playoffs begin.
Can’t Get Big Saves
Another major issue for this Oilers team is that they don’t have a goalie they can rely on. Many grew frustrated with Stuart Skinner a season ago, though he seemed to ease the nerves of many fans thanks to some strong play in both the Western Conference and Stanley Cup Final. It seemed to suggest that he was indeed capable of being a number-one goalie, but his play in 2024-25 has once again been frustrating.
Skinner has appeared in 38 games this season, posting a 2.81 goals-against average (GAA) along with a .898 save percentage (SV%). Those numbers are far less than ideal, though it’s his more advanced stats that paint an even scarier picture.
Skinner’s minus-4.06 goals saved above average (GSAA) ranks 64th amongst all NHL goaltenders who have made 10 or more appearances this season. His 3.43 goals saved above expected (GSAx) is better, but still ranks 35th amongst all goalies with 10 or more appearances. Calvin Pickard, meanwhile, sports a minus-3.38 GSAA along with a minus-6.51 GSAx.
There’s been plenty of talk about what the Oilers will add ahead of the trade deadline, and many believe goaltending should be their top focus. There are several intriguing names on the market including Jordan Binnington, John Gibson, and Karel Vejmelka.
Getting Little Secondary Scoring
The one issue nobody foresaw with the Oilers this season was a potential lack of scoring. They’ve already had a high-powered offence for several years now thanks to the likes of McDavid, Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Evan Bouchard. The additions of Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson in the offseason seemed to put them over the top in terms of offensive production.
While McDavid and Draisaitl are continuing to dominate the stats sheet, however, the rest of the Oilers bunch have been quiet. Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins, and Bouchard have all taken steps back following big outputs in 2023-24, while Skinner and Arvidsson have had rather minimal impacts.
Though the Oilers do still sit tied for fifth in goals this season with 188, that total is heavily inflated thanks to their outstanding duo up front. They aren’t getting the contributions elsewhere that everyone expected, making cause for major concern that if either McDavid or Draisaitl were to get banged up, this team would struggle to find the back of the net.
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Getting Evander Kane back from injury should help, but it remains to be seen how he’ll look after such a long time off. There is a valid argument to be made that adding a top-six scoring winger to this group may be of utmost importance, something nobody would have imagined suggesting before the season began.
Oilers Need Big Deadline Move
Whether they add in net, up front, or on the back end, general manager Stan Bowman needs to come up with a big move to improve this roster. It may seem naïve to say given how much success they had a season ago, but this group doesn’t feel like one that is deep enough to win the Stanley Cup.
