The NHL’s salary cap is finally expected to rise significantly next season (2024-25) after a few years of minimal increases. The Board of Governors meeting estimated that the cap will rise to $87.675 million next season for an additional $4.175 million in space.
Contenders and teams that have been pushing the cap limits for years will benefit the most, like the Edmonton Oilers. The Oilers have been tight against the cap for years. In 2023-24, it meant running with a short roster this season. Instead of the maximum allowed of 23 players, the Oilers have had 21, for the most part, giving them one extra player to sit out each game and practice with the team.
It has also meant reduced competition in the bottom six, with fewer players fighting for playing time. The Oilers have either gone with one extra forward or one extra defenseman (typically Philip Broberg). When injuries occur, it makes things even more difficult while right at the cap to call players up to fill those holes in the lineup. The team has already had to use emergency recalls this season due to injuries to Mattias Janmark, Dylan Holloway, and Brown. The Oilers benefit by having more room to keep a full roster in the future. There are also several more benefits to help this team keep players and have the most competitive roster.
Oilers’ Overages & Buyouts
The Oilers only have one buyout on the books, James Neal’s contract, which lasts through next season. The cap hit is worth $1.916 million AAV (average annual value), which is not ideal but has hurt the team even more, considering the cap hasn’t even gone up by this amount for the past few seasons to cover it.
Since Connor Brown has now played 10 games this season and hit his bonus, he is owed $3.25 million next season. The full amount won’t count against the cap, but most of it will, likely around $3 million because the Oilers are just under the cap and the bonuses being paid out count towards the difference in their end-of-season salary cap and the NHL’s salary cap. However much money that puts the Oilers over the cap limit for this season, it is an overage charge for next season and counts against the team’s cap. The increase in the cap will help cover it.
One clear buyout candidate this offseason should be Jack Campbell. He is in the American Hockey League (AHL), where he has both struggled and had some good games. The Oilers might want to give him another shot, but I don’t see that going well and don’t recommend it after all that has happened. The only times he has played well in over a season with the Oilers was in the 2023 preseason and in relief in the 2023 Playoffs. He has been given multiple chances and is being paid far too much to perform this poorly.
If the Oilers can’t trade him or he doesn’t get his last NHL opportunity with this team, there’s no other option than to buy out his contract. This will save the team some of his $5 million AAV for the next three seasons, but it will also cost them for three seasons after that. Either way, without trading Campbell’s full salary, some money will be on the books, and it helps to have some extra cap space next season for the team.
Oilers’ Contract Extensions & Free Agents
After this season, the Oilers have seven noteworthy unrestricted free agents (UFA) and four restricted free agents (RFA) to deal with. This gives the Oilers just over $7.5 million to work with from their UFAs and nearly $3.5 million to work with from their RFAs.
| UFAs | RFAs |
| Warren Foegele | Dylan Holloway |
| Mattias Janmark | Philip Broberg |
| Connor Brown | James Hamblin |
| Adam Erne | Raphael Lavoie |
| Sam Gagner | |
| Vincent Desharnais | |
| Calvin Pickard |
Now, the Oilers aren’t bringing back all of these players and all of them haven’t even been in the NHL at one time. With Gagner and Erne on the team and Janmark back from injury, Lavoie isn’t in the NHL. Erne and Gagner have also spent time in the AHL. Erne was demoted when Raphael Lavoie was last in the NHL and in the Oilers’ lineup (from “Raphael Lavoie sent back to AHL. What is coming next?”, Edmonton Journal, Nov. 14, 2023).
A few of these players are depth pieces that the Oilers could easily part with to sign better players or to have better pieces in the lineup. With a bit more money to work with, I expect all four RFAs to be back and some of the UFAs who have had a positive impact on the team…if the Oilers can sign them for a good price and they don’t impede the progress of the up-and-coming talent.
When the cap rises, players who become free agents at the end of the 2024-25 season can negotiate new deals. The three most important of these players and all big parts of the future are Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard, and Ryan McLeod. There is worry about Draisaitl not re-signing right away, or at all, but that is based on him being a top player in the league and being able to demand whatever money he wants. He is the most important piece to get locked up long-term, especially since seeing him re-sign will likely ensure Connor McDavid also comes back to get the job done with the Oilers. I can’t see these two wanting to separate, and Draisaitl is the first to have to commit with the Oilers on their next deals. Whether the Oilers win the Stanley Cup this season or next, having both of these players stay in Edmonton their entire careers, or at least until their next deals are over, is a big win.
Bouchard and McLeod didn’t sign their contracts very quickly and waited until later in the offseason after their contracts had already expired. Waiting until the last minute to sign both of these players again will only make things more difficult for the Oilers and potentially drag it into the season. At the end of their contracts, they will be RFAs again. Both took bridge deals (two years) and in Bouchard’s case, he has already been playing much better than his contract. There is no way around it, the Oilers must lock him up long-term at a bit of a discount so that they don’t have another Darnell Nurse situation where he requires an even higher salary to stick around. The Oilers should know by now what type of player Bouchard will become, so the longer they wait after he is eligible to re-sign, the more they will have to pay. The amount the cap is expected to go up is also around what Bouchard makes next season.
As for McLeod, his play suggests that he should produce way more than he has. He got his first goal of the season in his 22nd game into an empty net. He has had good chances all season, showing off his speed and skill with the puck, but the bounces just haven’t gone his way. While this will help the Oilers in negotiations, I bet they would rather have some more goals from McLeod going in this season and have to pay a bit more to keep him around than to see him struggle and get him cheaper. He has bet on himself with the one-year, $1 million AAV deal he signed prior to this most recent contract, as well. I have a feeling he will do that and be the one who waits the longest of the three to sign.
Related: Edmonton Oilers’ Chances at Making the 2024 Playoffs
Being able to ice a better team and take care of some of the costs that the Oilers have had to deal with these past few years will allow them to put a better team on the ice and win more games. The depth has continued to lack in recent seasons, and they don’t even have the money to keep a full roster. The increased cap limit will really benefit the organization, however, they choose to utilize the money.