It might be a cliche, but an NHL team in a playoff position by American Thanksgiving will likely make the playoffs while a team out of position will likely remain that way. The New York Islanders were one of the few exceptions last season – they struggled early on but made the postseason.
It doesn’t look like that will be the case again in 2024-25. The Islanders are in last place in the Metropolitan Division with a 9-10-7 record following Tuesday’s loss to the Montreal Canadiens. Yes, they’ve played in plenty of close games, but the Islanders don’t look like a playoff team. They look like a team that deserves to be in last place.
Related: Islanders Must Make Trades to Avoid Another Wasted Season
So, what comes next for the team if they expect to miss the playoffs? A rebuild won’t happen, at least not with Lou Lamoriello as the general manager (GM). It also wouldn’t make sense for management to buy in on this season when it looks like a lost cause.
With this in mind, a retool looks like the best path forward, but with Lamoriello running the show, a retool will be different. It might not have the typical moves, but it could result in a few changes that will set the Islanders up for a strong second half and for success in the long run.
Palmieri is Traded
Kyle Palmieri makes the most sense to be traded. He’s an unrestricted free agent (UFA) at the end of the season and would offer the best return. Teams want scorers for a playoff run, and Palmieri is that, but he’s also doing it all this season, with 10 goals and 10 assists in 26 games.
The best time to trade Palmieri is early. His value is highest now, and it will only decrease as the trade deadline approaches. The difference between moving him ahead of the Christmas break and before the deadline could mean an extra piece for the Islanders. Ideally, he would be worth a top prospect or a first-round draft pick, but moving Palmieri now could mean both.
Trading Palmieri would automatically boost the Islanders’ farm system and the organization in the long run. It would give them younger players to work with and help them transition to a new era without parting with the key players on the roster.
Roy Gives George & Younger Skaters Bigger Roles
This doesn’t mean throwing in the towel on the season. Instead, it might make them better. The Islanders have a veteran-heavy group that’s made them look stale at times and like a team on the decline. The young skaters would give them a new look and could help them turn their season around.
Head coach Patrick Roy turning to the young skaters would mean two things. The youth would take on top minutes while the veterans would take a back seat and play depth roles. Isaiah George, the rising star on defense, is the first player who comes to mind – he can play a top pair role – but there are more than just him. The Islanders have a lot of skaters who can move up to the top six and lead the defense, which will make the team look competitive but also make them younger.
Even if the Islanders look worse to start, it will help them next season and in the long run. The younger players on the team will get much-needed ice time to acclimate to the NHL, which will make the decision look worthwhile in time.
On top of that, management would have to promote prospects to the NHL roster. William Dufour and Matthew Maggio have struggled this season but have the skill to make it in the NHL. Cole Eiserman is a top prospect, and if all goes well, he could join the Islanders this April. The youth movement would bridge the gap between an aging team going nowhere and a team with plenty of young talent that can make some noise once everything is figured out.
A One-For-One Trade
The Islanders have a handful of players who need a fresh start and can be traded for players who would also benefit from a new setting. It’s classic for fans to propose one-for-one trades where they want all the players their team traded in a big deal for other players in a grab bag secret Santa sort of deal. One-for-one trades rarely pan out but teams will occasionally make them if they really want to move a player (case in point, Pierre-Luc Dubois was traded in the 2020-21 season and the 2024 offseason in these types of deals).
Pierre Engvall is all but gone. He has six seasons left on his contract but as long as Roy is the head coach, it’s hard to see his role on the team. Likewise, patience with Oliver Wahlstrom is wearing thin at this point. He was a promising prospect, but at 24 years old, he’s still struggling to make an impact and perhaps could use a fresh start.
Considering a one-for-one trade is hard to pull off, and Lamoriello will need a trade partner who has players like Engvall and Walhstrom to deal, it’s unlikely that this will happen. Likewise, there’s no guarantee that a small trade would be an upgrade or move the needle enough to make it worthwhile. A one-for-one trade would, however, change things up in some way, which the team needs, especially if they are retooling.
Can Lamoriello Play The Waiting Game?
If Lamoriello doesn’t want to retool and expects his team to compete, the question is whether he thinks the Islanders can turn their season around without a big move. They are a last-place team – without their seven overtime losses, they would have 18 points, putting them in the basement alongside the Chicago Blackhawks. He can play the waiting game and hope his team finds its footing, but it will likely put the Islanders well out of playoff position sooner rather than later.
Lamoriello could wait for his roster to be healthy. Anthony Duclair was placed on long-term injured reserve on Oct. 19, while Mathew Barzal and Adam Pelech were both put on the injured list on Nov. 2 with a four to six-week timeline to return. With all three skaters back in the lineup, the Islanders will be better.
The problem with the waiting game, aside from the team continuing to play poorly, is that there’s no guarantee the Islanders will remain healthy in the second half. The roster has many older skaters who are starting to wear down. As the season goes on, the injuries will likely pile up, and the Islanders can’t rely on Barzal or Pelech to save the day when healthy.
Lamoriello could also wait in the hopes that some prospects will be ready halfway through the season, or in Eiserman’s case, he’s ready to leap from the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) to the NHL by the end of the season. This will allow him to add some youth to the lineup and keep his team competitive.
Why Lamoriello Should Retool & Not Rebuild
A rebuild takes a long time – it could take years even if everything goes right. As frustrating as the attendance numbers must be for the Islanders and their ownership group, they would be even worse during a rebuild. The San Jose Sharks have been retooling since the 2019-20 season, and the lack of fans in the stands and the many losses took their toll (players wouldn’t sign there, and coaches were fired even with little to work with). The Islanders don’t want the same thing to happen to them.
The Islanders, particularly, don’t want to rebuild since the timeline doesn’t work with their roster. This team’s core players are either in their prime or their 30s and only have a few good seasons left. If the team rebuilds, most, if not all, of these skaters will want out and probably Roy, too – do you think he wants to coach a rebuilding team?
Moving a few pieces will allow the roster to hit the reset button while still keeping the core together. With at least four or five players to work with, the Islanders are set up to contend if they choose to retool, and they can put together another great team by next season.
Lamoriello doesn’t trade away players and rarely, if ever, signals that he’s not pushing for a playoff spot. However, if he must, a retool is the best way to do it. The Calgary Flames recently retooled, and this season, they are starting to see the payoff. Maybe the Islanders should do the same.
