The Columbus Blue Jackets have played half of their preseason games after a 4-3 loss to the Buffalo Sabres Saturday afternoon at KeyBank Center. Now seems like a good time to do a roster check-in to see how close the team is to knowing what their final roster will look like.
There might still be four games to play. However that doesn’t mean there are four more chances to make an impression. Earlier in camp, coach Pascal Vincent said they’d use two of the final games as a dress rehearsal. This means guys on the bubble are running out of chances to make their case.
Welcome to Projecting the 2023-24 Blue Jackets version 2.0. In case you missed version 1.0, we wrote that in the summer as a baseline to set expectations.
There has been some movement in the ranks in this training camp. Our focus today will be to highlight those that have made a significant impression to date one way or the other.
Injuries are going to be a factor in how this all shakes out. Someone being ready to return or a new injury can change everything in the blink of an eye. For this exercise, we’ll project on what we think we know.
Roster Groups
We used this in our version 1.0 as a baseline. So as a reminder, the first group are those that require waivers. The other group will comprise of everyone else. This could have a significant bearing on how this shakes out.
Need Waivers
- Forwards: Johnny Gaudreau, Patrik Laine, Jack Roslovic, Boone Jenner, Sean Kuraly, Eric Robinson, Alexandre Texier, Mathieu Olivier, Emil Bemstrom, Liam Foudy, Justin Danforth, Josh Dunne, Trey Fix-Wolansky, Carson Meyer, Brendan Gaunce (15 forwards.)
- Defense: Zach Werenski, Damon Severson, Ivan Provorov, Erik Gudbranson, Andrew Peeke, Adam Boqvist, Tim Berni (once signed), Jake Bean, Marcus Bjork, Jake Christiansen, Billy Sweezey (11 defensemen.)
- Goalies: Elvis Merzlikins, Daniil Tarasov, Spencer Martin (3 goalies.)
Notables Who Don’t Need Waivers
Note: Not an all-inclusive list.
- Forwards: Kent Johnson, Kirill Marchenko, Cole Sillinger, Adam Fantilli, Hunter McKown, Dmitri Voronkov, Yegor Chinakhov (7 forwards.)
- Defense: Nick Blankenburg, David Jiricek, Stanislav Svozil, Corson Ceulemans (4 defensemen.)
- Goalies: Jet Greaves.
While the candidates for the roster hasn’t changed much, where they could slot in has in some cases. At this point, we take note of players who have played multiple games in the preseason. That indicates a strong desire for the team to see that player continue to make an impression. In other words, they have earned the right to play in these games.
That’s where we’re going to start with our projections today. Three players have played in three preseason games during this camp. Each have made a significant impression in their own right.
Denton Mateychuk
Perhaps no Blue Jacket player has made a bigger impression on the team than Mateychuk given his age and what he’s accomplished so far. Not only is he playing with different defensive partners in this preseason, he does not look out of place.
Mateychuk has a rare combination of calmness in his game along with the aggressiveness to pinch at the right time when opportunity exists. He hit the scoresheet again Saturday in Buffalo with a secondary assist on Justin Danforth’s goal.
Coach Vincent had glowing praise for Mateychuk postgame.
“It’s always based on their play,” Vincent said. But in those two guys (Mateychuk and James Malatesta), I would agree with you. They keep getting more confident. But Mateychuk has had an amazing camp. He’s been really good.”
Mateychuk said the guys in the room have been great for him to talk with and learn from.
“The guys are great. I think that’s the biggest thing,” Mateychuk said. “(Erik) Gudbranson’s been great for me. He’s really talkative. It helps make me feel comfortable in an uncomfortable situation. I think having one more camp experience from last year coming into this year, that also helps you get a little more comfortable. I feel pretty good over there.”
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We’ll discuss Malatesta in the next section. But to get that kind of glowing praise from your coach at this stage is certainly noteworthy. Mateychuk’s situation is well documented. He can either play in Columbus or in junior. That is unless an AHL exemption is granted. The general belief is that the Blue Jackets would seek that if he doesn’t make the final roster.
Mateychuk has earned his way into the conversation for making the Blue Jackets out of camp. Not many folks thought this could happen so soon. But that’s how great his camp has been. Injuries have opened the door even more for this possibility.
Jake Bean is recovering from an abductor injury. According to Coby Meier of First Ohio Battery, Bean skated on the main ice at Nationwide Arena on Saturday. That’s a good first step but he still hasn’t gotten into a game yet. Could this be the opening Mateychuk needs to make it?
What makes this decision even more interesting is the glut of right-handed shooting defensemen the Blue Jackets have. David Jiricek and Nick Blankenburg each want a shot at making the roster. Mateychuk being left-handed could in theory work to his advantage.
Where I still hesitate to put Mateychuk in pen on the roster yet is that the team doesn’t want to rush him. Certainly if he’s ready now, then that’s great. But the team can afford to make sure their prospects are “over ready.” Ultimately an AHL exemption would be the best possible outcome on a number of fronts. That would allow him a chance to play the pro game right away. Otherwise the possibility exists he sticks with the Blue Jackets during the nine-game window.
All options are on the table for Mateychuk. He entered the summer with most thinking it would be juniors again. While that could still happen, his camp has him in a position to make this roster. Even if it’s not this year, he has shown what kind of upside he has. The team has to be thrilled at his performance.
James Malatesta
The good times seem to be continuing for Malatesta as well. After winning the MVP at last season’s Memorial Cup, Malatesta has come into this camp on a mission. While we think he still ends up on the Cleveland Monsters, he’s been nothing short of impressive this camp.
“Malatesta is playing (his) typical hockey,” Vincent said. “(It’s) like it’s a playoff game every game for him. That’s how it feels. So if it’s not this year, it’s gonna be in the future.”
With so many contenders fighting for bottom-six roles, it seems Malatesta would be squeezed out by a numbers game. But three preseason appearances and being noticeable in all of them is exactly what you want to see at this stage. He’s put himself in position to make an impact no matter where he goes.
Although the chance is small, should he get more games and continue to make this kind of impression, we can’t completely rule him out of making the team. His camp has been that good.
Emil Bemstrom
Bemstrom is another who has caught the eye of Vincent. The play he made in Buffalo that stood out was on the 1-0 goal. Marchenko took out Tage Thompson on one end. Then Bemstrom put a huge hit on in the corner that freed the puck for Laine to score on.
It’s the overall impact that Bemstrom is making beyond scoring that has him in a place where I have him as making the roster in this projection. He had two assists on Saturday. That’s after his two goals last Tuesday in St. Louis.
As we’ve discussed before, if Bemstrom can find this kind of impact consistently, that would keep him in the lineup more often. Of all the bubble guys coming into camp, no one has been more impressive in my sight than Bemstrom. He didn’t look out of place Saturday on a line with Laine in the middle and Marchenko on the other wing.
Projecting the Roster 2.0
We will try to project a roster of 23 players, either 14-7-2 or 13-8-2. The battle for the last spot could very well go to the wire between a forward and a defenseman.
We thought the goaltending was set. However given Tarasov’s injury and the fact he hasn’t played in the preseason, the Blue Jackets went out and claimed Spencer Martin from the Vancouver Canucks. Should Tarasov not be ready for the season opener, Martin likely goes in as the backup to Merzlikins. We’ll see if we get any more clarity on Tarasov’s injury in the coming days.
The defense too now has questions. Just based on contract status, there are seven defensemen who have a cap hit of over $2 million according to CapFriendly. These being Werenski, Severson, Provorov, Gudbranson, Peeke, Boqvist and Bean. Bean’s injury could open up a spot.
I didn’t include the waivers exempt in Blankenburg and Jiricek. Blankenburg has been fine this camp but must prove he can stay healthy. But when he was in, he brought energy and enjoyed some success. Jiricek played with Werenski in Buffalo on Saturday and made a great play splitting a pair of Sabres defensemen to help setup Laine’s second goal. The Blue Jackets still do not have to rush him. They’d rather him play games than sit in the press box. We continue to project both to the Monsters due to their waivers status. But if Bean isn’t ready, then one of them could get in.
Forward continues to be a tricky spot. Let’s try to pick forwards starting with those that need waivers who I would consider a lock.
- Gaudreau, Laine, Roslovic, Jenner, Kuraly, Texier, Olivier.
Now let’s pick some who don’t need waivers.
- Johnson, Fantilli, Marchenko.
Here is what the battle for the final couple of roster spots could look like.
- Bubble forwards: Robinson, Bemstrom, Foudy, Danforth, Chinakhov, McKown, Dunne, Malatesta, Sillinger, Voronkov, Dumais.
- Bubble defense: Blankenburg, Jiricek, Bjork, Berni, Christiansen, Mateychuk, Svozil.
Lines 2.0
Here is my latest iteration of what the lines could look like and then I’ll say a couple things about them after.
- Line 1: Gaudreau-Jenner-Marchenko
- Line 2: Laine-Fantilli-Johnson
- Line 3: Texier-Roslovic-Danforth
- Line 4: Bemstrom-Kuraly-Olivier
- Extras: Sillinger, Robinson
- D1: Werenski-Severson
- D2: Provorov-Peeke
- D3: Boqvist-Gudbranson
- Extras: Blankenburg
- Goalies: Merzlikins, Martin.
Couple of thoughts. Notice Sillinger is not in my top-12. His waivers status is hard to ignore. If he can get to the Monsters and consistently play top minutes, that could benefit everyone involved. I also think Danforth and Bemstrom have been better than Robinson to this point in camp.
It’s also clear Voronkov is adjusting to the North American game. I had him on the roster in version 1.0. He’s on my bubble in 2.0. I expect him to get more games to show his progression. But he doesn’t need waivers either.
The Blue Jackets have tried Boqvist on the left this preseason. Should Bean not be ready, I could see them going with that kind of setup to start the season. I’m also assuming Tarasov won’t be ready.
There still remains plenty of questions to answer as to how this roster will look. This coming week will go a long way to deciding how Oct 12 will look like. Stay tuned as we’ll have version 3.0 out next Sunday.
