As of this writing on Friday, Nov. 3, 2023, there are some surprises when looking at the NHL standings.
In the Atlantic, the Tampa Bay Lightning are in sixth place (out of eight teams) and on a two-game losing streak. Beside them, the Buffalo Sabres are in seventh place, for those who thought this year was their time to rise (and it may yet be).
In the Pacific, 2022-23 playoff teams the Seattle Kraken and Edmonton Oilers are fifth and sixth respectively, dealing with injuries and poor starts alike.
It could be argued though, that there is no more surprising team in the standings in either direction than the Pittsburgh Penguins, who are both last in their division and are tied for the fifth least points in the league right now. Yes, as of this moment, the Penguins are a lottery team, one that would have a chance at the first overall pick.
They still have that pick, right?
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They don’t, except the pick is top-10 protected. This is why Kyle Dubas is heading up all things hockey ops.
Speaking of Dubas, let’s put on our general manager (GM) cap, because if a team this talented is near the bottom of the standings, something must change.
Related: Pittsburgh Penguins Need Jesse Puljujarvi
Since we had such a strong – and palpable – response to the idea of signing Jesse Puljujarvi for the bottom-six, let’s put on our hockey ops hat and look at another free agent Pittsburgh should be eyeing.
Bears are Stronger Than Pysyks, Which is Proven Physics
In the World Hockey Championship this past May, Ethan Bear suffered a significant shoulder injury. This in part led the Vancouver Canucks to not qualify Bear at his previous cap hit of $2.2 million. He went on to have shoulder surgery in June and was expected to be out for six months. That puts his timeline at mid-December-early January, and possibly a rehab stint in the American Hockey League (AHL) to get into game shape and up to game speed.
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This week, Pittsburgh signed Mark Pysyk to a second professional tryout, the first coming in training camp where he got injured. The whisper around the team was that Pysyk, the 31-year-old analytics darling and former first-round draft pick who had never been more than a third-pair defenseman, was brought in to challenge, and hopefully take, the spot of Chad Ruhwedel as the third pair, right defenseman. Now that Pysyk is apparently healthy and Ruhwedel, after a poor season in 2022-23, is off to a challenging start to the season, the Penguins have time to see if Pysyk can get ramp back up and challenge for a spot in the lineup.
This also gives Pittsburgh time to go after a higher-ceiling player.
Drafted by Edmonton, the Cree-born Bear was a fifth-round pick of the famous Connor McDavid draft in 2015. Bear was given a fair amount of defensive responsibility from the start in Edmonton, and had surprisingly solid defensive metrics. Those numbers unsurprisingly improved in a better defensive environment with the Carolina Hurricanes last season, under one of the league’s best head coaches and systems masters in Rod Brind’Amour.
While in Edmonton, because of how he handled such defensive responsibility at the start of his career, Bear was seen as a long-term answer to their top-four D on the right side. A middling and injury-riddled 2020-21 season (which, in hindsight, a young player trying to adjust to pandemic life perhaps should have been better understood) led to Bear being traded to the Hurricanes for Warren Foegele.
Being in Carolina last season and with no one, anywhere, in the entire world covering the Hurricanes, no one knows how he did last season, so there is some projection in this.
Tale of the Tape
| Ethan Bear | Mark Pysyk | |
| Height | 5-foot-11 | 6-foot-1 |
| Weight | 197 pounds | 198 pounds |
| Age | 26 years old | 31 years old |
| Career 5-on-5 Points Per Game | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| Ceiling | Second-pair defenseman | Third-pair defenseman |
| Floor | Third-paid defenseman | Press Box Nacho Tester |
In a world controlled by a salary cap, not only can you not ever have enough depth, but you can also never have enough inexpensive talent. That last part is essential to winning come springtime. The difference here is that Bear, who likely would not cost much more than the league minimum on a one-year contract, is your best bet for inexpensive talent, while Pysyk, who at times has been quite solid, has more clear limitations. It is much easier to be an analytics darling against third and fourth lines than it is against top-six competition. Bear’s youth and history of solid work against top lines on non-playoff Oilers’ teams while in his early 20s makes Bear much more projectable and should give Pittsburgh far more hope.
What’s also working against Pysyk is having missed all of 2022-23 with a torn Achilles tendon. Coming back from a major injury and a moderate training camp injury, it’s simply not a high-percentage play to assume that Pysyk will come back 100% and be able to be a contributor to Pittsburgh this season.
Bear is the Answer
Neither are offensive dynamos (it doesn’t feel like the Pens need yet another right-handed offensive monster), though Bear has the advantage here. Pysyk is the more physical player, though in his most recent stint in Buffalo in 2021-22, he was as physical as Bear was. Pysyk’s ability to be physical will be determined in large part by his Achilles recovery, and even more so by his willingness to engage, aka the mental game.
Last season in Carolina, and granted this was likely against lesser competition, Bear’s expected goals and relative Fenwick (any unblocked shot attempt) compared to his teammates was considerably higher, which spoke to how well he played, and that he was not at all a liability for Carolina. Pysyk could not say the same during his final season in Buffalo, which goes to show that throwing out terms for players like “analytics darling” doesn’t necessarily get updated with time (though that is what I’m doing right now, so…).
Ideally, you’d love a player with Pysyk’s size and Bear’s youth, a better offensive game, and a higher overall ceiling. Then again, ideally you’d not want to have to consider how signing a third-pair defenseman might just fix your depth chart enough to help you start winning. So, here we are.
Bear, in spite of so-called draft pedigree (which I will rant about another time) is the safer play, one with more upside and frankly, more youth on a team that needs all those things. Pysyk could well be fine, or he could be Ruhwedel with simply an easier-or-harder-to-spell last name, depending on your prerogative. Pittsburgh doesn’t need another defenseman who might be a sixth, or seventh D. They need someone who can be trusted in all three zones, and who can tilt the ice in their favor. Mobility and puck movement are king in this NHL, especially come playoff time, and Bear gives the Pens all these traits. He won’t fix the season, however, he is a step in the right direction.
Vote Bear in ’24! (Seriously though, didn’t the end of this kind of feel like a political ad?)