Philip Broberg’s Hot Start With the Blues Shouldn’t Alter Long-Term Expectations

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The St. Louis Blues poached former Edmonton Oilers defenseman Philip Broberg with an offer sheet this past offseason, and the 23-year-old has been outstanding in his early days with the team. In just nine games, he has tallied seven points (two goals and five assists) and set a franchise record by registering a point in six consecutive games to start his Blues career. While Broberg has clearly bolstered the blue line, fans must keep expectations in check and look at the bigger picture.

Broberg Before the Blues

Broberg was selected with the eighth overall pick by the Oilers in the 2018 NHL Draft and debuted on Nov. 20, 2021, against the Chicago Blackhawks. Over three seasons with Edmonton, he played 81 regular-season games, recording 13 points (two goals, 11 assists) but struggled to find a consistent role. With 33 giveaways and just 16 takeaways, he had limited confidence from his coaches, who frequently shifted his line partners.

Since Broberg never had a stable spot in the Oilers’ lineup, he was constantly moving between pairings throughout his time in Edmonton. During his rookie season, he alternated between Cody Ceci and Tyson Barrie, partnered with Evan Bouchard the following year, and finally rotated alongside Brett Kulak, Vincent Desharnais, Troy Stecher, and Mattias Ekholm his third and final season with the team. Then during Edmonton’s 2024 playoff run, he primarily played with Darnell Nurse over 10 games. During all of this, he spent portions of each season playing in the American Hockey League, making it difficult to find his footing at the NHL level.

Breaking Down Broberg’s Hot Start

Given Broberg’s rocky career in Edmonton, it makes sense he found immediate success in a more stable environment with the Blues. While his play has improved, his early strong performance is largely inflated and is unlikely to be sustained.

So far in the 2024-25 season, Broberg has almost exclusively played with Justin Faulk. In nine games, the duo has been on the ice for three goals scored and three allowed. While those numbers seem balanced, the underlying metrics tell a different story. In over 136 minutes together, the Blues have been outshot 141-115 with the pairing on the ice, and the two hold an expected goals percentage of just 45.9%, according to MoneyPuck. They are conceding 2.6 expected goals per 60 minutes, the fourth worst among NHL pairings with more than 125 minutes together.

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Individually, Broberg’s point totals are inflated; three of his five assists have been secondary, and his current 25% shooting percentage is unsustainably high. His two goals also came from low-danger scoring areas that most goalies would likely save. Goals are always valuable, but the stats suggest Broberg’s production will regress.

Broberg Could Still Have a Great Year

While Broberg’s hot start is unlikely to continue, he is still in line to have a great first season in St. Louis. With Torey Krug out for the season, Broberg is set for increased ice time, including opportunities on both the power play and penalty kill. Now settled into the Blues’ system as a lineup regular, his confidence and chemistry alongside Faulk are likely to keep building.

Moving forward, Broberg should remain an offensive contributor at a slightly reduced pace. A realistic expectation would be to finish the season with around five to eight goals and 25-30 assists, with the upside of 10 goals and 35 assists, totaling up to 45 points.

Broberg’s Long-Term Expectations

When the Blues extended an offer sheet to Broberg, it came with considerable risk. He was unproven, and the move cost the team a second-round pick in the 2025 Draft. Yet his first few weeks with the Blues have generated plenty of optimism, and while he is already 23 years old, there is belief he can develop into the defenseman the Oilers once envisioned when they selected him in the 2018 Draft.

Currently, Broberg is skating on the Blues’ top pairing with Faulk, logging nearly 20 minutes per game. Although he’s been deployed as if he were an elite defenseman, he is not quite at that level yet. However, with continued growth, he could emerge as an above-average top-four defenseman throughout his prime—an excellent outcome for someone fighting to make the NHL a year ago.

While his hot start may not be sustainable, Blues fans have every reason to feel optimistic about Broberg. He has shown significant promise and is likely to become more comfortable and effective as he builds chemistry with his teammates, making him a potential cornerstone on the St. Louis blueline for years to come.

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