Some pretty big deals have been announced over the past few days in the NHL. Kirill Kaprizov signed a $136 million deal with a $17 million AAV. The Florida Panthers announced Niko Mikkola’s eight-year extension. The Anaheim Ducks signed Jackson LaCombe and the New Jersey Devils inked Luke Hughes to new deals, both worth $9 million per season. Even as recently as Saturday morning, the Minnesota Wild signed goaltender Filip Gustavsson to a new five-year extension worth $34 million.
It feels like more and more deals are set to be announced as the salary cap increases and teams try to get ahead of the ever-increasing salaries.
But at what point does a team make a big mistake?
Not Every NHL Team Will Guess Correctly
The trend now appears to be paying for upcoming production. Mason McTavish has had a couple of solid seasons, but the Ducks decided to lock him in as long as they could, hoping that he’ll trend in the right direction. They did the same with LaCombe. The Devils believe Hughes will be a star, and they are potentially even prepared to lose Dougie Hamilton in the process. The Montreal Canadiens, who are likely seeing the deal for Hughes and LaCombe as a marker for Lane Hutson, might be ready to swing on the defenseman and lock him in for around $9-$10 million per season.
Eventually, someone has to get it wrong.
Not every big deal that gets handed out over the next few weeks or months will be a winner. There will be an NHL team that sees huge potential in a player who doesn’t pan out as hoped.
Which Players Could Be Way Overpaid?
Although he has not yet fully developed his defensive game, it appears Hutson will be a superstar. The Canadiens should feel comfortable betting on the player. That said, there is a chance his second NHL season is nowhere near as good as his first. What if the Canadiens offer him $10 million per season or more, and he doesn’t continue to trend upward?
Related: The Maple Leafs Face a Big Lineup Decision with Easton Cowan
Are there other players who could be signed to a massive deal, and the team that signs it will be the cautionary tale for general managers?
Matt Poitras is one of Boston’s most intriguing young talents, but the Bruins really have no idea yet what he’ll become. The 21-year-old has made the Bruins’ roster out of camp twice in two years, a rare feat. But with just 66 NHL games and modest production (1–10–11 last season), Poitras remains unproven. If Boston extends him too early, he could easily become one of the league’s next overpaid gambles.
Jake Walman is pending UFA in Edmonton. He’s been great since arriving at the trade deadline last season, but his history in the NHL is somewhat cloudy. For still some yet unexplained reason, Steve Yzerman paid a handsome price to trade the defenseman, and the San Jose Sharks flipped him to the Oilers for a tidy profit. Now, as the Oilers try to keep key pieces around that have years before they age out, speculation suggests that he could sign a six-year deal, with the annual salary potentially ranging from $6 to $7 million. It could be a good bet, but what if it isn’t?
In Los Angeles, Adrian Kempe is set to cash in on a considerable extension. The Kaprizov deal has likely increased his asking price, which was already expected to be high. Could he get more than $10 million per season? That seems possible, given the current trends. The 29-year-old has outperformed his $5.5 million cap hit, emerging as L.A.’s top goal scorer with 139 goals in four seasons. However, with the cap surging and a potential $10 million AAV, it would test the definition of “fair.” Kempe has never been a point-per-game player. You don’t give eight figures to a guy like that and not feel a tad nervous that he was overpaid and things could backfire as he hits his mid-30s.
Dylan Holloway looks like he’s found his game in the NHL. Signed to an offer sheet by the St. Louis Blues, he’s in the last year of a two-year deal that will see him make $2.29 million. What does his next deal look like? It could easily be well above $7 million per season if he has another 60-plus points. He’s fast, he’s young, and he’s projecting well. He’s also injury-prone and is coming off one good season.